To keep the Senate, Republicans must overcome Trump

(CN) — This time last year, the prospect of Democrats winning the Senate in 2026 was something of a pipe dream. But amid President Donald Trump’s tanking approval rating, Republicans’ hope of maintaining their upper chamber advantage come November is waning, according to recent polling.Even as the Democratic Party struggles to define its identity — with infighting persisting between the party’s moderates and the left flank — it now has a shot to topple the Republicans’ 53-47 advantage.Erin O’Brien, political science professor at UMass Boston, said the political landscape has shifted significantly in the past year thanks to Trump’s actions in the White House.“What’s changed is a very unpopular war in Iran,” she told Courthouse News. “Even strong MAGA supporters feel abandoned, policy wise, by the president on that. That’s not to say they’re necessarily going to vote for a Democrat, but they might stay home.”The United States, alongside its ally in Israel, began major combat operations in Iran in February of this year. Without seeking approval from Congress, Trump invoked executive authority to justify the actions. Since then, gas prices have spiked as the conflict rages on across the Middle East, contributing to worsening an affordability crisis Trump had previously pledged to address.O’Brien recalled that a cashier at her Massachusetts grocery store recently told her a woman started sobbing at the register when she saw her bill.“Nobody likes war, nobody votes for war,” said Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics professor at the University of Surrey in England. “Wars are incredibly expensive and they have a huge knock-on effect on the domestic economy.”With no end in sight to the ongoing combat, Trump has effectively handed Democrats a golden opportunity to take back the Senate. They’ll need to win races in several key states to do so, however.MaineThe tussle for Republican incumbent Susan Collins’ Senate seat in Maine has generated perhaps the most attention of any other race in the country this cycle. That was largely due to the emergence of Graham Platner, an insurgent progressive oysterman who stunned to win the Democratic primary with backing from young, anti-establishment voters.But when Platner’s campaign was derailed by accusations of sexual assault, the party had to scramble to replace him and continue to challenge what it sees as a vulnerable red seat.It settled on Troy Jackson, a logger and ex-state senator who shares many of Platner’s progressive values, albeit without some of the fiery enthusiasm — and controversy — that came with the oysterman.Jackson only entered the race in July, but still maintains a narrow lead over Collins in most surveys. An AARP poll from last week has him ahead of Collins by a few percentage points, as elderly voters reported frustrations with general affordability and healthcare.Still, Shanahan said it’s essentially a coin flip, thanks in part to Collins’ ability to distance herself from Trump and his agenda.“She has a very strong popular profile,” he said. “And she has been clever in what she’s done in that she’s gone against the president when her vote doesn’t matter.”Michigan Another race that has captured national attention comes out of the Great Lakes State, home to Egyptian-American epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed. The 41-year-old Democrat was previously a top Detroit health official. Now, he’s battling Trump-endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, a former U.S. Representative, for the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.El-Sayed’s candidacy could have big implications for the future of his party. An outspoken leftist who’s critical of the ultra-wealthy and Israel’s military violence in Gaza, he defeated a centrist opponent over the summer.Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive candidate in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan, speaks during a primary election night event Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026, at the Majestic Theatre in Detroit. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)Should he surge past Rogers in November, it could further legitimize left-flank Democrats ahead of the 2028 presidential election. That could potentially be a “massive headache” for national party members who’d prefer someone closer to the center, according to Shanahan.“I think the guy has a really good chance,” he said. “There are very strong Arab-American votes there, which could be decisive.”Meanwhile, Rogers has recently broken with Trump in calling for an immediate end to the war in Iran. El-Sayed accused him of flip-flopping on the issue since it’s now so unpopular.Most polls have El-Sayed with a very narrow edge on Rogers.North CarolinaRepublican Senator Thom Tillis announced last summer that he wouldn’t be seeking reelection, after a “no” vote on Trump’s spending package turned into a bitter feud with the president. Now vying for his seat, former RNC leader Michael Whatley hopes to be a friendlier face for Trump out of North Carolina than Tillis was.But first, he’ll have to get through Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor and attorney general, largely seen as a political titan there.“Roy Cooper is North Carolina,” Shanahan said. “The guy has never lost a statewide race there.”He appears to have a significant edge — up double digits on Whatley in a recent Elon University poll. Trump told reporters last week that he was “worried” about Whatley’s odds. Still, the state went for Trump by more than 3% in 2024, and hasn’t had a Democrat represent it in the Senate since 2015.TexasIncumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn is losing his seat in Texas after Trump endorsed his primary opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was victorious instead.Not helping Paxton at the moment is his longtime allegiance to the unpopular president, whom he’s supported through efforts to overturn the 2020 election and by enforcing a near-total abortion ban in Texas and beyond.He also has a history of scandals, as his surging Democratic opponent James Talarico is reminding voters ahead of the general. In 2024, he paid more than $300,000 in restitution to settle a long-running securities fraud case against him. His time in office was otherwise underscored by two cheating scandals and accusations of bribery.Talarico, a state representative, has blown Paxton out of the water in terms of in-state fundraising, and is a beacon of hope for Texas Democrats hoping to turn the longtime Republican stronghold purple.GeorgiaDemocratic Senator Jon Ossoff was once the top target for a GOP flip this election cycle after he just barely won the seat six years ago. But thanks in part to a fundraising haul from the 39-year-old, Ossoff isn’t just the favorite to win reelection — his national profile has risen so high that he’s been elevated to a dark horse 2028 presidential candidate.He’s up against Mike Collins, a MAGA-aligned House member known for his inflammatory social media presence. He once shot at an exploding voting machine to parrot Trump’s claims of a rigged presidential election in a 2022 campaign video.Republicans hoped Ossoff’s seat would be ripe for the taking. But Collins thus far has failed to drum up enough fundraising or enthusiasm to dig into Ossoff’s incumbent advantage.The Democrat is now the favorite in what was once seen as a coin flip race. A September poll from the Trafalgar Group has Ossoff ahead by nearly seven points.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads