Truce and fire: The ghost of Versailles haunts Trump. But is Iran overplaying its hand?

Tensions between the US and Iran have dramatically intensified after President Trump ended a short-lived ceasefire and authorized fresh strikes, prompting Iran to retaliate by targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation is putting the global oil market at risk as Iran's capacity to disrupt shipments grows. Neither side is currently in a position to decisively end the conflict, suggesting a pattern of managed instability with intermittent skirmishes and diplomatic efforts. This situation raises questions about whether Iran's aggressive moves might backfire, potentially undermining its strategic goals.