The War is Coming Home to Russians

Four and a half years into Russia’s war in Ukraine, and despite wave after wave of Western sanctions packages, much has been made of the fact that the war has not had much impact on the bulk of Russians. Well unless you are a family member of some of the one million plus Russian dead and injured. But even there, casualties have been predominantly from Russia’s prior bloated prison population or communities on the periphery of the Federation – and disproportionately from Muslim populations in Southern Russia, or central Asian guest workers contracted to fight.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The death toll has been limited in the politically sensitive cities of Moscow and St Petersburg, which have always figured prominently in revolutions in Russia. Political change happens in Moscow and St Petersburg, so they have been largely insulated from this war to date – actually they may have even benefited from high wages in the war economy. But all that might be about to change. First, the meat grinder in Ukraine now seems to be creating more Russian casualties than Moscow can recruit through the contract route. Likely monthly deaths are now up and above 35,000. To still man the front lines means difficult decisions will need to be taken in Moscow. Mobilisation might become necessary, which means the citizens of Moscow and St Petersburg will finally see their sons, fathers and uncles heading to certain death. Other Topics of Interest Ukraine Strikes Russian Drone Development University, Wildberries Logistics Hub, Crimea in Overnight Raid The strikes come as Kyiv increasingly targets Russia’s rear infrastructure, including logistics networks, industrial facilities and military-related technology sites. Second, Ukrainian deep strike drone attacks are proving increasingly effective in hitting Russia’s military industrial complex, its energy sector and logistics and distribution channels. Around 40% of Russia’s oil refinery capacity has been hit, and this is now causing widespread fuel shortages, rationing and higher prices. Russians are having to queue up – memories there of Russia’s Soviet past that Putin so idealises. These attacks force shortages domestically but also force Russia to export more lower priced crude – and import more expensive refined products. It hence impacts negatively on the balance of payments meaning fewer rubles for the war effort. Added to that, Ukraine has now begun targeting key logistics chains, including the Wildberry company, which has seen two thirds of its distribution centres suffer catastrophic attacks. Someone described Wildberry as Russia’s Amazon. It is. So just imagine that Amazon in the UK or US is put out of service. Imagine the difficulties in buying those everyday products you have grown accustomed to getting in 24 hours. Likely it will also mean shortages and higher prices for consumers. But Wildberry, like Amazon in the West, is a key part of the supply chain for Russian business and industry. So imagine also the supply chain disruptions beyond the end consumer. Again, it will disrupt the Russian economy, causing shortages and higher prices. And the impact does not end there. Stock worth tens of billions of dollars has literally gone up in flames – losses virtually impossible to recover. All of that likely means bankruptcies and losses then to the banks – higher non-performing loans. It will mean a tightening of credit conditions, higher policy rates and lower growth. From bad to worse for Russia The Ukrainian attacks will cause growth in Russia to slow – a recession is likely, inflation will rise and Russians are likely to suffer shortages. And for Russians, things are only going to get worse – a lot worse – as Ukraine not only has the innovation advantage in this war, but also now has unlimited European finance behind it and deepening integration into Europe’s now growing/fast track military industrial complex. This will give Ukraine scale. Russia’s $2 trillion (and declining) economy, where finance is in short supply just cannot compete with Ukraine, backstopped by Europe’s $25 trillion economy even with Donald Trump’s US, literally missing in action. And why has Europe now got Ukraine’s back? Because Europe realizes that Russia is the greatest existential threat to its survival, the US cannot be trusted to offer its support, and Ukraine’s drones and defense tech are the key to being able to stop Russia. It is no longer relevant for Ukraine whether it joins NATO. NATO is not key to Ukraine’s defense, but Ukraine is now key to Europe’s defense. Ukraine has the leverage here. Hence, European countries are now queuing up to sign defense tech deals with Ukraine, to leverage up and lock in Ukrainian expertise for their own future defense. And they know that Russia is coming for them, unless Ukraine is given the tools – cash and scale – to defeat Russia. And it will. The writing is on the wall for Russia. The recent imposition of social media bans in Russia means the authorities know a social and political exclusion is looming on the back of the looming defeat in war and a worsening economic situation. Reprinted with permission from the author. Read the original here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.