The South Strikes Back: How Canterbury leads New Zealand’s recovery - Cameron Bagrie

Opinion byCameron BagrieNZ Herald·13 Sep, 2026 01:00 AM8 mins to readCameron Bagrie is principal economist at Bagrie Economics, a premier boutique research firm."An earthquake rebuild and cheaper housing have been keen elixirs of growth over the past decade. One has completed and the second’s advantage is being eroded as prices climb. GDP per capita dropped sharply. It is now ascending again underpinned by a broader regional upswing as the heartland flourishes. The challenge is to keep it going," writes Cameron Bagrie Boom. Here comes the recovery led by the south and regions such as Canterbury. Canterbury and Otago share the lowest unemployment rates in the country, at 3.6%. The national figure is 5.4% with a massive divergence between the North Island (6%) and the South Island (3.7%). Go south to