Two coasts, three fee formulas, one Supreme Leader still to sign: The versions of Iran-Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghchi said on Wednesday that Tehran and Muscat had settled on the geographic coordinates of a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, and that a joint statement was in “the final stages of review and drafting”.Iran, having discovered its bargaining value during the war, has been adamant on retaining its control on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US and some of its regional allies were keen that this not be the case. (AFP)He added a caveat: the process would need to proceed without interference from “certain third parties” — a phrase that the Associated Press said appeared to refer to the United States – state news agency IRNA reported.Negotiators from the two countries are now waiting on sign-off from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, two regional officials briefed on the talks told AP. Khamenei has not appeared in public since the opening days of the war, when he is believed to have been wounded.US President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters in Los Angeles hours before Iran’s statement, said an announcement on a deal with Iran could come within 48 hours. “A lot of progress has been made,” he said.Similar diplomatic breakthroughs claimed by Trump have failed to materialise in the past.Why the strait mattersAbout one-fifth of the world's traded oil and liquefied natural gas moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, and the effective closure for over five months has pushed up global energy prices.Iran has held de facto control of the waterway since the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iranian territory on February 28, and it has since fired on commercial shipping it says has crossed without permission.Washington answered with a blockade on Iranian ports. Brent crude sat near $79 a barrel in early Thursday trading — well below the highs seen during heavy fighting, but still elevated.Ships had transited the strait freely before the war, with no fees or permissions required.Also read: Mid-air scare for Trump as chopper carrying him flies too close to passenger jetTwo channels, split by directionOfficials familiar with the emerging accord told The New York Times that inbound ships would use a channel hugging the Iranian coast under Tehran”s control, while ships leaving the Gulf would sail through a channel on the Omani side. AP reported the same structure.A senior Iranian source cited by Reuters described the same setup for inbound traffic but said the arrangement for outbound ships remained one of the main sticking points.A single merged corridor, mostly in Iranian watersIranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi, speaking to IRNA, described the emerging route differently. He said the arrangement was "designed in such a way that commercial ships will pass through Iranian territorial waters, both on the inbound and outbound legs", Reuters reported.Baghchi, in remarks made on Monday and reported by CNN, said negotiators were working on “a corridor that will have a two-way route, not two or three separate routes” — merging the pre-war northern route through Iranian waters and the southern route through Omani waters into a single intermediate one.The two Iranian descriptions leave the extent of Omani jurisdiction over outbound shipping unclear.Also read: Iran wants to charge for Hormuz, Houthis for the Red Sea: How straits around the world are governedIran collects fees on cargo priceAccording to the senior Iranian source cited by Reuters, Iran is pushing for a levy of 5% to 7% of the cargo price on ships using the strait. Oman has floated around 3%.Washington has repeatedly said it will not accept any fees or toll on ships transiting the strait.A ‘service fee’ split with OmanA separate Iranian account described to The New York Times avoided the language of tolls altogether. Under this, ships would pay a “service fee” for the environmental impact of shipping, cargo security and staffing, with revenues split evenly between the two countries.A US official familiar with the negotiations told the paper the Iranian account was "not accurate", and that any temporary routes would not involve Iranian approvals, permissions or tolls.How long the arrangement would lastGharibabadi told IRNA that Iran and Oman were negotiating a “temporary route” that would remain in place for two to four months, with a substantial share of traffic passing through Iranian territorial waters. "This understanding does not mean the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," he said, according to Bloomberg.Saeed Ajorlu, a member of Iran's negotiating committee, told the state broadcaster IRIB the goal was to set "temporary arrangements" of between one and three months "where Iran is dominant", CNN reported.Where Washington standsUS secretary of state Marco Rubio has argued publicly that state control of an international waterway is inadmissible under international law. “If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll and if you don't pay them blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent,” he said last month, in comments reported by CNN.Iranian officials frame the same question in opposite terms. Baghchi told AFP that “the factors making the Strait of Hormuz insecure still exist on the part of the United States, particularly the naval blockade and other aggressive and threatening actions against Iran and its interests”. Even if a deal with Oman is signed, he said, it would not on its own guarantee security in the waterway.What is not on the tableNone of the accounts described the broader agreement, including on Iran's nuclear programme, which remains unresolved. Formal negotiations between Iran and the US on that issue have not begun, Bloomberg reported.Gharibabadi said Washington had signalled to Iran it was “fully prepared to return to its commitments” under the June memorandum of understanding that had called for an immediate halt to military operations, according to Reuters — though he added that no direct US-Iran talks had been held in recent days.Separately, the Iranian foreign ministry has denied that any such negotiations are taking place, AFP reported.Also read: Trump claims US planned 'biggest attack since World War II' against Iran, but called it offWho still has to sign offA senior Gulf official close to the negotiations put the odds of a Friday deal at roughly 50-50, CNN reported. The Iranian delegation, the official added, does not include representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a hardline force whose sign-off would be needed.US vice-president JD Vance, in a Fox News interview aired Wednesday evening, said internal divisions in Tehran were slowing the process. “They have a fractured system, so there are people within their system who want the war to be over. There are also people within their system who are crazy radicals who want the war to continue,” he said.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a televised interview, called the current period his country's “most difficult time since the Islamic Revolution”, and said reaching Mojtaba Khamenei was “very difficult right now”.Even a same-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would leave global crude inventories up to 18 months short of replenished, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said on Tuesday. Every day the impasse continues, roughly 15 million barrels of crude that would normally cross the strait fail to reach world markets, the network said.