The WA suburbs where households are most at risk of defaulting on their mortgages

November 5, 2026 — 5:00amAlmost 6000 households across 10 West Australian suburbs are at risk of falling behind on their mortgage repayments in the next year, new data shows.Digital Finance Analytics’ Q3 2026 Mortgage Default Risk Report follows the fifth interest rate hike of the year, from 4.6 per cent to 4.85 per cent – the highest in 18 years.That announcement will add about $100 a month to repayments on a 30-year $600,000 mortgage.Mortgage default risk – the risk of a missed payment that flags the loan with the lender as out of order – has risen 26.4 per cent over the past year in WA according to the data, and by 7.3 per cent for the quarter.It’s the second-highest increase nationally behind South Australia.Canning Vale recorded a 31 per cent risk increase in just three months – the sharpest quarterly increase – from 343 to 448 households at risk of falling behind on repayments in the next 12 months.Armadale was a close second with 805 households now at risk.Mandurah recorded 966 at-risk households, the largest count in WA and the second-largest nationally, but the postcode recorded no reading in June, meaning its quarterly change could not be calculated.The data assumes that nothing changes in the next 12 months, including household income and interest rates.Mansour Soltani, the head of research at finance and property research platform OurTop10, said there was a direct correlation between the company’s Mortgage Stress Report for the quarter and mortgage default risk.“We count mortgage stress a little bit different to counterparts in the industry, where the traditional has been if 30 per cent of your household income is going to your mortgage, you’re in mortgage stress,” he said.“If more of your money is going out than you’re actually earning, and you’re then relying on things such as credit cards for groceries, that’s mortgage stress.“If I have a look at Canning Vale, six out of 10 households are in mortgage stress, so that’s going to have a direct correlation to why Canning Vale is high on the default report.”Soltani said the 10 suburbs were also listed in the Mortgage Stress Report as the areas where households were in the “most dire positions”.He said one of two things could happen following the latest interest rate hike.“We’re going to see an increase in mortgage stress, which is going to create an increase in either defaults or properties hitting the market, which are going to have a negative effect on pricing because there’s going to be more stock available,” Soltani said.“This might be fortunate for buyers, but it is unfortunate for sellers. The thing is that when the rate increases, it takes a while for it to hit the system.“It’s going to be a while before we see positive news out of this. I think we’re we’re going to be continually expecting these numbers to get worse, at least over the next two to three quarters.”Property listingsFrom our partners