The WSL so far: goal-shy Arsenal, underrated Brighton and more data pointers

The Women’s Super League table is taking shape for 2026-27. The defending champions, Manchester City, have five wins from five games but more intriguing stories lie elsewhere. Why are Arsenal struggling, who is performing better than results suggest, and in which way are two promoted teams smashing expectations? Here are three key data points.Arsenal have two major flawsOpta made Arsenal third favourites to win the WSL before a ball was kicked. Their win at Brighton combined with Chelsea’s draw against Aston Villa in week one meant Renée Slegers’ side rose to narrow favourites. The four games since, from which Arsenal took two points, have torpedoed their title chances.Chart showing the chance of winning the 2026-27 Women’s Super League by matchweek for Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester CityOne reason for their slump is a continuation of a problem from last season. The stats section of our Arsenal pre-season preview highlighted draws in 2025-26 that they deserved to win based on expected goals. That trend has continued this season with positive xG margins of 2.2 and 1.2 in their home games against Crystal Palace (0-0) and Manchester United (1-1) respectively.Had Smilla Holmberg not scored with her only shot of the campaign in the 95th minute against United, the situation would be even worse. While players inevitably have a small sample of shots at this point, Arsenal’s finishing woes are a collective problem. Only Lisa Baum and Alessia Russo have also scored, with the latter 1.28 goals below her expected goal tally. Scoring three goals in the international break may help Russo’s confidence.A physical deficiency may also be contributing to Arsenal’s struggles. Gradient Sports award players an athleticism score, a single metric which incorporates stamina, explosiveness and game context. There are 125 WSL players with a score who have played at least 270 minutes this season. Steph Catley is Arsenal’s highest-ranked player, at 31st, and their only representative above 59th. Every other club has at least two players in the top 50, with Chelsea having five. West Ham possessing seven shows this is not a decisive factor in success but Arsenal fans may wonder whether their side need to increase the physical intensity.Brighton are ones to watchBrighton were predicted by Opta to finish seventh. As they are ninth, that forecast looks reasonable enough. Yet the underlying data suggests they deserve to be third, 0.1 expected points behind City. The Seagulls endured a case of wastefulness more extreme than anything Arsenal have offered up when they drew 1-1 with Villa. Despite an expected goal count of 3.17 to 0.03 in Brighton’s favour, Lynn Wilms’s 89th-minute goal robbed them of a victory.Chart showing points and expected points for the 2026-27 Women’s Super LeagueBrighton also drew at Birmingham when leading the expected goals by 1.5 and missed four Opta-defined big chances in their 2-0 defeat at London City Lionesses. If they can make their dominance count, Brighton look capable of at least matching the fifth-place finish they secured in 2024-25.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionProductive pressing tends to belong to better teams. Opta’s high turnover metric records when a team win the ball to begin a new sequence of open-play possession within 40m of the opposition goal. If you sort the 2025-26 WSL by the number of high turnovers that led to shots, the five clubs with the fewest were those that finished in the bottom five. The standings were slightly more jumbled if you looked at the percentage of high turnovers that generated shots, to assess effectiveness and efficiency, but the top four teams for this finished in the WSL top five. Promoted London City had the fourth-least productive press by this measure.Two of their successors are upending these correlations. Palace are third for shot-ending high turnovers, with 12, behind Chelsea (17) and Tottenham (15). The percentage of their possession regains in the final 40m that led to shots is the highest in the division (33.3%), with their fellow promoted side Birmingham (28.6%) next in line.Chart showing percentage of high turnovers leading to shots in the 2026-27 Women’s Super LeagueThe West Midlands club are tied with Tottenham for most goals from high turnovers, on three (while Palace have two). Birmingham’s goals were all scored by Océane Hurtré, helping propel her to joint-first in the golden boot race, with five goals.The 22-year-old French attacker won the ball for two of the three high-turnover goals, including one at Manchester City. Hurtré’s others came in the first and eighth minutes of matches against Palace and Brighton respectively, illustrating the benefit that pressing opponents early can bring.