Trump’s global fightback is about to begin – and it will get messy

Donald Trump delights in racking up notable firsts and breakthrough achievements, so perhaps he will derive a small measure of comfort from becoming the only occupant of the White House in more than 100 years to become a lame-duck president twice. The last was the extravagantly moustachioed Grover Cleveland in the 1890s – famed for his anti-corruption drive, ironically enough – who lost the 1888 presidential election but returned to the White House just over four years later. The term “lame duck” comes from the stock market, another of Trump’s fixations, where in 18th century London it described a stockbroker or investor defaulting on their debts. Now it denotes a leader whose political authority is diminished in the final years of their tenure. And let’s be clear, because of the term limits imposed by the 22nd Amendment, there will not be a Trump 3.0. As the results came in on Tuesday night, and Republican incumbents were swept away in ruby red states, Trump sounded like a delusional duck. “I wasn’t on the Ballot,” he wrote on Truth Social, “and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.” It’s worth recalling that the last time Trump had diminished power, he acted more like a deranged duck. This was the interlude after he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, when he propagated the “Big Lie” that he’d been cheated out of a second term. What now, as he ponders what to do with the 800 or so days he has left in the White House? Will these be twilight years, or something altogether more fiery? What kind of duck with “The Donald” become?Trump often responds to any perceived waning of his power with a show of force. So there has been conjecture in Washington that he could strike hard at Iran. We got an indication of his priorities in a pre-election appearance in front of the Reflecting Pool in Washington (Photo: Alex Brandon/AP Photo) A classified briefing on military options delivered to a bipartisan group of lawmakers ahead of the midterms spread alarm among Democrats. Senator Chris Murphy described the plans as “insane” and warned they could lead to a “devastating escalation” of a conflict which American voters clearly want brought to a speedy end. On the eve of the midterms, right-wing blowhard Tucker Carlson warned on X that the Trump administration “may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran”. Carlson, however, has made these kinds of statements before. Trump also noted last month that he “wouldn’t use nuclear”. This week, Vice-President JD Vance repudiated the Iran war on X, citing it as the reason Republicans lost both chambers of Congress. Trump conceded that was “largely true”. Now he faces a decision over whether to escalate this unpopular war with an attack, say, on Pickaxe Mountain, a deep underground facility linked to Iran’s nuclear program, or to maintain the present force posture of carrying out defensive US strikes. Oil is now being shipped more freely through the Strait of Hormuz, which might persuade him to stick with the present policy. Alternatively, Trump might conclude that he has already taken a political hit for the Iran war, which gives him more latitude to make good on the promise he made back in 2015 to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. Presidents constrained at home often turn their gaze to foreign lands in order to seal their legacy. Obliterating Tehran’s nuclear programme has long been a Trump goal. However, he will likely also exert further pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky to end the Ukraine war on terms highly favourable to Vladimir Putin. Vice-President JD Vance said the Iran war was the reason Republicans lost both chambers of Congress (Photo: Tom Brenner/AFP via Getty Images) Then there is the possibility of a trilateral agreement between Xi Jinping, Putin and Trump to carve up the world into different spheres of influence. China’s foreign ministry has indicated talks with the “relevant parties” are under way over a potential three-way meeting at this month’s APEC summit. That will strike fear into the hearts of diplomats from Westminster to Taipei, from Brussels to Canberra. As part of his “Donroe Doctrine”, Trump also might push for regime change in Cuba. Overthrowing the Communist government in Havana would also be in line with his “anti-Obama doctrine” – Obama normalised relations with Cuba during his own lame duck phase, shortly after the 2014 midterm elections. Or rather than promoting US interests abroad, Trump might simply travel on his $400m Boeing luxury airliner to further enrich his family. Here he may have some protection against any perceived wrongdoing. In its landmark Trump vs United States ruling in 2024 – brought in connection with the criminal charges he faced over attempts to overturn the presidential election – the Supreme Court decided presidents possess substantial immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts taken while in office. On the home front, Trump will aim to rule by decree by signing more Executive Orders. On Thursday, he added his signature to a proclamation preventing future presidents from making changes to his Oval Office and Cabinet Room, which Obama described during the midterm campaign as “looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory”. “We’ve had tremendous victory in this office,” Trump said. “So we’re making it a national monument, and it will not be allowed to be touched by anybody, destroyed, ripped down by stupid people.” Trump will be able to wield his pen to veto legislation passed in Congress. Over the course of his two terms, he has issued 12 vetoes; Congress has only overridden one of them. At Trump’s beck and call are also the Department of Justice and FBI, both of which are run by devoted loyalists. Trump has made his most diehard Maga loyalist, Stephen Miller – the chief architect of the ICE crackdown – his White House chief of staff, which feels like a middle finger to the American electorate. Or perhaps we already got an indication of his priorities in that bizarre pre-election appearance in front of the Reflecting Pool in Washington, where he spoke for 20 minutes about his vanity projects before even mentioning the country was about to go to the polls. Home improvements at the White House – and self-glorifying projects in the capital – seem to animate him much more than anything else. Even here, though, he will be reminded of the constraints on his now diminished power. On Thursday, a federal judge blocked construction of his planned 250-foot-tall triumphal arch – the “Arc de Trump” – shortly after a federal commission approved it. Crucially, the arch has not been authorised by Congress, which from January 2027 will be in Democratic control. For the remainder of his time in office, the battle over the arch could become a barometer of Trump’s waning power. The planned monument is supposed to be topped by golden eagles. Will this lame-duck president ever get to see them spread their wings?