Tsikhanouskaya Warns Against Belarus Trade as Trump Looks Beyond Canada for Potash

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has warned Washington against expanding trade with Minsk as US President Donald Trump moves toward a major potash agreement with Alexander Lukashenko’s government. Speaking in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Monday, Sept. 21, Tsikhanouskaya warned that revenue from Belarus’s key fertilizer industry could help finance domestic repression and military infrastructure linked to Russia.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “Our position is that it is not time to trade with the regime while all the income from potash goes to repression, goes to support of the Russian war machine,” Tsikhanouskaya told AFP. “Any deal with the regime is very risky.” Trump looks to Belarus over Canada Her warning came the same day Trump announced that the US was negotiating what he described as a “massive” agreement to buy Belarusian potash. Trump said the Belarusian product would cost “substantially less” than potash currently purchased from Canada, which supplies the vast majority of US imports of the fertilizer ingredient. The president presented the prospective agreement as a way to lower costs for American farmers. Belarus has recently resumed potash sales to the US following an easing of Washington sanctions, although the size and timing of any new agreement remain unclear. Prisoner releases and sanctions relief The proposed deal comes amid renewed contacts between Washington and Minsk, with the Trump administration linking some sanctions relief to prisoner releases. Other Topics of Interest Hungary Refuses to Join Ukraine’s C8 Cooperation Initiative While initial reports listed Hungary among Ukraine’s new C8 partners, Péter Magyar says the country did not sign the summit’s political declaration. Earlier this month, Belarus freed 25 prisoners following talks with US envoy John Coale. Washington, in turn, lifted sanctions on two Belarusian state companies, Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom. The exchange followed a series of US-mediated agreements that have secured the release of hundreds of detainees since Trump returned to office. Tsikhanouskaya welcomed Coale’s efforts to secure further releases but cautioned against allowing the humanitarian negotiations to develop into broader political normalization. “What is important is that this humanitarian track will not transform into a political one,” she said. She argued that releases have not ended the wider crackdown by Belarusian authorities. “While releasing some people, Lukashenko takes twice more,” Tsikhanouskaya said. “It’s like revolving doors.” More than 900 people remain imprisoned in Belarus on politically motivated grounds, according to human rights groups and opposition figures. Ukraine and Russia ties Tsikhanouskaya also warned that additional export revenue could be directed toward military infrastructure. Belarus remains one of Russia’s closest allies and allowed Moscow to use its territory to launch forces into northern Ukraine at the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Kyiv has repeatedly warned Minsk against deeper involvement in Russia’s war and continues to monitor military activity along the Belarusian border. Tsikhanouskaya challenged Lukashenko in the disputed 2020 presidential election before leaving Belarus amid a sweeping crackdown on opposition supporters. She called on Western governments to continue seeking prisoner releases while maintaining broader pressure on Minsk. Lithuania took a similar position Monday, with Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys saying the EU had no reason to ease sanctions while repression continued and Belarus remained aligned with Russia’s war against Ukraine. The EU’s approach contrasts with Washington’s recent selective sanctions relief, though both the US and European governments have publicly supported efforts to free Belarusian political prisoners. “We have to continue our strong, principled policy towards the Lukashenko regime and support Belarusian people,” Tsikhanouskaya concluded. Belarus, the new Canada? Trump’s turn toward Belarus for potash comes amid a widening trade confrontation with Canada, traditionally the dominant supplier of the fertilizer ingredient to the US. Just days before Trump announced the proposed Belarus deal, his administration directed federal agencies to begin removing Canadian-origin goods from US government procurement, citing what Washington described as discriminatory Canadian trade practices. At the same time, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been seeking deeper economic and strategic ties with Europe as Ottawa works to reduce its dependence on the US market. On Sept. 16, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed opening the door for Canada to become the EU’s first “associate member” – a new status that does not currently exist. “We will move from CETA to an Alliance for the Future,” von der Leyen said, outlining closer cooperation on manufacturing, defense, energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence and economic security. Trump reacted sharply to the proposal, calling the idea “laughable” and warning that Washington could impose “very heavy tariffs” on Europe if he viewed the arrangement as hostile to US interests. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.