Trump and more: 5 reasons why the GOP is in danger in 2026 midterms

By Tom Wrobleski | wrobleski@siadvance.comThe Republican Party is in danger of losing its slim majorities in the House and the Senate in today’s midterm elections. The Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats need to win at least 218 seats in the House and need a net gain of at least four Senate seats to control both chambers of Congress.Polls and pundits predict that the GOP’s House majority will evaporate and that the party could also be out of business in the Senate, the latter a possibility that was unthinkable a few months ago. Much of the blame could be laid at the feet of their president: Donald Trump. But the president isn’t the only reason why the GOP is struggling with voters this year. Midterm historyIt’s largely a given that the party that holds the White House loses seats in midterm elections. Trump lost big in the midterm elections of 2018, during his first term in office, when the Dems ended up with 235 seats in the House, according to the American Presidency Project. President Barack Obama saw Republicans roll up a huge House majority in the 2010 midterms as well.So losses for the ruling party are to be expected, but the question this year has increasingly become just how big any blue wave might be.Trump’s unpopularityThe president has seen his popularity nosedive since winning a second term in office in 2024. A day before Election Day, the president’s popularity stood at a dismal 39.2%, according to an aggregation of top polls found on RealClearPolitics. Trump has become so unpopular that some Republicans have looked to distance themselves from him on the campaign trail. In a bid to goose turnout, Trump has urged Republicans to pretend that he’s on the ballot. That approach may backfire on Republicans given the president’s poor approval ratings. The economyThe cost of living, including the price of gas and groceries, is a top issue for voters in the upcoming midterms. Trump in 2024 pledged to fix the economy but voters have not seen results. And for that they are blaming the White House and the Republicans. Normally a GOP strength, polls have shown Americans increasingly turning the Democrats’ way when it comes to handling inflation and the economy. That’s a bad omen for the GOP. The Iran warRepublicans are also feeling the heat from voter discontent with Trump’s war with Iran. The Silver Bulletin reported yesterday that approval for the war stood at 36%, up from 32% at the beginning of October but still low. Opposition to the war dropped from 60% to 57%. Trump’s military strikes on Iran caused disruptions in petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s being blamed for higher gas prices at the pump, turning the Iran war into a double whammy for the GOP.The enthusiasm gapA Gallup poll last week showed that significantly higher share of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (58%) than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (48%) saying that they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. In a more troubling sign, only in 2018, the year of a blue wave, were Democrats more enthusiastic about voting than now. A 1987 graduate of Fordham University's College at Lincoln Center, Tom began working at the Staten Island Advance in 1995. The native Staten Islander started his career at the Advance as a community board...