Trump moves to rebuild tariff wall. Will the results be different?

For all the political sound and fury around them, America’s tariffs have produced only modest economic effects.Yes, they have lowered growth, raised prices, and stoked inflation. Yes, they have flooded government coffers with new revenue. The administration remains committed to this strategy, signaling permanent replacements for expiring temporary tariffs and announcing new ones on Canada and Brazil as it moves to rebuild its tariff wall.But nearly 500 days since President Donald Trump first implemented them, broad global tariffs have failed to live up to the promises of supporters or the warnings of critics. Why We Wrote This U.S. tariffs rattled allies and rivals, stressed household budgets, and failed to boost manufacturing. But they raised big revenue until the Supreme Court annulled some of them. Will a rebuilt tariff wall be better? Instead, the lesson from these early days of big tariffs looks to be a political one. A president can rattle allies by imposing barriers to their products. He can raise a big but hidden tax on America’s middle class. Yet the response to these actions so far has been more muted than predicted.“President Trump effectively put in place a $3 trillion ... middle-class tax increase” spread over 10 years, says Marc Goldwein, senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonprofit fiscal watchdog in Washington. “And maybe people don’t like the tariffs. But I haven’t seen a tremendous amount of backlash.” Similarly, other nations have not retaliated against U.S. products as much as expected. Time will tell whether the taxpayer and international backlash grow as the president races to rebuild his tariff wall ahead of November’s midterm elections.Rebuilding effortsThis rebuilding effort, launched after the Supreme Court in February struck down his country-specific tariffs, is proceeding along several fronts. The immediate effort involves a deadline this Friday when a temporary global tariff, put in place after the Supreme Court decision, expires.That temporary tariff imposed a 10% duty on all imported goods coming into the United States. The Trump administration now appears to be trying to replace lost revenue (from the first canceled tariffs) with a 10% to 12.5% tariff against 60 nations that, it alleges, have failed to ban forced labor or to restrict imports produced by forced labor. These include America’s biggest trading partners: the European Union, Mexico, Canada, and China. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer answers questions during a Senate committee hearing on Capitol Hill, July 22, 2026. During a CNBC interview on Tuesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said action under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose trade sanctions on countries that engage in “unjustifiable,” “unreasonable,” or “discriminatory” practices that burden or restrict U.S. commerce, would be coming soon.At the same time, the administration is working to restore country-specific tariffs, which the Supreme Court ruled illegal this year in its landmark 6-3 decision in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump.Last week, the administration announced a 25% duty on Brazil. On Monday, it unveiled a 50% levy on imports from Canada to take effect in 30 days if the two sides don’t reach an agreement. These actions exclude certain key products, namely those that could turn voters in the upcoming midterms. Even the blanket forced-labor tariffs are reduced for certain textile producers that U.S. consumers rely on.Busting new movesMore country-specific moves are expected. The Brazil and Canada duties don’t rely on the legal authority the Trump administration used in its first round of tariffs last year. At the time, Mr. Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which doesn’t mention tariff-setting privileges. The court ruled that the IEEPA does not authorize tariffs.The new duties, by contrast, rest on laws that do allow tariffs. The moves against Brazil involve the well-tested Section 301 of the 1974 act. The Canadian duties rest on a never-used provision of the largely reviled 1930 Tariff Act, more commonly known as the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which didn’t alleviate – and might have prolonged – the Great Depression.The third prong of the administration’s tariff effort targets specific products, regardless of their origin. The president has imposed duties on various items in the steel, aluminum, automotive, semiconductor, and other sectors. On Tuesday, he posted that he would impose a 100% tariff on foreign generic drugs entering the U.S.One main motivation for the new tariffs has been to return manufacturing to the U.S. That hasn’t happened. America has lost 75,000 manufacturing jobs since Mr. Trump took office. The factory-building boom, which peaked two years ago under President Joe Biden, remains high but is fading under the Trump administration. While manufacturing and manufacturing employment have shown signs of a modest rebound this spring, a quarter of the average factory’s capacity remains unused, which is high by historical standards.As expected, Mr. Trump’s tariffs have raised prices and reduced economic growth. But the damage has so far been less than expected.If the administration activates the new Brazil and Canada tariffs and allows the current temporary tariffs to expire, U.S. households would spend an extra $550 this year, the Yale University Budget Lab estimates. If, however, it replaces the expiring tariffs with new forced-labor duties, the cost to households would double.Tariffs hit the poor hardestTariffs cost the rich more than the poor in strictly dollar terms. But in terms of share of household income, the opposite is true, especially for the poorest 10%. (See chart.)Tariffs also slow economic growth, albeit only slightly. In fact, the Yale Budget Lab believes the worst of the global tariff repercussions has already happened. Now, it reports, tariffs could boost the economy a little next year and then settle down as only a small net drag: less than one-tenth of a percentage point. Other analysts see a more severe drag over time, but not enough to wipe out the potential increase in federal revenue.Then there’s the inflation effect, which is hard to pin down. Tariffs modestly raised prices, and the inflationary effect is largely over, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech this month.But new trade moves could raise it again, he warned, especially if companies try to pass some of the price increases to consumers.