‘There’s no trust:’ Inside Burnham’s migration nightmare

There is an old military maxim, attributed to Napoleon, that you shouldn’t interrupt your opponent while they are making a mistake. Which may perhaps explain Andy Burnham’s silence – so far – on the latest scandal to descend on Nigel Farage after two of his close aides were forced to quit amid allegations of breaching political donation rules in a Channel 4 News sting. But it also speaks to a wider shift in the new Prime Minister’s strategy on tackling Reform – albeit a move some fear could be undone by Labour infighting over immigration. Shorts Considering Reform’s challenge to Labour in key “Red Wall” northern and Midlands seats and in the polls (despite Farage’s party being overtaken thanks to the “Burnham bounce“), the Prime Minister might have been expected to make hay over the latest scandal – even in view of the convention not to score points during party conferences. Instead, in contrast to Sir Keir Starmer’s “moralising” attacks, which Burnham thinks alienates voters you hope to win over, the PM is instead adopting a positive strategy of setting out plans to help people, insiders say. The strategy appears to be working so far, but some insiders warn that progress on Channel small boat crossings and immigration is essential if Reform is to be kept in check in the long term. However, they fear splits among the party’s MPs over immigration risk undermining Burnham’s progress, as a large group of rebels push for a watering-down of the plan to toughen up settlement rights for foreign workers just as the Government stands to gain from falling Channel crossings. Labour divided over immigration A source close to No 10 warned that Burnham and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood would need to show more “demonstrable” progress in cutting small boat numbers by the time of the next election. Channel crossings fell to their lowest level since 2019 over the summer, largely as measures put in place by Starmer begin to bear fruit. This has given Burnham an opportunity to demonstrate progress, particularly to Reform voters or those considering a vote for that party – the “Reform-curious”. But Labour MPs are warning that a major backbench revolt over Mahmood’s proposed toughening up of indefinite leave to remain (ILR) settlement rights risks undermining this. The policy would double the amount of time it would take for most legal migrants to claim permanent residence from five to 10 years. This will apply to those already here – a particular cause of concern. There is particular concern from MPs in the “Red Wall” (Burnham’s own seat of Makerfield is in that zone) who are vulnerable to Farage’s party. Mahmood and Burnham are weighing up whether to offer rebels a concession when finalising the policy this autumn, with around 100 MPs thought to be pushing for a watering-down. But the Prime Minister is being urged by others in his party to hold his nerve and push through the changes. One MP welcomed Burnham’s new approach to taking on Reform: “He’s ditched the moralising tone that Keir Starmer often adopted, which is a very good thing,” they said. But they warned: “Falling boat crossings are encouraging but that’s all. It won’t be neutralised as an issue until they are much lower. “Burnham can reach the Reform-curious Labour voters in a way Starmer couldn’t. But the proof will be in holding his nerve on things like ILR.” ‘Small boat numbers have to fall to zero’ Another headache for Burnham is that while the message that small boat numbers are out of control has cut through with voters, it is harder to make them hear the numbers are falling. This is leading some MPs to say that there needs to be “stronger measures” to stop small boats entirely. One MP said: “The issue with small boats is that people don’t believe it [the falling numbers].” Another added: “The Reform/GB News mantra message that we are being invaded by a young and fighting-fit male army has cut through. We need the language to counter this. “Small boat numbers have to reduce to zero before we are taken seriously again. I believe this can be achieved but it will take stronger measures. Rebelling on ILR will reinforce the belief that we are not in control of our borders” Migrants in a dinghy in the Channel head towards the south coast of England (Photo: Glyn Kirk/AFP) The Labour rebellion on ILR appears to be growing, with 43 MPs from across the party now openly signing up to an Early Day Motion from MP Neil Duncan-Jordan calling for all skilled workers currently in the UK to be exempt from the changes. A Labour source on this side of the debate said Burnham should heed the revolt because he is more likely to win votes from those who have drifted to the Greens or Liberal Democrats than Reform supporters. “The evidence shows Labour is losing more votes to the centre and left than to the far right,” the source said. “Chasing Reform’s voters while alienating our own base is a losing strategy. Starmer learned that lesson the hard way. Burnham has the opportunity to learn it the easy way by dumping this plan. “I also reject the simplistic binary here. The public believe in fairness. You might want immigration to come down, but you would not dream of punishing the care worker looking after your parents, or the other workers keeping the country moving.” Shift away from Starmer The seeds of Burnham’s new approach to Reform were planted a year ago at Labour’s annual conference, when Starmer dramatically escalated his attack, describing Reform and its policies as “racist” and “immoral” – a deliberate choice of language designed to draw a much sharper moral dividing line between the two parties. But not everyone in Labour was convinced that this was the right way. Among them was the now Prime Minister. Those close to the then Greater Manchester mayor argued that Starmer risked falling into a trap set by Farage. The comparison was drawn with Hillary Clinton’s description of some Donald Trump supporters in 2016 as a “basket of deplorables”: an attack which Trump was able to turn into a broader argument that the political establishment held his supporters in contempt. Burnham’s concern was that Labour could make the same mistake – alienating rather than persuading voters who were considering Reform, and ultimately hardening support for Farage rather than weakening it. Migrant arrivals in the UK after crossing the English Channel (Image: PA) That’s why many in the Labour Party now expect him to take a more conciliatory approach to his adversaries in order to stop them from becoming such a radicalising force. That was in evidence in his first Prime Minister’s Questions where he sought to take the heat out of the debate and find common ground where possible. A No 10 source confirmed Burnham was deliberately attacking Reform less. “The PM gets that people want to hear what your plan is. They don’t want to just hear you slagging off the other side. So that’s why he overwhelmingly spends his time explaining his diagnosis and how he’s going to fix things,” they said. ‘There’s a real sense of disbelief’ The source close to No 10, meanwhile, said a more nuanced strategy was being pursued, by trying to win back progressive voters who had defected to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, while also trying to gain the support of “economically insecure” Reform-inclined voters with cost of living support. The source said there was a feeling within Burnham’s No 10 that Starmer had alienated progressive voters with his rhetoric on immigration while failing to impress Reform-minded voters. Louis O’Geran of think-tank More in Common said that Labour was in a marginally better position on immigration because of recent figures showing a reduction in Channel crossings. “If the issue is seen to be slowly getting under control, that’s going to be something that Reform are going to have to really shout to talk over,” he added. However, O’Geran said there was significant cynicism among right-wing voters about figures showing a decline in Channel crossings. A total of 6,949 people crossed in the three months of June, July and August – the lowest number since 2019. “There’s a real sense of disbelief,” he said. “A lot of people just simply don’t trust official statistics. So for Reform’s base, I don’t think that it matters as much.”