Turkey’s Cautious Bid for Regional Power

Excerpt At the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey presented itself to its allies as a mediator, stabilizer, and regional peacemaker. But Ankara’s grand strategy is more complicated. Its conduct toward its neighbors reveals a two-tiered approach. Understanding that dual strategy is key to understanding what Turkey wants from the region: “Turkey’s security does not begin in Hatay, but rather in Aleppo, Damascus, and Beirut,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared. “We will not allow a fait accompli in our brotherly countries, and we will not turn a blind eye to any attacks targeting them.” The statement was aimed in part at Israel, and it carried Erdogan’s familiar mix of warning and regional ambition. But it should not be dismissed as rhetoric alone. Read alongside Turkey’s broader posture, it points to Ankara’s attempt to expand its involvement in the region following the war in Iran. Turkey’s regional strategy operates on two levels. The first is coercive, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, where Ankara has increased pressure on Greece and Cyprus through military posturing and maritime claims. The second is less forceful. Turkey’s approach towards Israel and the neighboring Arab states combines both hard-edged rhetoric with diplomacy and ideological competition with economic projects to expand Ankara’s influence without necessarily forcing an open clash. That makes Turkey’s current posture difficult to reduce to familiar labels. It is not yet a neo-Ottoman project, nor is it only an anti-Israel campaign. Turkey seeks to become an indispensable actor across the region, in what Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan dubs “regional ownership,” arguing that regional states should determine the fate of regional events. Sinan Ciddi is a senior fellow on Turkey at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, DC. Ahmad previously worked at the International Finance Corporation and S&P Global. He holds a BA in international relations from King’s College London and an MA from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.