Tom Fornelli's CFP Vibe Check: The Dawgs are barking in Georgia, Oregon returns from the dead

Plus, which teams belong in Alabama's College Football Playoff 'Tide pod' and why BYU's hopes are now on the ropes Nov 8, 2026 at 10:08 am ET • 8 min read Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw. There will be a new No. 1 this week, both in the polls that do not matter in determining the national champion and in the one that does. There will be debate over whether it should be No. 2 Georgia or No. 3 Utah moving up, both of which won Saturday against top-10 teams. Someone will probably argue on No. 8 UCLA's behalf, though they'll largely be ignored.Regardless of who deserves it most, or who winds up getting it, I know which team I'm the most confident in right now: the Georgia Bulldogs.As I watched Georgia decimate Ole Miss 42-7 in Oxford (OK, so I only watched the first half), a thought occurred to me. Is it not possible that we all spent so much time talking amongst each other about how there are no elite teams this year that we collectively ignored the one right in front of us? Were we so blinded by the disappointments of many preseason contenders that we ignored the fact that one team was chugging right along the whole time, looking pretty damned dominant? Again, Georgia didn't just beat Ole Miss on Saturday. It went into Ole Miss' house and beat the living snot out of the Rebels. After forcing an Ole Miss three-and-out on the opening possession of the game, Georgia scored a touchdown on each of its first three possessions. It was 21-0 in the blink of an eye. Nate Frazier and the Dawgs' rushing attack did anything they damn well pleased. Gunner Stockton only threw the ball 15 times, but finished with 186 yards and 4 touchdowns. You don't have to throw a lot when you average 12.4 yards per attempt and throw a touchdown on 26.7% of your attempts.Defensively, things didn't get much better for Ole Miss after the opening three-and-out. They were held to 252 yards. They couldn't run the ball, nor could they throw it effectively. This was not a repeat of the two incredible shootouts we saw last year. This was one team letting another know that it was much better, and that all your foolish hopes and dreams were just that: foolish. I can see why we may have ignored Georgia's dominance earlier in the season. It's hard to get overly excited when the wins are coming against Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. But since that soft start, the Dawgs have taken down Alabama in Tuscaloosa and Ole Miss in Oxford. They spanked Florida in Atlanta. And while there was the loss against Auburn, did you watch the game? No offense to Auburn, as we never ask anybody to apologize for winning, but that game had a lot more to do with Georgia giving it away than Auburn winning it.Georgia is basically one Gunner Stockton running into his teammate's backside and fumbling the ball away from being 9-0 right now. Even in their loss, they were the better team!Perhaps it's true that in this era of college football, we'll never see the truly dominant teams of the past again. But when I look at Georgia compared to everybody else, I see a team whose "worst" is far better than anybody else's. In a season where it feels like you can't take anything for granted, Georgia strikes me as the most reliable team in the country.The Alabama Question No team caught more flak in the first College Football Playoff Rankings than No. 5 Alabama. The Crimson Tide were No. 9 in the major opinion polls, but No. 5 in the CFP, a full eight spots above a Tennessee team that beat them by 16 points. It was the biggest surprise of the rankings, and when the hivemind is surprised, it usually responds with indignation.So what do we do with them now? Alabama went to Baton Rouge and did the thing it seemingly does every time it goes to Baton Rouge these days: it beat LSU 31-13. But it was an odd 31-13 win. If you look at the box score, you might be confused by what you see. LSU ran 81 plays to Alabama's 53. LSU outgained the Tide 457 yards to 285. The problem is LSU didn't score, and that's kind of important! Alabama reached the red zone three times and left with 21 points. LSU reached the red zone four times and left with 10. It turned the ball over on downs once and fumbled a second time. LSU was 0-for-4 overall on fourth downs. It moved the ball, but in crunch time, when it really needed it, it failed.So while Alabama didn't dominate the box score, it controlled the game and made the plays LSU didn't. But here's where things could get weird. There were seven teams between Alabama and Tennessee in last week's poll, and four of them (Kentucky, BYU, Ole Miss, and Ohio State) lost. Tennessee won. It beat Kentucky. That win gives Tennessee a "better" win than any Alabama has, plus the Vols have the head-to-head. So what if those four losses by other teams put Tennessee in the same pod as Alabama now? Remember, the committee said they didn't use the head-to-head result between them last week because they weren't in the same pod, but now they should be. And Texas, which beat Tennessee, will be in that pod too. So how does this work if they're all in the same pod? Which head-to-head means more? And how do the resumes work?The point I'm trying to make, and one that shows you how comical this entire process truly is, is that Alabama went on the road and beat No. 14 LSU by 18 points and could very well drop in the rankings. Last week they were overrated, and now after their best win of the year, they may be underrated.What a system we created for ourselves.Oregon is back from the dead Two weeks ago in this column, after an 11-point loss on the road to Illinois, I wrote about the death of No. 23 Oregon's hopes and dreams. That's a whoops on my part! The Ducks beat No. 12 Ohio State 41-28 on Saturday, and the game was not as close as the score suggests. Ohio State scored two touchdowns in garbage time to do a little damage control on their resume. Whether the committee will buy it or not remains to be seen. As for the Ducks, plenty of eyebrows were raised when they appeared in last week's rankings. They were 5-3 with two losses to unranked teams in Illinois and Oklahoma State. They had fired their offensive coordinator. All hope seemed lost.Seemed is the important word, because after beating Ohio State to get to 6-3, the Ducks are still in the race. They can still get to Indianapolis and play for a Big Ten title as long as they win out and get help elsewhere. Their final three games of the season are against Michigan, Michigan State and Washington. Only the Michigan State game is on the road. The prospect of winning out isn't exactly a long shot. Reaching the Big Ten Championship might be, but even if they don't, it's not entirely out of the question that they could get an at-large at 9-3.By the time the season ends, those losses to Oklahoma State and Illinois could look a lot better. Oklahoma State is 6-3 and still alive in the Big 12 race. Illinois has won four straight to improve to 6-3. Both could be ranked on Tuesday night. If they are, and Oregon suddenly finds itself with three losses to ranked teams and with wins over Boise State, USC and Ohio State, they will climb toward at-large territory. And if you don't want to take my word for it, check your local sportsbook. Heading into the weekend, Oregon's odds of making the field were +2000 (4.8%) at DraftKings. After beating Ohio State, they're now set at +280 (26.3%).BYU is on the ropes Utah won The Holy War 28-20 in one of the most entertaining games of the day, and it might've crushed BYU's playoff hopes in the process. While BYU's win over Notre Dame looks even better after the Irish took down Miami in South Bend, I'm not optimistic the Cougars can get into the field without a lot of help elsewhere.The committee already had BYU at No. 9 with the Notre Dame win. That put them close to the bubble, and the Utah loss will likely take them out of the top 12 in this week's rankings. And when you look at BYU's remaining schedule, I don't know if there's anything on it that will help their cause. It's hard to see the committee fawning over wins against Baylor, Cincinnati and Kansas.It doesn't help matters that so many teams are jumbled at the top of the Big 12 standings. BYU is one of five teams at 4-2 in conference play, and they're all behind 6-0 Utah and 5-1 Texas Tech, which survived a scare against West Virginia.Considering how Tech has played lately, it's not ludicrous to believe it will lose another game. Hell, it might lose on the road next week to Oklahoma State. I won't even pretend to know the tiebreakers for how the Big 12 will settle all these things if multiple teams are tied for second place, which seems somewhat likely at this point. All I know is that if BYU doesn't win those tiebreakers and get a second crack at Utah in the Big 12 Championship, it will be very difficult to get back into the field.Rest in CFPeaceEach week for the rest of the season, we shall recognize the schools who saw their playoff hopes die over the weekendCincinnatiFloridaMichiganMinnesotaOregon StateUNLVVirginia TechWeek 11 Vibe ShiftersA look ahead to the five games on next week's slate most likely to impact the playoff raceTexas at LSUUtah at ArizonaUSC at IndianaTexas Tech at Oklahoma StateBaylor at BYUThis week's CFP ProjectionThis is a projection of what I expect the top 12 to be Tuesday nightGeorgiaUtahNotre DameMiamiIndianaAlabamaTexasUCLATennesseeKentuckyTexas TechWake ForestBoise State remains the highest-ranked G6 team and takes the final spot in the field.