This election forecast tool updates every 10 minutes. Here’s what it’s predicting about Democrats’ chances

With control of the U.S. Senate on the line, a new tool is tracking the battle in near real time. Throughout the day, the platform pulls data from the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, and then uses statistical models to simulate a million versions of the midterm elections, with outcomes for each of the 35 races in play. “Every 10 minutes, I’m running a gigantic simulation,” says Thomas Miller, the faculty director of the master’s in data science program at Northwestern Unive...