Trump needs a scapegoat. And Hegseth is target No 1

It can’t have come as much of a surprise to Donald Trump when JD Vance came out swinging in the wake of what are shaping up to be the most disastrous midterm results for any US political party in living memory. With an eye on his own fraying prospects for a 2028 presidential run, the Vice President posted a long analysis on X of why the midterms had been lost, and so badly. His core verdict was a simple one: “The reason we lost is the war.” What was surprising was the President’s reaction. Presented with Vance’s disloyal comments, he admitted: “It’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit. But at the same time, if I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again.” Shorts Anyone who thinks this signals that the midterms will give the world a new, collaborative, reflective Trump is surely mistaken. What it signals is that Trump knows his party will need a scapegoat for an electoral disaster – and that he implicitly agrees with his Vice President who that should be: his self-styled “Secretary of War”, Pete Hegseth. At this stage, Hegseth resembles nothing more than the victim in a schlocky TV murder mystery on the night before their demise, in which they have screaming arguments with every other cast member, giving most of them motives for the killing – so as to keep the audience guessing as to who might deliver the fatal blow. Hegseth looks like an ex-politician walking. The man who has been busily demanding mandatory testosterone testing and insisting the US military should only feature clean-shaven “warriors”, is one of the most enthusiastic advocates of the war against Iran since its very inception, apparently agreeing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that strikes against senior regime figures might lead to a revolution in the country, where instead it has only strengthened the regime’s hold on the nation. The early enthusiasm for the war among Trump’s inner circle evaporated long ago. Now, Republicans despair as they are locked in a spiral of escalation, instability across the Middle East and soaring prices at home – first gasoline rises, but then thanks to higher fertiliser and fuel costs, so too does food, and then everything else. The affordability crisis and the Iran crisis are one and the same thing, and Hegseth can somewhat fairly be blamed for both. Donald Trump has said Hegseth is not on the chopping block – but behind closed doors, reports suggest it may be a different story (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty) Despite announcing a livestreamed execution and endlessly pontificating about purging the Defence Department of “fatties” and “weirdoes”, Hegseth has consistently won Trump’s support. On paper, he has had some reassurance from the President. “I think he’s doing a very good job,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday, after being asked whether the cabinet member’s job was at risk – but behind the scenes, CBS News has already reported the President is making calls, asking friends and allies if he should sack him. Expressing support in public while ordering someone fired is a trademark move of the Trump presidency. The problem for Hegseth is that even if he survives Trump’s ire over the next week, his prospects still look terrible. Democrats are unlikely to attempt to impeach Trump – at least, not immediately, since they would need support from two-thirds of the Senate – but as they control majorities in Congress, they can use that power against other officials. Republican House Representative Thomas Massie, a vocal critic of the Iran war, has signalled he will try to move an impeachment motion against Hegseth as early as next week – and it likely has enough votes to start a full trial. Lawmakers are not just furious over Hegseth’s unpopular and incompetently managed war, but also his constant distractions: obsessing over the physical appearance and sexual orientation of troops, blocking promotions of Black and female officers and firing or forcing out many of the military’s most senior leaders. The Iran war has fractured Trump’s core voting coalition. It is wildly unpopular in the country. It has been set up in Trump’s inner circle as the primary cause of the Republicans’ disastrous defeat – helpfully letting them sidestep the President’s deep unpopularity. And the manic and often absurd Hegseth has alienated people everywhere he goes. Whether it takes days, weeks, or months, Hegseth’s time in Trump’s cabinet is coming to its end. He might just be the very last person in Washington DC to realise that.