Trump and Xi didn’t ‘talk much’ about Taiwan. What does that say about where it stands?

TAIPEI – A day after Chinese President Xi Jinping left Washington following his whirlwind visit, President Donald Trump told reporters that Xi “understands very much” how he feels about Taiwan.But Trump did not elaborate further, or say what the two leaders discussed at last week’s White House summit.“We didn’t talk about it too much, right now, it’s fine, it’s just moving along. We didn’t spend a lot of time talking about Taiwan. He understands very much how I feel,” Trump said.This vagueness is not inconsistent with the US’ one-China policy, bound in communiques and assurances accrued over the years as the US-China relationship went through ups and downs.While Trump said he and Xi did not spend a lot of time talking about Taiwan, his remarks about World War II at the state dinner on Sept 24 had, perhaps, offered a clue on how he feels about the island.“Look at the greatness that we had together fighting in World War II. Brave American pilots volunteered to come to China and fight for the very survival of the legendary country and that legendary Flying Tigers group,” said Trump.He was referring to a group of American volunteer pilots, nicknamed the “Flying Tigers”, formed in 1941 to help China fight Japan’s invasion, before the US officially joined the war.Xi said at the same state dinner that the Chinese and American people “stood shoulder to shoulder in the fight against Japanese militarist aggressors”.News outlets in Taiwan were quick to point out that the pilots were recruited and led by American military aviator Claire Chennault, who was the aviation adviser of Chinese military commander Chiang Kai-shek.Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council issued a correction on Sept 25: “The People’s Republic of China, established only in 1949, did not exist during the war… It was the Republic of China that truly fought alongside the United States.”The council added: “The Communist Party’s erroneous narrative cannot erase the Republic of China’s historical contribution during World War II.”The Republic of China is Taiwan’s official name.Taiwan protested again when a post-Summit fact sheet issued by the White House on Sept 25 implied that Washington acquiesced with Beijing’s take on history.The fact sheet omitted any direct mention of Taiwan, but one of the points read: “The two leaders recalled that the United States and China were allies in World War II and fought side by side to win the war.”Speaking to the Taiwanese media on Sept 26, Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu said: “China is trying to replace the Republic of China’s role during World War II. I think this is something we should feel very sad about.”More than claiming credit for its war efforts 85 years ago, Taiwan, in its protests, was trying to remind the world that it was Chiang’s regime which received Japan’s surrender in 1945.After its defeat by Communist forces in 1949, Chiang’s Kuomintang (KMT) government fled the mainland and moved its capital to Taiwan. For decades, Chiang and the KMT claimed to be the legitimate government of the entirety of China.Increasing squeeze from BeijingUnlike Trump, Xi has been much less equivocal about how he feels about Taiwan.In his talks with Trump, Xi said that China hopes the US side will adhere to the correct position of opposing “Taiwan independence”, and handle the Taiwan question with prudence, according to Xinhua news agency.Xi frames “reunification” as an inevitable historical certainty tied to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and has not renounced using force to take control of Taiwan, a stand that Beijing has taken consistently.At the first US-China summit this year in May, he clearly drew the red line to Trump, stressing that Taiwan was the most important issue in US-China relations, and any mishandling could “put the entire relationship in jeopardy”.Responding to Xi’s call for the US to “oppose ‘Taiwan independence’”, Taiwan officials stressed, as did US officials, that US policy on Taiwan remains unchanged.“The Chinese Communist Party has no right to represent the people of Taiwan; and Taiwan’s future can only be decided by the people of Taiwan through democratic means,” said Taiwan’s foreign ministry.Last week, as Trump and Xi met, Taiwan Defence Ministry continued to issue daily updates on China’s air and naval incursions around the island.Chinese military drills targeting Taiwan have escalated over the past five years. More recently, the China Coast Guard routinely runs patrols in waters administered by Taiwan, extending its reach in June to the waters east of the island.In short, everyday Chinese military pressure on Taiwan has become routine.The US has also delayed arms sales to Taiwan, with a US$14 billion (S$18 billion) package on hold for months. After the May summit in Beijing with Xi, Trump described US arms sales to Taiwan as a “very good negotiating chip”.Analysts say that with two more meetings planned between Trump and Xi this year, the US will likely continue to hold Taiwan arms sales in abeyance. The two leaders plan to meet again at the APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen in November, and at the G-20 Summit in Miami in December.Reading between the lines, shifting dynamicsWhile US policy on Taiwan remains unchanged, the strategic environment around the island is shifting.Behind the scenes, Taipei has kept up with close and continuous communications with Washington before and after the summit, the foreign affairs ministry told reporters on Sept 29, without sharing any details of the discussions.Observers, thus, have to look for other hints as to where Taiwan stands between the two powers.The “asymmetry” in what Beijing and Washington said on Taiwan is one sign, said Wang Hung-jen, Professor of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University.“Beijing wanted to elevate Taiwan as a condition for stable US-China relations, while Washington chose not to institutionalise that linkage.”His reading of the summit is that Taiwan has not become less important to Washington, and Trump has not accepted Beijing’s position.While Beijing wants strategic stability to mean fewer US arms sales and fewer high-level interactions with Taiwan, Washington seems to feel that competition can continue, including over Taiwan, but it should not escalate into military conflict, he told The Straits Times.“For Taiwan, the real question is...whether Beijing can eventually turn its definition of stability into actual constraints on US-Taiwan policy. So far, there is little evidence that this has happened.”Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University, highlighted the economic and military value of Taiwan, which makes it a “high strategic priority” for Washington.Freymann, the author of “Defending Taiwan”, pointed to remarks by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue in May that the US approach in the Pacific centres on “deterrence by denial along the First Island Chain”.Taiwan sits at the heart of the First Island Chain, the string of archipelagos that anchors US defence strategy in the western Pacific.Washington is working “quietly but actively” with regional partners to ensure that it can keep deterring an invasion of Taiwan or a treaty ally, Freymann told ST.Taiwan is also at the heart of the global semiconductor supply chain, producing more than 90% of the world’s most advanced chips that go into AI data centres and high-end phones.“Without Taiwan’s chips, the data centre buildout could not continue, and US tech valuations would make little sense,” he said.What has changed is, perhaps, the dynamic between the world’s two most powerful men as they skirt around the issue of Taiwan.“The key question is no longer simply whether US’ Taiwan policy has changed – it has not,” said Prof Wang.“The more subtle question is whether the timing and implementation of Taiwan policy are becoming increasingly sensitive to the rhythm of Trump-Xi diplomacy.”