Trump’s squeeze on Ukraine exposes Europe’s strategic weakness

Donald Trump has found an unlikely culprit for the energy crisis that has followed the war he started in Iran: Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s attacks on Russian oil refineries (in a war started by Vladimir Putin).Heading into what look to be painful midterm elections, Trump announced a deal last weekend that will see Russia supply the US market with diesel. At the same time, he has demanded both Moscow and Kyiv stop targeting each other’s energy facilities. He singled out Zelenskiy for criticism, going as far as saying Ukraine should get a new president.Ukraine has had considerable success hitting Russian oil and gas production sites far from the front lines. It may be left with no choice but to curtail that “deep strike” campaign. The Trump administration plans to get its way by applying force to pressure points where Ukraine still relies on the US.READ MORERescuers conduct search and rescue operations following a Russian attack that struck a five-storey residential building and killed seven people, including three children, in Zaporizhzhia on October 10th amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Photograph: Daria Nazarova/AFP via Getty Images During Joe Biden’s time in office the US donated huge amounts of military equipment to Ukraine. That help dried up when Trump returned to the White House. Since last year US-produced arms and equipment shipped to Kyiv have been paid for by Europe and other Nato allies, through a scheme called Purl. Washington has reportedly threatened to halt this vital supply line and stop sharing battlefield intelligence.That would place a huge strain on Kyiv’s defences. Other western allies do not have a satellite network that can provide the same level of intelligence and Europe’s defence industry is already at full tilt filling orders to arm its own militaries. There are some weapons systems that only the US produces, such as Patriot air defence batteries, that can shoot down Russian missiles.[ Ukraine backs Trump’s energy ‘ceasefire’. But is Russia on board?Opens in new window ]Against this backdrop, EU foreign ministers on Monday agreed to expand the bloc’s regime of economic sanctions to cover a further 740 individuals and 820 Russian companies. Most have some link to Moscow’s military industrial complex.“Russia has started this war, we should not forget about this,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief. “If we want to end this war then [the] only way we can do this is putting more pressure on Russia,” she said. The list had been in the works for months and to some extent papers over the fact Brussels is coming up against real sanction fatigue.Latvia’s foreign minister Baiba Braže said European governments needed to “look in the mirror” before rushing to criticise the US. She pointed to a recent decision to lift EU sanctions in place on two Russian oligarchs, at the request of France and Luxembourg.The European Commission is not rushing into negotiations on what will be its 22nd round of sanctions targeting Russia’s wartime economy, which are separate to the measures this week hitting individuals. The process of putting the previous package together was a bruising one. Several governments blocked certain sanctions to protect national businesses and industries. Zelenskiy will have a chance to address EU leaders at a summit in Brussels later this week. He will no doubt make the case that Ukraine needs more help, not less.