Turkish ambitions test American interests

Israel bombed an air base in northwestern Syria last month. Its rationale was that Turkish forces were preparing to deploy there and would threaten Israel’s northern border. Turkey condemned what it called “reckless Israeli attacks.” Washington stepped in to prevent an escalation, but the incident showed how volatile relations between two of Washington’s key partners have become.Turkey remains one of America’s most important allies. And one of its most difficult. Turkey possesses NATO’s second-largest military, controls access between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and occupies the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. It also increasingly acts as an independent regional power whose interests do not always coincide with Washington’s. Turkey is not an American adversary. But as its military reach expands, the United States must be aware of the risks.Disagreement is hardly new to the alliance. In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson warned Turkey against intervening in Cyprus and raised doubts about whether NATO would defend it from a Soviet attack. Washington later imposed an arms embargo following Turkey’s 1974 invasion of the island. In 2003, the Turkish parliament refused to allow American forces to use Turkish territory to invade Iraq. More recently, the countries have clashed over U.S. support for Kurdish forces in Syria and Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 air-defense system. As the U.S. gradually reduced its role in the Middle East, a process that started during the Obama administration, Ankara moved into the space Washington left behind. In Syria, Turkey backed rebel forces against Bashar Assad and became one of the most influential outside powers shaping the country’s new order after the dictator’s removal. Turkish troops remain across northern Syria, while Ankara is helping train and reorganize Syrian forces. In northern Iraq, Turkish forces are directed primarily against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. In the South Caucasus, Turkish weapons, training, and political support proved central to Azerbaijan’s victories over Armenia.At the same time, Turkey has also supported some of Washington’s interests. Turkey constrains Russian power in the Black Sea and the Caucasus, has assisted Ukraine while preserving channels to Moscow, and competes with Iran across Syria and Iraq. Its territory, armed forces, and control of the Turkish straits remain extremely valuable to NATO.But usefulness today does not eliminate risk tomorrow. Turkey could become a more serious challenge if Ankara developed broader territorial ambitions, American power in the region continued to recede, and neighboring states became too weak or divided to check it.The relationship between Ankara and Athens shows that hostilities could be potentially inflamed. The two countries continue to be divided over Cyprus, Aegean airspace, and competing claims in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. And while Turkey and Israel once maintained extensive security cooperation, their relationship has deteriorated sharply under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has cultivated Islamist movements across the region, most notably Hamas, whose leaders he has hosted and publicly defended. It also supported Muslim Brotherhood-aligned elements. A direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey remains unlikely, but Israel increasingly regards Turkish power and the Islamist forces Ankara supports as security threats.VANCE SAYS TED CRUZ IS ‘LIKABLE AND AUTHENTIC’ AS TEXAS SENATOR EYES UP A WHITE HOUSE BIDIran’s future status also matters. The fall of the Islamic Republic would weaken the armed proxies that Tehran has used to destabilize its neighbors. But the resulting vacuum could allow Turkey to greatly expand its influence across Iraq, Syria, and the Caucasus with fewer regional constraints. Conversely, a more pro-American Iran could act as a counterweight to Ankara.But the top line here is clear. Washington continues withdrawing from the region, and Turkey will have fewer reasons to accommodate American concerns and greater freedom to impose its preferences on its neighbors.