Three up, three down: Jacob Lopez and Andrew Painter emerge as must-add pitchers for the Fantasy stretch run

There are a few words a smart Fantasy analyst is loath to use. "League-winner" feels like you're tempting fate, while we've all gotten burnt by the player who has "turned the corner" only to blow up in our faces. But Jacob Lopez sure looks like a league-winner right now, doesn't he? And as for Andrew Painter, well, he's turned the corner, no? These two pitchers have been linked in our discussions for the past couple of weeks, and both pitched well again Wednesday, so let's take a look at what they're doing right, because both look like the highest-priority, waiver-wire adds for the third straight week. Starting with Lopez, who is, in a lot of ways, just running a repeat of last season. After an underwhelming start to the season, he got hot in mid-June and ripped off a 12-start stretch where he put together a 2.30 ERA (2.88 xERA), with 10.8 K/9 and excellent all-around results. That run ended with a nine-run blowup and an elbow injury, but for about two months, Lopez was as good as just about anyone. His turnaround this time started a month later, but he's up to nine starts with a 2.51 ERA, 10.9 K/9, and the peripherals to mostly back it up.How does this soft-tossing lefty keep putting together runs like this? Well, Wednesday's start is a good example. Despite averaging less than 90 mph on his four-seamer (Lopez's velocity was actually down nearly 1 mph or more across the board in this one), he generated 17 whiffs on 102 pitches, with a solid 88 mph average exit velocity allowed. He's got this cross-body delivery that comes from way off toward the first base side of the mound with elite extension and hitters just have a tough time picking him up, especially when paired with unusual movement profiles on every pitch in his arsenal. In short, there just aren't a lot of pitches that look like Lopez's, and that helps the whole arsenal play up. And when he's missing bats, he's especially dangerous. Lopez can have iffy command at times – something you'll see pretty regularly with other cross-body pitchers like Andrew Abbott and George Klassen – which combines with his below-average velocity to give him a very slim margin for error. But even when things aren't going well, he still tends to generate a lot of weak contact in the air, in the form of both harmless pop-ups and medium-shallow fly balls that are easy outs. When he's getting that strikeout rate up into the 30% range, that combination is devastating. It could all go sideways for Lopez, but he's so locked in right now that I think you have to just keep riding him and hope he stays healthy this time around. If he does, well … I'm not going to use those words, but you know what I'm thinking. As for Painter, things seem much more straightforward. He was, at one point, the best pitching prospect in the world, and despite missing two seasons with elbow troubles, he's still just 23. Yeah, it was a bumpy road, but he was always going to figure it out, right? Well, now that it looks like he has, it's easier to say that. But Painter was a disaster in the minors last season and was a disaster for several months in his first MLB season, and it was fair to wonder if he could ever get back to that level again. Especially when his biggest problem was such an obvious one: Despite good velocity, his fastball was no good. It didn't have the life or the run you're typically looking for from a dominant four-seamer, and it was actually one of the very worst pitches in baseball. And then he just kind of fixed it. It isn't a dominant pitch, but he's added an inch or two of rise to the pitch, and that's helping it miss barrels and occasionally even miss bats, the two best things a pitcher can do. Earlier in the season, his only hope of success was to do everything he could to avoid the fastball, but he threw it 41% of the time Wednesday, generated a bunch of weak contact, and even got three of his 13 swinging strikes with it against the Diamondbacks. And that might just be enough. The new changeup remains excellent (six whiffs) and his sweeper looked pretty solid, and all of a sudden, Painter is starting to look like the guy he was supposed to be. He struck out six over seven shutout, two-hit innings and now has a 3.14 ERA with 32 strikeouts to 10 walks in 34.1 innings since the start of August. And the underlying metrics back it up: Before he was sent to Triple-A in mid-June, Painter's Stuff+ rating overall was 101, while his four-seamer was just 91; in six starts before Wednesday's, he was up to a 107 overall Stuff+ rating, with the fastball sitting at 103. That doesn't mean these improvements will stick. Progress isn't linear, and guys will often appear to turn the corner only to wind up back in a cul-de-sac of frustration and failure. But Painter was one of the best pitching prospects of the past decade, so when he starts to show signs like this, it's time to buy in. With mild skepticism, perhaps, but not enough to let Painter sit out on the waiver wire.So, we won't use those specific words for those two. We'll just use these: They are must-add pitchers in any leagues where they are still available, and I would drop the likes of Will Warren, Joey Cantillo, Bryce Elder, Peter Lambert, or Chase Burns for them – all of whom are more rostered right now. Pre-game Lineup CardHere's what you might have missed from CBSSports.com's MLB coverage in recent days: Prospects report. Meet the September call-ups to watch. Contender spotlight. Mike Axisa takes a look at the most important players for every contender in September.MLB Trends. Has Cal Raleigh finally figured it out? Skenes' struggles. I wanted to highlight this post from Mikey Ajeto over at BaseballProspectus.com, which looks into Paul Skenes' second-half struggles and identifies a few mechanical issues that could help explain them. The problem? It's not clear there's an easy answer to fixing this. Hitting the WireThe top waiver-wire targets from Wednesday's action: Ty France, 1B, Padres (50%) – Use whatever split you want to use. Since the All-Star break, France is hitting .323 with nine homers and a .942 OPS. That's an awesome stretch, but it's just a hot streak, right? Well, he's now up to a .292 average with 20 homers and an .872 OPS for the season, so I don't think that's the case. He's just been awesome for a long time now, and most notably, he has the underlying skills to back up the breakout, with his average exit velocity leaping to a career-high 91.9 mph. He homered yet again Wednesday, and while it's tough to find room in your lineup at first base, injuries to the likes of Nick Kurtz and Willson Contreras plus ongoing slumps from Vladimir Guerrero mean many of you should have a need. Hector Rodriguez, OF, Reds (18%) – It took a little while for Rodriguez to get his legs under him, but he's starting to show signs of figuring it out. He homered Wednesday and now has five over his past 11 games, a stretch that has also seen Rodriguez move up to the leadoff spot against righties. The only downside to adding him: The Reds have four lefties on the projected schedule for next week, with all six games scheduled to come on the road. That's not enough to make me completely avoid him, but it could slow his breakout. Henry Bolte, OF, Athletics (39%) – The A's have six games at home next week, which makes it the perfect time to buy into the red-hot Bolte. He had another big game Wednesday, going 3 for 4 with a couple of homers and a steal, and he's now hitting .320 with five homers and three steals over the past 30 games. He's still hitting way too many ground balls, with his average launch angle during this hot streak still in the negative range, but he's hitting the ball hard and he's a good athlete, and he's making it all work for him right now. With a full week in the bandbox in Sacramento, he should keep rolling, even with some tough pitcher matchups on the way. Hayden Wesneski, SP, Astros (55%) – I don't have a ton of faith in Wesneski as a long-term option, but hey, we aren't in "long-term" territory anymore. He doesn't have to be good for six months; he just has to keep rolling for three more weeks. Wesneski tossed seven shutout innings Wednesday against the White Sox, and he's now down to a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in seven starts on the season. He isn't missing many bats, something that should catch up to him at some point, but for now, he's looking like a strong two-start streamer against the Phillies and Rays next week. Leo Bernal, C, Cardinals (3%) – Catcher remains a position of strength for the Cardinals (including at the minor-league level), but Bernal has now started each of the first two games since his promotion from Triple-A. And he homered off Yoshinobu Yamamoto Wednesday for his first ever at the MLB level. Before his promotion, Bernal was hitting .278/.363/.468 with 16 homers and nine steals in 101 games as a 22-year-old at Triple-A, solid numbers that could make him a viable No. 2 catcher if the playing time is there. And it looks like it might be. Three Up, Three DownThree big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction. Three UpSigns of life from Vladimir Guerrero?At this point, it's just about trying to salvage as much value as he can for 2027, because there's nothing Guerrero can do to save his 2026. Even after he went 3 for 4 with a homer and five RBI Wednesday, Guerrero is tied for the ninth-lowest isolated slugging percentage in baseball, matching slap hitter Nico Hoerner. This is a guy with a 48-homer season under his belt and a 68th percentile average exit velocity on the season, but he just hasn't been able to elevate the ball with authority consistently all season long. A big September wouldn't make your decision to take him in the second round any easier to swallow, but it could at least help Guerrero rebuild some of his value for 2027. Reid Detmers keeps rollingHe's finally (mostly) having the season we've been hoping for. There have still been bouts of inconsistency, but Detmers has a 3.44 ERA after his first start of September, by far the best season of his career. He was downright dominant Wednesday, allowing just one earned run in seven innings while striking out eight against the Yankees. He has five quality starts in a row with a 0.82 ERA in that span, with both his groundball rate and walk rate looking much improved lately. Of course, he also had a six-start stretch with a 4.90 ERA right before this stretch, so you can never feel too comfortable. But Detmers is on track for a career-best season and has likely played his way into top-36 SP consideration for 2027. Ronald Acuna is heating up Acuna hasn't been quite as hopeless as Guerrero, but this season has definitely been a big disappointment, between multiple IL stints and a pretty lengthy slump. He went 3 for 5 with a homer and an RBI Wednesday and has 10 hits in his past six games, so maybe he's starting to turn things around? I noted a few weeks ago that Acuna is at least getting back to running, with four steals in July, something I thought might be gone from his skill set after all the leg injuries. I don't think we'll ever see a 40-steal season from Acuna again, but the raw power and bat speed are still here, so if he's even a 20-steal guy, that still gives him big five-category potential, even if the path to getting back to a top-five player looks murkier than ever. Three DownShohei Ohtani just doesn't look healthyIt was pretty rough to watch Ohtani swing the bat last night. The Dodgers have mostly maintained that the biceps and knee issues are only affecting him while trying to pitch, but it's hard to believe that when you watch some of the awkward swings Ohtani was taking Wednesday. And manager Dave Roberts acknowledged that Ohtani was in some physical discomfort amid his four-strikeout night, to the point that Ohtani could get some additional time off. He's already been pulled off his throwing program as he continues to deal with discomfort, but it's fair to wonder how much this is impacting his swing, too – Ohtani's expected wOBA over his past 50 plate appearances is down to .329, an above-average mark, but still well shy of his .403 mark for the season. Ohtani hasn't homered in 12 games and while it's basically impossible to ever justify benching him when he's in the lineup, he doesn't look like the same guy right now. Jacob Misiorowski is losing his footingMisiorowski isn't having a great time on the road lately. He struggled with his velocity on a night when he dealt with a muddy mound that affected his delivery in his most recent start at Citi Field, and he had similar issues in a sloppy night at Wrigley Field Wednesday. His velocity was actually okay in this one, but he wasn't himself, allowing five runs in four innings to end his streak of starts with three or fewer earned runs at 25 in a row. He matched a season-high four walks in this one, and after the start admitted that he and the team are looking into ways to overcome this issue, including throwing his bullpen sessions on road mounds when the team is traveling. It figures the only thing that can derail Misiorowski's dominance is an act of god, but it came at an awfully tough time for those of you in playoff matchups. I don't think there's anything to be too concerned about here long-term, but it was still tough to see. It's hard to trust Casey MizeEven amid multiple recurring groin injuries, Mize has spent much of the season pitching incredibly well. But it looks like he is running out of steam, as he struggled yet again Wednesday, allowing four runs in four innings to the Reds. It's the third time in six starts since joining the Padres that Mize has allowed at least four runs, and he now has a 6.66 ERA with his new team. And it isn't just the runs that are becoming an issue, as he has just 15 strikeouts in those six starts. It's worth noting that Mize sprained his ankle a few starts ago and likely isn't 100% healthy at this point, but that hardly makes me feel better about being able to trust him next time around. And this all comes at an especially bad time, because Mize is matched up for a two-start week against the Nationals and Giants next week, but I just can't trust him. Extra InningsOf course Trevor Rogers was dominant at Coors FieldVery little about Trevor Rogers' past two seasons has made much sense, which is why it makes perfect sense that he was dominant Wednesday against the Rockies. In the toughest pitching environment in baseball, of course he went out and recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts in 6.2 two-run innings. And he did that coming off a six-run outing against the Cardinals the last time out that ballooned his ERA in August to 4.82. There appears to be neither rhyme nor reason to Rogers' success or failures at this point, and I guess I lean toward keeping him in your lineup and hoping for the best in a two-start week against very beatable matchups in the Guardians and Blue Jays next week. But I won't have much confidence in the outcome either way.