The unlucky 13: States bordering Canada are particularly hard-hit by trade war

MONTREAL — The punditry industrial complex has taken many hard hits over the past 11 years with predictions of President Donald Trump’s political demise.Since the self-promoting businessman and reality TV star descended the Trump Tower golden escalator in June 2015, many have said he would soon be finished. First, it was “I like people that weren’t captured,” a jab at the late Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, famously a Vietnam prisoner of war.Then came Trump’s insult-comic routine throughout the 2016 Republican primaries, when he captured the nomination against a slew of veteran GOP officeholders. In the general election, Trump survived the Access Hollywood tape. And once he became president the first time — and beyond — a pair of impeachments didn’t dent his eventual White House return. The list of Trump’s seemingly self-inflicted political wounds that weren’t is so long that even the most die-hard political junkie would come up short in naming all the episodes that caused frantic media tut-tutting but failed to boot him from public life.From top right to bottom left: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID); Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME); Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson; Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT); Republican Senate nominee John E. Sununu; Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY); Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy; Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton; Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA); Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT); Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA). (AP Photos) Yet there’s one series of recent Trump actions that could plausibly do serious political damage as he enters the final two years of his two nonconsecutive presidential terms. Widespread tariffs with Canada, and Trump’s belligerent attitude toward America’s northern neighbor that has accompanied them, are causing economic pain across the United States, particularly in 13 states along the U.S.-Canada border, where both nations’ economies have long been deeply intertwined.The pair is experiencing a sharp escalation in trade and political tensions following the collapse of bilateral negotiations and the imposition of heavy retaliatory tariffs. The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods following the breakdown of trade talks in August 2026. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on roughly 700 American products — including steel, aluminum, dairy, and appliances — which took effect on Sept. 8, 2026.Talks have completely broken down, with officials exchanging public criticisms instead of sitting down at the negotiating table. Carney publicly urged U.S. Cabinet officials to stop “throwing shade” and treating the dispute like a meme. That’s a reference to a Trump executive order changing the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America.”U.S. officials wager that, with a population nearly 10 times that of Canada and economic might as the world’s superpower, they have the upper hand. And undoubtedly, U.S.-imposed tariffs are starting to pinch in Canada.During a warm, late-August long weekend in Montreal, Canada’s second-largest city, grocery market chatter in the city’s bustling downtown sector revealed deep concern about sharp price rises. Quebec, with its unique blend of French and North American culture, faces the hardest economic hit of any Canadian province from the latest round of U.S. tariffs. Quebec is projected to lose close to 2 billion Canadian dollars in annual output by 2028 (about $1.44 billion), according to Oxford Economics, a global economic forecasting firm.Despite the current economic hits, Canadians are largely sticking with Carney, seeing the spat as a test of the nation’s sovereignty. South of the 5,525-mile border — the world’s longest international demarcation — voters in the Nov. 3 midterm elections are not likely to be as forgiving toward Trump.Unlike previous scandals, this isn’t about distant and hard-to-quantify notions of “democracy,” “self-dealing,” or “collusion” with foreign intelligence agencies. It’s a matter of being able to pay for food, housing, and other basic needs. All made more difficult by the Trump tariff regime, as even many of his Republican defenders concede.So it’s increasingly possible, even likely, that rising U.S. economic angst could mean an extremely tough go of it in the midterm elections for Republicans, who will stand in as political proxies since Trump isn’t on the ballot. If Democrats can win the House and/or the Senate, while picking up governorships (Republicans currently hold 26 of 50), Trump’s final two years in office could be a long defensive play rather than setting the agenda in traditional Trumpian fashion.Here’s how the Trump tariff program is playing out economically and politically in states that abut neighboring provinces.Alaska Economic effects: The Last Frontier not only has the longest part of the U.S.-Canada border, at 1,538 miles, along the province of British Columbia and the Yukon Territory. Alaska, with roughly 738,000 people, also has long had one of the most robust trade relationships with Canada, its neighbor to the west and northwest.Alaska exports roughly $596 million to $633 million in goods to Canada annually, per Canadian government statistics, while importing about $753 million in goods from Canada. Major Alaskan exports include minerals and ores ($435 million), fish and seafood ($77 million), and fuel oil ($62 million). All told, over 20,000 jobs in Alaska tie directly to trade and cross-border connections with Canada.Remote border towns such as Skagway, Alaska, rely heavily on Canada for road access, supplies, and regional tourism. More broadly, communities on both sides face similar remote wilderness conditions, climate impacts, and sparse populations.Midterm election campaigns: Alaska has one of the busiest political scenes in the 2026 midterm elections, arguably behind only Michigan, which has a much larger population.Democrats see beating Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) as a linchpin of their efforts to win a Senate majority. His top Democratic opponent is former Rep. Mary Peltola, a prized recruit for Team Blue. Alaska utilizes a top-four open primary system paired with ranked-choice voting for the general election. Also on the ballot is Republican Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. — a retired teacher and not the incumbent GOP senator — and another Republican candidate, drywall contractor Jerry Heikes.Alaska’s governor’s race is wide open, with Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy headed for the exits because of state term limits. Democrats have consolidated around former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. He’s likely to face three Republicans — ex-Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, Bernadette Wilson, a businesswoman and one-time radio show host, and another ballot position to be determined.In addition, Alaska voters are considering ballot initiatives addressing state voting systems and campaign finance regulations. On top of that, control of the Alaska State Legislature is also up for grabs. Though Alaska is traditionally a Republican state — it’s only backed a Democratic presidential nominee once, in 1964 — both legislative chambers are currently controlled by bipartisan majority coalitions rather than a single traditional party majority.Idaho Economic effects: Idaho shares a relatively short border with Canada, 45 miles, straddling British Columbia. But U.S.-Canada tensions over trade and other issues could have a profound effect on the Gem State’s economy.Canada is Idaho’s largest foreign trading partner and top export market, accounting for $1.8 billion in goods exports (39% of the state’s total) in 2025. Exports from Idaho include, as the state’s nickname alludes to, precious metals and jewelry, along with ores, slag, ash, fertilizers, and live animals such as cattle. Top Canadian imports to Idaho are softwood lumber, animal feed, and industrial residues.Midterm election campaigns: Trump’s free-fall approval ratings are likely to have a limited effect in Idaho, one of the most Republican states. Still, the likely margin of GOP victory in some races could point to broader, national political trends.Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), 83, is running for reelection to the seat he first won in 2008. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman’s age could be a political Achilles heel, so to speak, in an election cycle that’s seen several senior-aged, longtime incumbents in both parties ousted in primaries by younger challengers.Risch’s main opponent is an independent, former state Rep. Todd Achilles. The one-time Army officer, in his late 50s, was a state representative for about a year and a half in 2024-25, elected as a Democrat before becoming an independent.Gov. Brad Little (R-ID) is seeking a third term for the office he was first elected to in 2018. The opposition field against him is split between the Democratic nominee, attorney Terri Pickens, and independent John Stegner, a former Idaho Supreme Court justice.And Idaho voters will weigh in on their state’s abortion laws. A ballot measure, Proposition 1, could, if passed, overturn one of the strictest abortion bans in the country.The ballot measure would enact a new law establishing a state right to “reproductive freedom,” which it defines as allowing residents to make their own decisions in areas including fertility treatment, contraception, and abortion. It would not amend the state’s constitution, meaning the state’s Republican-controlled legislature could still overturn it. Currently, Idaho bans abortion in nearly all circumstances, with a narrow exception if staying pregnant threatens someone’s life. Maine Economic effects: The U.S.-Canada border stretches 611 miles across the top of Maine and the Canadian provinces of Quebec and New Brunswick. Canada is Maine’s largest international trade partner, with total two-way trade exceeding $6 billion annually.Maine exports between $1.3 billion and $1.8 billion in goods to Canada every year. This represents about 41% of all state goods exports, per the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Many Maine products — such as lumber, potatoes, blueberries, and seafood — cross the border for processing before returning or heading to global markets.Maine imports billions of dollars in goods from Canada, including roughly $2 billion in fuel and electricity, plus raw materials and machinery used by local manufacturers.Residents in northern areas of Maine, such as the St. John River Valley, share a long-standing Acadian heritage and language ties with neighboring francophone regions in Canada. Many Mainers have family roots that extend into New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.Midterm election campaigns: Maine has been a focal point of political coverage for much of 2026. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is a top Senate target for Democrats. It’s hard to envisage a scenario in which they pick up the four seats necessary for a Senate majority without beating Collins.She’s proven a wily competitor, turning back a string of highly touted and well-funded Democratic candidates every six years, and Democrats in 2026 have been anything but unified. The establishment party choice, Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME), age 78, effectively dropped out of the Democratic nomination fight against an upstart progressive-populist first-time candidate, Graham Platner.But a string of negative news headlines, including an on-the-record rape allegation — which he denies — led to his departure from the race after winning the nomination.Platner’s Democratic replacement as Senate nominee, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, is now engaged in a high-stakes face-off against Collins leading up to Nov. 3. Jackson is an acolyte of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). It remains to be seen how much of an appetite there is for a far-left economic agenda in a state with a quirky political history.In Maine’s capital, Mills is leaving the governorship after eight years due to term limits. Democrats are in a strong position to hold the seat. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree, a former state House speaker, is far ahead in polls of Republican rival Bobby Charles, a one-time State Department official and GOP congressional aide.Republicans, though, have reason for optimism in a House race during an otherwise desultory year in congressional contests. Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is retiring after eight years representing Maine’s sprawling 2nd Congressional District, the largest east of the Mississippi River, from the U.S.-Canada border to points south and inland. The district backed Trump in 2024, even as Golden won reelection in the House. Now, former GOP Gov. Paul LePage is running for the open seat against state Auditor Matt Dunlap. Polls show LePage with a modest lead or the contest tied.Michigan Economic effects: Michigan, a major industrial state with a population of over 10 million, is among the Canadian border states facing the most economic pain from the Washington-Ottawa trade tensions. Michigan, with a 721-mile border — mostly stretching through four of the five Great Lakes and crucially connecting Detroit and Windsor, Ontario — sends roughly one-third of its total exports to Canada.Trump’s threatened tariffs of up to 50% on key Canadian exports — including aluminum, plywood, steel, and auto parts — with additional increases slated for Jan. 1, 2027, leave a serious level of economic uncertainty. According to the Detroit Regional Chamber, the binational Detroit-Windsor region and Michigan’s automotive supply chains are heavily exposed, leading to higher prices for consumers on raw materials, vehicles, and groceries.Midterm election campaigns: The Pine Tree State, long a target in presidential races, is at the center of the 2026 midterm election political action. There’s a rare convergence of an open Senate and governor’s races, and several competitive downballot contests, to varying degrees.Republicans have only won a single Senate race in Michigan over the past half-century-plus, in 1994. This could be the year that changes. Democrats nominated a far-left, Israel-hostile candidate, former Wayne County health director Abdul el Sayed. He races former House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, who, as the 2024 Republican Senate nominee, came up just short even as Trump won Michigan.Democrats stand a better chance in the governor’s race, open since Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) is retiring due to state term limits. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has built an active public presence as a Trump-era resistance figure. Rep. John James (R-MI) is trying to shrug off two losses as a Republican Senate nominee in Michigan to win statewide office finally.Three of Michigan’s 13 House races look to be competitive. Democrats are trying to win back the Macomb County seat James is vacating for his gubernatorial bid. Reps. Tom Barrett (R-MI) and Bill Huizenga (R-MI) also face Democratic challenges of varying political intensity.The state legislature is also a battleground. Republicans currently hold a 58-52 majority in the Michigan House of Representatives, while Democrats hold a 20-18 majority in the state Senate, meaning both parties have a shot at flipping legislative chambers where they’re now in the minority.Minnesota Economic effects: Minnesota doesn’t have major cities abutting the Canadian border like Detroit, Michigan, or Buffalo, New York. That doesn’t mean Trump’s trade policies wouldn’t be felt throughout the North Star State, with its 547-mile portion of the U.S.-Canada border straddling Manitoba and Ontario to the north.Canada is Minnesota’s top international trading partner, purchasing roughly $5.5 billion to $5.6 billion in goods annually (about 24% of the state’s total exports) and sending about $13 billion in imports back to the state, according to USTR.Minnesota farmers face severe pressure as agricultural products and machinery exports confront Canadian retaliatory duties. Since mineral fuels, oil, vehicles, machinery, and iron ore make up the core of cross-border trade, supply chains in Minnesota are vulnerable to cost spikes.Midterm election campaigns: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is highly favored to win the open-seat governor’s race. But with Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring from the Senate after November, the race to succeed her is too close for comfort among Democratic supporters.To be sure, Minnesota still has a progressive lean. It’s a key reason state Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won a contested Democratic Senate primary. She faces Michele Tafoya, a former NBC sportscaster-turned-podcast host and GOP activist. If Democrats can’t win this contest, a case of playing political defense, their hopes of a Senate majority are gone, and they could even suffer a net loss of seats.Montana Economic effects: Montana shares a 545-mile border with the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. Economic integration is just as deep.Montana exports about $1 billion in goods to Canada annually, representing nearly half of the state’s total international goods exports, according to the USTR, led by agriculture (42%), minerals and metals (26%), energy (17%), and equipment, machinery, and chemicals (8% combined).Montana imports roughly $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion in goods from Canada annually, heavily dominated by energy, per Canadian government statistics. Energy makes up 77% to 90% of imports, primarily crude petroleum and natural gas.Midterm election campaigns: There’s a rare open Senate seat from Montana, with Republican Sen. Steve Daines retiring after 12 years. He bowed out minutes before the March 5 filing deadline to clear the way for his chosen successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme.Trump’s sagging approval ratings might have given Democrats an opening in this red-leaning state, even if it was always going to be a stretch. But opposition to Alme is split between Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar.One of Montana’s two House seats is open, with the retirement of GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke. The western Montana 1st Congressional District nominee is retired Army officer and Afghanistan War veteran Aaron Flint, who later became a radio show host. Democrats, though, are putting up a fight with a populist nominee who has attracted considerable campaign funds and media attention, smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag.New Hampshire Economic effects: New Hampshire’s 58-mile international border with Quebec is far from the usual campaign hustings and precincts familiar to political journalists in this early-primary state. Yet Canada is New Hampshire’s top international trading partner.In 2024, New Hampshire exported roughly $859.2 million in goods to Canada, traditionally including aviation parts and equipment, industrial machinery, and electronics, per the office of Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte. The state imported about $1.9 billion in goods from Canada, heavily weighted toward energy (such as gasoline and electricity), wood products, and industrial components.Midterm election campaigns: New Hampshire features a premier Senate race in the fight for partisan control of the chamber. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) has been in office nearly eight years, representing the eastern 1st Congressional District. He’s facing former Sen. John E. Sununu, a member of the Senate from 2003 to 2009, after six years in the House. His father, John H. Sununu, was New Hampshire governor 20 years before that and then White House chief of staff for President George H.W. Bush. His brother, Chris Sununu, was New Hampshire governor from 2017 to 2025.New Hampshire is a perennial swing state, with perhaps a slight Democratic lean in down-ballot elections. Ayotte was a senator for a single six-year term before losing reelection in 2016. She bounced back to win the New Hampshire governorship eight years later and is favored in her Nov. 3 reelection bid for a second two-year term.New York Economic effects: New York state’s 445-mile border with the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec includes popular and iconic visitor spots such as Niagara Falls. New York and Ontario co-own the 158-foot dramatic water drop. The Peace Bridge from Buffalo into Canada is a popular driving route to Toronto. For the gaming type, there’s a string of casinos in Canada just across the border.But with U.S.-Canada relations far from peaceful, cross-border trade to and from the Empire State is taking a major hit. New York in 2024 exported over $20 billion in goods to Canada, accounting for more than 21% of the state’s total goods exports.Going the other way, two-thirds of all New York state agricultural exports go to Canada, alongside half of its oil, gas, and mineral exports and 13% of manufactured goods.Midterm election campaigns: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) looks to be in a strong position for reelection. The most competitive House battleground features incumbents such as Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) in the Lower Hudson Valley’s 17th Congressional District, as well as other swing regions in the Hudson Valley and Long Island.North Dakota Economic effects: North Dakota is the fourth least-populated state, with about 800,000 people. Yet over its 310-mile international border with the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there are 18 land ports of entry. That’s a reflection of the interdependent economic relationship between the sides now threatened by the Trump tariff regime.Canada is North Dakota’s largest international trading partner, accounting for 80% of the state’s total goods exports valued at $7 billion annually. Local farmers and manufacturers also rely heavily on Canadian imports for essential input costs such as steel, fertilizer, and agricultural chemicals.Midterm election campaigns: Statewide elected officials either aren’t up for reelection this year or don’t face strong Democratic challenges in this deep red state. However, a GOP-backed ballot measure could face a tough time if the political tides turn against Trump and his party.Constitutional Measure 1 asks North Dakota voters to raise the threshold for passing ballot measures. It would require future constitutional amendments to win 60% of the vote to be adopted, rather than the current simple majority requirement. Critics contend it’s a thinly veiled attempt to thwart voter will.Ohio Economic effects: Ohio shares a 146-mile international water border with Ontario, located entirely within Lake Erie.Canada is Ohio’s largest international trading partner, accounting for over $17 billion in annual state exports and supporting tens of thousands of local jobs. The cross-border relationship spans tightly integrated manufacturing, agriculture, and energy supply chains. Raw materials and automotive components routinely cross the border multiple times during manufacturing value-chain processes.Midterm election campaigns: After years as a battleground state-turned-Republican bastion, Ohio has two top-tier competitive statewide elections on Nov. 3.Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who was appointed to succeed Vice President JD Vance, is running to complete the final two years of that Senate term. He faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, an Ohio populist institution who couldn’t overcome 2024 political headwinds with Trump topping the ticket.Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) is retiring due to state term limits. Venture capitalist and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy initially was a front-runner for governor, but amid tough economic times in Ohio, he’s facing a stiff challenge from Democratic nominee Amy Acton, a doctor and former state health department director.Pennsylvania Economic effects: Pennsylvania shares a 42-mile international water boundary with Ontario entirely within Lake Erie. That makes for the shortest border between a U.S. state and Canada.Residents and businesses on both sides, though, are quite familiar with each other. Canada is Pennsylvania’s largest international trading partner, with a total annual exchange of about $28 billion in goods and services. Canada buys more goods from the Keystone State than it sells to its next four largest foreign markets combined, per the PA Chamber of Business and Industry.Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), a potential 2028 presidential candidate, has emerged as a leading critic of the Trump administration’s trade restrictions on Canada. In June, Shapiro signed a memorandum of understanding with Ontario Premier Doug Ford to expand cross-border trade and economic cooperation.Midterm election campaigns: Shapiro is poised to win reelection by a wide margin. Yet the Trump tariff regime is already a major issue in House Democratic efforts to defeat four GOP incumbents in Pennsylvania — Reps. Rob Bresnahan, Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, and Scott Perry.In each case, Democratic challengers are building their campaigns around economic concerns exemplified by Trump’s tariffs, along with an anti-corruption message centered on reining in a Republican Congress that refuses to challenge a renegade Trump administration.Vermont Economic effects: Vermont’s 90-mile border with Quebec is epitomized by the Haskell Free Library and Opera House located in Derby Line, Vermont, and Stanstead, Quebec. The venue — though with considerably tightened security in the 25 years since 9/11 — is a symbol of free-flowing populations across the international border, including 15 official land border crossings, despite Vermont being the nation’s second least-populous state, with under 650,000 people.Canada accounts for roughly 31% of Vermont’s total goods exports, totaling over $600 million to $1.8 billion annually, depending on the metrics used, alongside billions in imports, per Canadian government statistics. An informal Canadian boycott and trade friction have caused an estimated $75 million loss in Vermont tourism spending, hurting local hospitality, meals, and lodging.Midterm election campaigns: Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) is poised to win another two-year term for the office to which he was first elected in 2016. Scott has long since parted ways with Trump politically, publicly stating that he would vote for the president’s Democratic opponents in the past three election cycles.Scott recently criticized Trump’s executive order renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” calling it “petty and disappointing.”Where the Trump tariff program could really hurt Republicans politically is in state legislative races. In 2024, Vermont Republicans achieved historic gains, successfully breaking the Democratic Party’s veto-proof supermajority in both chambers of the state General Assembly.Supported by a concerted campaign effort from Scott, the GOP capitalized on voter concerns about affordability and tax increases to flip dozens of legislative seats, all in a state where the dominant political figure is Bernie Sanders, the two-time Democratic presidential candidate and member of Congress for nearly 36 years, who has vocally espoused socialist policies. Those Vermont Republican legislative political gains could now be jeopardized amid Trump’s broad unpopularity and sinking GOP brand.Washington Economic effects: Since the War of 1812, the closest to violence or combat across the U.S.-Canadian border came just before the Civil War, in what’s now Washington state. And the Pig War wasn’t even technically an American-Canadian fight — or even close to a war.Rather, it was an 1859 confrontation between the U.S. and the United Kingdom — then a dominant colonial power — over a borderline location between the nations on San Juan Island, between Vancouver Island (present-day Canada) and the Washington Territory (now the state of Washington). The only casualty was a pig caught in the nations’ rhetorical crossfire. An American farmer named Lyman Cutlar was responsible for shooting it.This local dispute sparked a tense military standoff between the U.S. and the U.K., but each side eventually stood down jointly. The conflict was eventually resolved through international arbitration led by Wilhelm I, who awarded the disputed San Juan Islands to the U.S. in October 1872.By then, Canada was five years into the decadeslong process of becoming an independent country. And cross-border relations have been considerably more civil — and economically lucrative.MAINE AND GEORGIA COULD TEST WHETHER TICKET-SPLITTING IS MAKING A COMEBACKTo the point that today, the economic exchange between Washington state and Canada reaches nearly $29 billion annually. Canada is one of Washington’s largest export markets, totaling roughly $7 billion annually (representing about 11% of the state’s total export sales). Key sectors include seafood (such as shellfish from producers including Shelton-based Taylor Shellfish), industrial machinery, and papermaking. About 50% of Washington’s imports from Canada consist of energy resources.Midterm election campaigns: The most competitive House race in Washington state is actually taking place far from the Canadian border. In Southwestern Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, just across the Columbia River from the Portland, Oregon area, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is one of 13 Democratic House members representing districts Trump won in 2024 (compared to three going the other way). On Nov. 3, Gluesenkamp Perez faces Republican John Braun, the minority leader in the Washington state Senate.David Mark (@DavidMarkDC) is the managing editor of the Washington Examiner magazine.