Trump has just given Netanyahu a route to victory – and it doesn’t involve peace

Former BBC foreign correspondent, reporting in Belgrade, Athens, Cairo, Jerusalem, Kabul, Beirut, and Washington DC. He has won numerous awards, including two Emmys for his coverage of the Syrian civil war. The agreement by an exhausted and defeated Hamas to give up their weapons is historic and unprecedented – but it does not guarantee the withdrawal of Israeli forces, nor an end to the war in Gaza. That depends on a careful sequencing of actions by two bitterly mistrustful enemies. The deal was announced by Donald Trump, who said that months of talks in Egypt on disarming Hamas had achieved a breakthrough. This was a “monumental” step towards peace and security in Gaza, he said. “One year ago there was a violent raging war, humanitarian crisis and hostages kept in brutal captivity. We have made historic progress and there is still much work to do.” Hamas stands for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya, the “Islamic Resistance Movement”. Armed resistance is “at the heart” of this, according to its 2017 charter “the strategic choice for protecting… the rights of the Palestinian people”. Now, much weakened, Hamas have taken what one Palestinian official described as the most consequential decision in their history, to abandon the armed struggle. Under terms of the deal, they will hand over all their weapons to the committee of Palestinian technocrats set up to run Gaza under Trump’s peace plan. Hamas will provide maps of their tunnel networks, arms depots, and underground missile factories, which will be destroyed. Israeli troops will withdraw, replaced by a new Palestinian police force and international peacekeepers. An official involved in the talks was quoted as saying Gaza would run on the principle of “one authority, one law, one weapon.” It is supposed to start with the Gaza police force, who are due to hand over their service weapons within two weeks; the police force excludes the vast majority of Hamas fighters, and they should surrender their heavy weaponry in the course of the next year. Finally, “personal” weapons will have to be given up. There will then be an amnesty for Hamas members who give up their guns and remain in Gaza. But there is already disagreement over the sequencing of events. That may be enough to blow up the deal before any of it is implemented. A Hamas official involved in the negotiations, Ghazi Hamad, told Reuters that disarmament will happen only after Israel meets ‌its commitments under the first phase of ​the Gaza ceasefire agreed last year. Under that agreement, he said, Israel was obliged to end ‌its ⁠attacks in Gaza and withdraw its forces to where they stood in October. Hamad added that Israel also had to increase the flow of goods and aid coming into Gaza. Only then, he said, would Hamas ​agree to ​hand over its ⁠weapons to the technocrats appointed by Trump – the new National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. However, as news of the breakthrough began to leak, Israeli officials were quoted as saying that precisely the opposite would have to happen: first Hamas would disarm, then Israel would withdraw from the so-called Yellow Line. (This is the line on the map that shows Israel’s forward positions, and it almost cuts Gaza in half.) At the time of writing, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is yet to speak about the deal. But his office has – as the Times of Israel put it – “poured cold water” on what was agreed in Cairo. The paper quoted a statement saying that the disarmament proposal did not meet Israel’s demands for a full demilitarisation of Gaza in exchange for withdrawals by the Israeli army. The Israeli TV network, i24News, quoted an Israeli official “familiar” with the peace negotiations, who said the current roadmap for Gaza did not “adequately address” Israel’s security requirements. The Israeli government had “conveyed its reservations” to envoy Tony Blair, the official said. “Israel’s stance remains firm: there will be no Israeli withdrawal from the Yellow Line in Gaza before Hamas is disarmed and the Strip is fully demilitarised.” There has been a harsh reaction from the Israeli Prime Minister’s political allies. They included Moshe Sa’ada, a member of the Knesset from Netanyahu’s Likud Party. Ultimately, he said, there would “no other option” in Gaza “apart from military rule and end-to-end occupation.” Even before Trump announced the deal, the far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, attacked it. In a post on X, he said: “The only solution in Gaza to which Israel is willing to be a partner is encouraging emigration and destroying Hamas.” He added: “You only talk with Nazis through the crosshairs – and no other way.” A senior White House official responded to all this by saying that President Trump would be “very disappointed” if Netanyahu did anything to obstruct the Gaza peace deal. The Israeli Prime Minister is, however, faced with a closely contested elections in October. Facing down a US president and spurning Hamas may be his ticket to victory.