The Six Pack: Picks for LSU vs. Clemson, Ole Miss vs. Louisville and Tom Fornelli's lock for Week 1

There's been plenty of talk about how college football has changed in recent years, but it's not the only industry that's undergone a dramatic shift. You're here reading this column right now because you want to know what I think about college football games this week from a gambling perspective. That isn't new. People have been betting on sports since their creation.Seriously, thousands of years ago, a Roman turned to his friend at the Coliseum and said, "I'll bet you that lion is going to kill him," and his friend said, "You're on." Except, you know, they said it in Latin, not English.What's changed recently is how much easier it is to do so. You used to have to call a guy who knew a guy, or worse, actually leave your house and go to The Guy. Now you just pick up your phone and 10 seconds later your bet is in, and there's nothing to do but wait and see if you win. You can even place other bets while you wait for the outcome of your bet!The problem is, while it's easier than ever to bet, it's harder than ever to win, particularly in college football. Entire rosters change over the offseason. A lot of the data you could once rely on to make an educated guess about how strong a team would be the next season has gone out the window. It's always been an educated guessing game, but we're all less educated than ever before. That makes these early-season games tricky. Hopefully, we get lucky and start 6-0. And if that doesn't happen, at least we'll learn something from what we saw. Or, at least, we'll try to. Regardless, at least we have games to pick! 2026 College Football Playoff predictions, expert picks, most overrated and underrated teams Shehan Jeyarajah Games of the Week Clemson at No. 11 LSUI will start by saying right from the jump that I am not trying to figure out how many guys who failed to make an NFL roster this summer will be on LSU's roster. As of my writing, the issue has not been resolved, but I'm rooting for sanity to prevail. Considering this is college football -- and Lane Kiffin is involved -- I cannot be sure it will. However, I am reasonably sure that LSU is a better football team than Clemson at the moment.I'm not a popular person with Clemson fans these days because I've been pretty vocal about how the program has fallen behind the times, and its failure to adapt has turned it from one of the sport's elite to a second-tier ACC team. Maybe you believe that's a harsh assessment of the situation, but Clemson's 15-9 mark in ACC play over the last three years (including a 7-1 record in 2024!) supports my theory pretty well. To take it a step further, College Football Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) ranks Clemson's last three teams as three of the four worst in the Swinney era (the 2024 team edges out the 2021 team). Long story short, things aren't great. The talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, has dropped off. Defensively, this team had a bunch of NFL players on it last year, but that didn't stop the Tigers from finishing 7-6. So, when I look at the current rosters, LSU's is quite a bit better than Clemson's. Of course, there are a lot of new parts to the LSU roster, so it's possible there will be an adjustment period, and Clemson makes this game far closer than I expect. On the other side of that, though, is that LSU spent a whole lotta money to bring Lane Kiffin and this roster to Baton Rouge, and something tells me they will want to make a statement Saturday night when the whole world will be watching. If LSU has a chance to run it up, it will. We don't need them to, though. A convincing win will do. The Pick: LSU -10 (-112) at DraftKings No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss (Sunday)If you're new to The Six Pack, while I don't rely on trends when making picks (95% of them are noise), I will sometimes notice one that stands out. As I mentioned, the earlier in the season we are, the less we truly know about teams. Perhaps that's why, in the last three years, the favorite in season openers between ranked teams has gone 2-6 straight up. Seriously, the only two teams to win (we're not even considering the spread) were Ohio State over Texas last season, and Georgia beating Clemson to start the 2024 season.It's been Upset City everywhere else. That's not a great omen for Ole Miss entering this matchup! That said, most trends are meaningless, so it has nothing to do with my pick for this game. My bigger question is whether the market is overvaluing the Rebels, given how last year ended. Ole Miss won two playoff games. It beat Tulane and then took down Georgia in a thriller, winning on a last-second field goal (with a safety tacked on for fun). There's also the possibility that the market hasn't accounted enough for the possible drop-off from Lane Kiffin to Pete Golding. I don't mean that as a knock on Golding; I'm simply saying we don't really know who he is as a head coach yet. Last year's situation was abnormal, to say the least. I know who Jeff Brohm is as a coach. I know what to expect from a Jeff Brohm offense, particularly when he's had plenty of time to put together a game plan. I love Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss, but my biggest question mark about the Rebels heading into 2026 is how strong the defense will be. It wasn't overly incredible last year, as it ranked 62nd nationally in EPA per play. If there's a drop-off with some of the talent the Rebels lost, it will make it far more difficult to cover a full touchdown against a Louisville team that may not be a national title contender, but may prove to be one of the best teams in the ACC. The Pick: Louisville +7 (-112) at DraftKingsLock of the Week Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (Sunday)This game will be played at Lambeau Field, and let me just say it's a waste to ruin a neutral-site game there in September. You need to play this thing in late December when there's a 95% chance of snow and a 150% chance of temperatures below freezing. But I digress.I don't think Wisconsin will win this game. I know the Badgers made a lot of changes this offseason, and there's more optimism heading into 2026, but a lot of that optimism is based on the schedule being much easier than it has been. Well, this is one part of the schedule that isn't easy. Notre Dame is a national title favorite for a reason, and regardless of how much Wisconsin spent in the transfer portal over the offseason, it does not have a talent advantage here. So I see this game playing out in one of two ways. Either Notre Dame overwhelms the Badgers and absolutely suffocates the new Badgers offense to win in a blowout, or the Wisconsin defense that improved late in the 2025 season carries that momentum into 2026 and gives Notre Dame, with a returning QB but new players at other skill positions, trouble. Either way, whether it's a blowout Irish victory or a closer-than-expected affair, I don't anticipate a bunch of points being scored. The Pick: Under 47.5 (-115) at DraftKingsGiant Favorite of the Week Kent State at South CarolinaYou have to give Kent State credit: it is not afraid to get its brains beaten in by Power Four competition to start the year. Now, I don't believe it's entirely by choice (the money they get for taking their beatings is pretty important to the budget), but they always pick whatever is left of their carcass off the mat and come back to get the hell beaten out of them again next year.Since 2021, Kent State has faced 13 P4 opponents. It's 0-13 and has lost those 13 games by an average of 38.5 points per game. Florida State beat the Flashes by 56 last year. In 2024, Penn State beat them by 56, a week after Tennessee beat them 71-0. It's never pretty, and this game against South Carolina isn't likely to be different. We must remember the Gamecocks are coming off a disappointing season and have brought in a new offensive coordinator, Kendal Briles, to fix the offense. They will want to show it off to the home faithful, and the veer and shoot offenses like Briles runs don't typically take their feet off the gas. Remember, Tennessee beat this team 71-0 two years ago, and they run a very similar system. The Pick: South Carolina -35.5 (-112) at DraftKingsBig Dog of the Week Ball State at No. 1 Ohio StateBall State's starting with a 50-0 lead! We can't lose! OK, so we could lose, but I like our odds, even if it's not much fun taking the 50.5-point underdog. Still, there are plenty of reasons to like our chances.First of all, Ohio State has Texas looming. Not only will the Buckeyes be running the most vanilla game plan, but they'll also have their eyes on next week, so once the game is in control, they'll slow down and start bringing in backups. Granted, Ohio State is capable of beating Ball State by 51 points playing half-speed, but that hasn't been how Ryan Day has typically done things in his time. Since Day became head coach in 2019, the Buckeyes have played 14 games against G6/FCS competition, and they don't typically run it up. They beat Grambling 70-0 last season, but it was a week after the 14-7 slugfest with Texas, so they needed to blow the carbon out of the engine to feel good about themselves. A week later, they were content with a 28-point win over Ohio. In the 2024 season opener against Akron, they won by 46. This is a team that gameplans for a season with the expectation of playing at least 16 games. The Pick: Ball State +50.5 (-110) at FanDuelUpset of the Week UCLA at CaliforniaWe're merely dipping our toes in the upset waters to start the season. Yes, there are a lot of big spreads out there this week, and the first game of the season is when we see more shocking upsets, but I'd rather start the year with a win than go big-game hunting. This play feels far more logical.We have two programs under new head coaches. Tosh Lupoi has taken over Cal after serving as Oregon's defensive coordinator, and he brought plenty of talent with him in the portal. Bob Chesney comes to UCLA from James Madison, where maybe he'll do that thing Curt Cignetti did and turn the Bruins into a national power overnight with former JMU players. I'd say the odds are against it, but I won't rule it out. What confuses me about this line is why Cal is the home dog. Well, I can see why; I simply don't agree with it. There's a very real argument that Cal has the better QB in the game, and I'm slightly higher on Cal's offensive skill players, too. This should be close, fun, and very informative about both teams. But I've got Cal winning slightly more often, so if I can get the Bears as the underdog, it's tough to pass up the opportunity. The Pick: Cal (+105) at FanDuel