The very real scenario where the GOP expands its Senate majority

The New York Times ran a splashy story this week with its experts predicting the outcome of the midterm elections. Overall, “It’s looking bullish for Democrats,” said the alleged paper of record, with not one of these experts giving the GOP an outright majority in the upper chamber.It’s increasingly difficult to trust pollsters these days given their track record. Nate Silver, for example, is one of these five experts the New York Times offers up in the piece. He’s the same guy who gave Hillary Clinton about a 75% chance of winning the 2016 presidential race. He also predicted Kamala Harris would top Donald Trump both in the popular vote and Electoral College in 2024.Ten years ago, the New York Times forecast on the morning of the presidential election gave Clinton an 85% chance of winning, including Trump having just a 6% chance of winning Michigan, an 11% chance in Pennsylvania, and a 33% in Florida (Trump would go on to win all three). In 2024, it provided ample space to the overhyped Allan Lichtman and James Carville in its op-ed pages, with both men guaranteeing victory for Harris. And the New York Times’s editorial board did what it has always done every four years since 1956: endorse the Democrat candidate.In this week’s prediction piece, the New York Times’s experts have Democrats easily winning back the House, while two analysts see a 50-50 Senate and three see an outright majority of up to 52 seats.But with the unpopularity of the Democrat Party right now that is experiencing a civil war between its establishment and socialist wings and the fact that Democrats will need to win in states they haven’t won in years, these predictions seem more based in hope than logic. States that Trump won in 2024 with Senate seats up for grabs include Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska. Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024, the highest margin of victory in 20 years. Are we really saying that James Talarico, who believes six genders exist, that the church is actually pro-choice, and God is nonbinary, can erase a two-touchdown deficit and win? Despite Ken Paxton’s flaws, the answer is no.Texas stays red. In Michigan, things are going south for Dr. Abdul el Sayed in a hurry, all thanks to the candidate’s decision to put an antisemetic, anti-American maniac in Hasan Piker at the center of the campaign rallies going into the primary. “All you in the press! These folks are talking about healthcare! Stop asking me about a streamer in California!” he railed at a recent campaign event. How bad is it to be associated with Piker, who has declared that America deserved 9/11, Jews are “inbreds,” and that he hates America and hates police officers? Very bad. On Monday, here’s another campaign ad Piker has provided for el Sayed’s opponent, Republican Mike Rogers. “The absolute worst country on the face of the planet, straight up, bar none,” Piker said of the United States. “A capitalist s***hole … I despise this nation. I despise this country with my entire f***ing heart.” But el Sayed continues to refuse to disavow Piker. He also has made radical statements of his own, including calling for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and defunding the police. Michigan flips red to Rogers, who nearly beat a capable Elissa Slotkin two years ago. In Maine, the Democratic Party has gone from almost nominating a guy with a Nazi tattoo credibly accused of sexual misconduct in Graham Platner to nominating a guy who married his second cousin and had children with said second cousin. That weird nugget aside, Republican Sen. Susan Collins always outperforms polls. Take her last campaign in 2020, when not one major poll in the final weeks heading into Election Day showed Collins leading. Not one. She ended up winning by nearly 9 points. Same thing happens here. Maine stays red.Iowa is another state Trump captured by double digits in 2024 despite the insane poll from the Des Moines Register’s Ann Selzer showing Harris up three days before the election. With the election seven weeks away, Democrat Josh Turek only trails Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson by 0.5% in the RealClearPolitics average for a Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, who won by an average of about 8 points in two elections. Iowa stays red. Alaska: See Texas and Iowa above. Another state Trump won by more than 13 points in 2024. No Democrat has won there in a Senate race in nearly 20 years. The RealClearPolitics average has Democrat Mary Peltola up by 2 points over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who won six years ago by 13 points. It ain’t happening given the voter makeup of the state. Overall, only 12% of Alaskan voters are registered Democrats. Alaska stays red. It was said in 2004 that as Ohio went, so went the presidency, President George W. Bush scratched out a win in the Buckeye State over John Kerry to clinch his reelection. But if things went the other way in Ohio, Kerry would have become the nation’s 44th president. Times have drastically changed, however. Much like Florida, Ohio is no longer a toss-up. In 2016, Trump won there by 8 points over Clinton. In 2020, Trump again won by 8 points over Joe Biden. In 2024, Trump expanded his margin to 11 points over Harris. The state also reelected Republican Gov. Mike DeWine in 2022 by a whopping 25 points.Republican Sen. Jon Husted currently trails former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by 3.3% in the RealClearPolitics average. Again, it’s hard to see how a Trump double-digit win less than two years ago, and a DeWine 25-point win four years ago, suddenly gets erased by Brown, who lost to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024 after serving in the Senate for 18 years.Ohio stays red.Largely overlooked by national media, New Hampshire and Minnesota are impossibly tight. In New Hampshire, former Republican Sen. John Sununu has been gaining in the polls, even overtaking Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in University of New Hampshire’s latest survey. Overall, the RealClearPolitics average is a dead heat with Pappas leading within the margin of error. But the Sununu brand has always performed exceptionally well in the Granite State going back decades, and there’s no reason to doubt that happening again.The state hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 2010, but it has a real opportunity to now. As for Minnesota, it’s been 54 years since the state voted Republican in a presidential race. But the margin has been noticeably shrinking. Trump lost by just 4 points in 2024 despite Gov. Tim Walz being on the Democratic ticket. Fraud, waste, and abuse is a top issue, with Democrats in the state, including Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who takes on former NBC Sports reporter Michelle Tafoya, a Republican. Tafoya, who has never pursued public office before and therefore can accurately brand herself as an outsider taking on a corrupt system, has been relentless in making fraud, waste, and abuse a central theme to this race. Flanagan is seen as a heavy favorite in the betting markets. But the polls say otherwise, with Tafoya now within the margin of error in the RealClearPolitics average and almost 10% of voters still undecided. If the GOP can even gain a split in New Hampshire and Minnesota, we could be looking at a 54-46 GOP majority in the Senate even if the GOP can’t flip Georgia or hold in North Carolina. And even if three of these races outlined above go for Democrats, Republicans would still own the majority, 51-49.The House is a different story, with just four seats needed to be flipped. Democrats can have just an OK night and still make Hakeem Jefferies the next House speaker and thereby begin Trump impeachment hearings, which will ultimately result in nothing.We saw this scenario in 2018 during Trump’s first term. Republicans lost the House, but gained in the Senate.THE GOP’S TENT IS TOO BIG IF BO FRENCH IS UNDER ITGridlock will rule, but given Trump’s approval is sitting at 40% in the RealClearPolitics average, a split would be considered a moral victory the party would gladly take if offered today.Either way, many of the “experts” believe a clean sweep is coming. But given their shoddy track record and blatant bias, such predictions should be treated thusly: as a joke.