Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Big Ten hype gives way to hard truths

Preseason expectations have collided with reality as several Big Ten powers continue to underperform Oct 27, 2026 at 9:39 am ET • 7 min read There isn't a conference in the country that has fumbled the bag quite like the Big Ten this year. Now, some of that is due to things outside of the league's control. Ohio State was living up to expectations, but is now dealing with an injury to its starting quarterback. Oregon stumbled out of the gate, but the poor start has been exacerbated by Dante Moore being sidelined for a month.Still, even with those injuries, there's no denying the Big Ten has struggled mightily this season, and the timing is terrible. After all, the league had won three straight national titles with three different teams, and many projected that Oregon could become the fourth. Even the most ardent of SEC wonks begrudgingly admitted that the SEC had lost its grip on the sport.And the Big Ten has thrown it all away through the first half of the season. You only have to look at the standings to recognize it, but the league isn't the only one. We've seen top contenders stumble in all the Power Four leagues so far, but the Big Ten is in a class of its own when it comes to failing to meet expectations.From a gambling perspective, Big Ten teams are only 36-44-2 against the spread when favored this year. That .450 winning percentage is the second-worst among all conferences, just barely ahead of the American at .449. However, while the cover rates are nearly identical, the margins are not. Big Ten favorites, on average, are failing to cover the spread by 1.82 points per game. The next worst league is once again the American, but they're failing to cover by 0.44 points per game. Here's a look at how things break down across all leagues.As FavoritesCover RateCover Margin per GamePac-1256.7%4.27C-USA71.9%3.92Sun Belt58.0%3.24Mountain West56.8%1.59SEC50.0%1.55MAC56.3%1.50Big 1255.7%0.70ACC45.2%0.56American44.9%-0.44Big Ten45.0%-1.82To further drive this home, Big Ten favorites are struggling like this in a season when favorites are covering 52.6% of the time by an average of 1.16 points! Favorites have been relatively crushing it all year, just not in the Big Ten.And it isn't hard to figure out which teams are primarily responsible. The Big Ten had seven teams ranked in the top 20 of the preseason AP Top 25. Ohio State has done its job. The other six (Oregon, Indiana, USC, Michigan, Washington, and Penn State) are a combined 8-28 ATS as favorites this season, and are failing to cover by an average of 7.76 points per game. That's more than a touchdown! It certainly doesn't make power rating them any easier. Dropped Out: Texas Tech, BYU