Two factions, one electoral rout: What went wrong for TMC in Bengal bypoll?

In its first electoral test nearly six months after assuming power, the ruling BJP has scored a perfect 100 in the bypolls in Nandigram and Rejinagar Assembly constituencies. As was expected, the BJP has retained Nandigram, securing a landslide victory with more than a lakh votes. What has come as a surprise, however, is the BJP’s performance in Rejinagar, a Muslim-majority constituency, where it has emerged victorious with a towering majority.However, this article is not about the BJP. Rather, it focuses on the state’s two principal Opposition forces — the two factions of the Trinamool Congress — both of which have been thrown into political rubble.After months of allegations and counter-allegations following a split and an ugly battle over the party’s name and symbol that eventually reached the Supreme Court, both factions contested the bypolls under new names and with temporary symbols.The Democratic Trinamool Congress, led by Bengal Leader of Opposition Ritabrata Banerjee, contested both seats with the envelope as its symbol. The Mamata All India Trinamool Congress contested only in Rejinagar and extended its support to Congress candidate Milan Pradhan in Nandigram. And the result? Miserable.The Democratic Trinamool Congress candidate, Safiuzzaman Saikh, bagged just 2,044 votes in Rejinagar. In the same constituency, Rabiul Alam Chowdhury of Team Mamata fared slightly better, securing 3,847 votes, and is likely to finish fourth. In Nandigram, the Democratic Trinamool Congress candidate, Ehteshmul Haque, secured just 853 votes and finished sixth in the electoral race. The BJP's winning candidate was Hashirani Rath, the mother of Chandranath Rath, the slain aide of CM Suvendu Adhikari.Though bypolls generally go the way of the party in power, the BJP, in this case, the results are particularly striking given the demographics of the two constituencies. Rejinagar has a Muslim population of nearly 70%, while Nandigram’s Muslim population stands at around 26-27%. Yet, both Trinamool factions failed miserably.So, what went wrong?NO CONSOLIDATION OF MUSLIM VOTESFor the undivided Trinamool Congress, Muslim voters formed one of the party’s core support bases. According to a Moneycontrol report, in the 2021 Assembly elections, the party swept 43 of the 44 Muslim-dominated constituencies, winning by a staggering margin of over 57%. A CDS-Lokniti survey also showed that 75% of the state’s Muslim voters had backed the TMC.In the subsequent general election, the party retained much of its support among Muslim voters. In South Bengal, the consolidation of their votes helped the party sweep several pockets of the region.However, the party suffered a setback in the 2026 Assembly elections, when Muslim votes became fragmented in several constituencies. The emergence of the Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) in Murshidabad, the Congress’s determination to contest independently in some seats, and the presence of leaders such as Nawshad Siddiqui in districts across the two 24 Parganas, Malda and Murshidabad contributed to the changing electoral landscape, helping the BJP retain its hold over several constituencies.Now, in these two bypolls, both TMC factions have failed to consolidate Muslim support. In Rejinagar, voters appear to have favoured Golam Nabi Azad, the AJUP leader and son of Humayun Kabir, over the candidates fielded by the two TMC factions. In Nandigram, Congress candidate Milan Pradhan appears to have benefited from the Opposition vote, with Mamata Banerjee having extended her support to him. Much of that support went to Pradhan rather than to the Democratic TMC candidate, Ehteshmul Haque.A STRANGE CRISIS FOR TRINAMOOLFollowing the split, both the Mamata All India Trinamool Congress and the Democratic Trinamool Congress are going through a strange crisis.It is undeniable that Mamata Banerjee was the Trinamool Congress’s most charismatic leader, drawing tremendous mass support not only for herself but also for her party colleagues. People largely voted in her name.However, when it came to building a mass connect and strengthening the party organisation, she needed leaders such as Anubrata Mondal, Narendranath Chakraborty and Madan Mitra. Many of them were local-level strongmen who controlled the electoral machinery.After the split, Team Mamata is left largely with Mamata Banerjee’s image, which appears to be fading with each passing day. Much of the party’s organisational machinery, meanwhile, now lies with the Democratic Trinamool Congress.But here lies the irony. Despite having these resources, the Democratic Trinamool Congress lacks a leader with the kind of statewide appeal that Mamata Banerjee commands. The BJP, therefore, can be countered only if the two factions find a way to come together.Which, in Bengal politics, seems almost impossible as of now.- Ends