The outcome of the battle for Donbas — and the war itself — hinges on whether Ukraine can hold Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. How are two former Azov commanders leading the defense?

The Ukrainian command is trying to stop the Russian offensive — the decisive push in the battle for Donbas — on the approaches to the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban area. To do this, it has created two operational groupings, both led by veterans of the Azov Brigade: the “Center” grouping, tasked with holding Sloviansk, is commanded by Andriy Biletsky (former commander of the 3rd Army Corps), while the Azov grouping guarding the approaches to Kramatorsk is commanded by Denys Prokopenko (former commander of the 12th National Guard Brigade, which was reconstituted after the 2022 capture of its forces in Mariupol in 2022). Biletsky’s troops have already distinguished themselves with a successful offensive: they pushed Russia’s 20th Army back across the Siverskyi Donets north of Sloviansk, and are now trying to drive back the forces advancing on the city from the east and south. Prokopenko’s task is harder: he took up his new post in the midst of a fresh Russian breakthrough between Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. In this sector, Ukrainian forces are dealing with a full-blown crisis — possibly more serious than the one caused by the Russian breakthrough in the same area 14 months ago. Russian troops have already cut the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk road, are storming the first city, and are pushing toward the outskirts of the second.DobropilliaRussia’s Defense Ministry said its forces had fully captured Dobropillia and released several videos of Russian assault troops in the city as evidence. Some of the footage shows clear signs of AI processing (a practice that is becoming more common), though other clips appear genuine. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, have published videos of their own strikes on Russian forces in Dobropillia.Troops advancing from the south have reached the city center, while forces attacking from the east have reached the northern outskirts via the village of Hannivka. A third group is advancing between Dobropillia and the Pokrovsk–Dnipro road, threatening to outflank the entire area from the west. The apparent goal is to drive a wedge between the “Azov” group in Dobropillia and the forces defending the eastern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region, in the area around Mezhova.North of the Pokrovsk–Dnipro road, Russian forces have reached Hulive, while to the south they have captured Serhiivka.The main danger, though, comes from a Russian breakthrough east of Dobropillia. Russian command has moved additional forces there from the eastern part of the Zaporizhzhia region and repeated, on a much larger scale, a maneuver that failed last year: a large grouping has pushed through to the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk road and now threatens to break through to Kramatorsk’s southwestern outskirts. Russian forces have retaken Kucheriv Yar and part of the large village of Zolotyi Kolodiaz — the same settlements where a Ukrainian counterattack in August 2025, reinforced by large forces redeployed from the Sumy region, halted the well-known Dobropillia breakthrough. Both sides have simultaneously published videos meant to prove they control Zolotyi Kolodiaz, so it remains unclear which side holds the village. Russian forces, however, have already managed to get behind its Ukrainian defenders near Petrivka. Russian forces earlier reached Novoandriivka on the road to Druzhkivka farther east, raising a real threat of a breakthrough directly to Kramatorsk’s southeastern outskirts.At the same time, on the opposite flank of the area overseen by Denys Prokopenko’s group — along the front southeast of Kramatorsk — another Russian grouping continues to advance. It is moving around the northern outskirts of Kostiantynivka and Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, heading generally toward Bilokuzminovka. The terrain there is difficult: Bilokuzminovka is home to a park with cliffs dozens of meters high, backed by a ridge of hills. Even so, Ukrainian forces still have reason to fear a Russian breakthrough toward the airport on Kramatorsk’s southern edge.East of Bilokuzminovka, Russian forces have resumed their advance along the Bakhmut–Sloviansk highway, aiming to reach Kramatorsk’s northeastern outskirts.Ukrainian command also faces an additional problem: figuring out the plan behind the Russian offensive in the northern Donbas. Ukraine had previously been confident that Russian forces intended to swing deep around the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk urban area from the west and east, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat under threat of encirclement while avoiding urban combat. Ukrainian command said the western Russian grouping aimed to reach Barvinkove in the Kharkiv region, while the eastern grouping aimed to reach the confluence of the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers near Izyum. However, it now appears Russian command may have another plan as well (and perhaps not only one): to approach Kramatorsk from several directions at once and begin storming the city itself, whose prewar population was 150,000. In that scenario, the battle for neighboring Sloviansk, whose prewar population exceeded 100,000, would begin at the next stage.Sloviansk and LymanOver several months, Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi eliminated the threat of a breakthrough by Russia’s 20th Combined Arms Army toward the confluence of the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers near Izyum, as well as Russian attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets near Sviatohirsk.Andriy Biletsky’s group has finally confirmed, with video evidence, a long-anticipated development: Russia’s 20th Army has abandoned a large area west of the Chornyi Zherebets River and is now trying to organize a defense along its banks between Torske and Zarichne. Ukrainian assault troops are already operating inside Zarichne but have not yet crossed the river.Russian command’s evident task is to defend not only along the river but also the northern flank of the 25th Combined Arms Army, which continues to control the area west of the Chornyi Zherebets all the way to the outskirts of Lyman. This sector matters even more to Russian forces than the 20th Army’s: beyond hopes of capturing Lyman, the 25th Army is meant to support the flank of another Russian grouping operating on the Siverskyi Donets’s southern bank and advancing directly on Sloviansk.For now, the 25th Army is holding its territory despite problems on its northern flank near Zarichne and Yampil, and is even trying to advance into Lyman’s residential areas.Biletsky’s group, meanwhile, is trying to address the Russian advance on the Siverskyi Donets’s southern bank more radically. The commander received reinforcements for this: two brigades that had previously been fighting in the eastern Zaporizhzhia region. Using these forces, Ukraine’s “Center” group launched a counterattack against Russia’s “South” group, which had previously been advancing on Sloviansk from the east.Ukrainian forces tried to retake Rai-Oleksandrivka from Russian assault troops, who had been infiltrating from there into the town of Mykolaivka, 6 kilometers (4 miles) east of Sloviansk, in recent weeks. Ukrainian units appear to have gained a foothold in central Rai-Oleksandrivka, but Russian forces continue to hold the village’s northern outskirts.South of Rai-Oleksandrivka, Ukrainian forces have not yet managed to turn the situation around: Russian troops continue to infiltrate between the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal and the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road.Zaporizhzhia regionAs noted above, Ukrainian command was forced to redeploy two brigades to the Sloviansk area from the Zaporizhzhia region — more precisely, from the junction of the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. They had previously been part of a Ukrainian corps that had spent several months advancing on the northern flank of Russia’s “East” group, which in turn had been moving along the front toward the central districts of the Zaporizhzhia region.To organize this offensive, Ukrainian command had redeployed the 7th Air Assault Corps from the Dobropillia area back in late spring, a move that weakened Ukrainian defenses around the town. There was no choice at the time: after capturing Huliaipole in the winter, Russia’s “East” group was rapidly advancing toward Orikhiv, threatening to collapse Ukrainian defenses in the western districts of the Zaporizhzhia region and the eastern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region.The 7th Corps’ offensive achieved relatively modest results: the “East” group’s advance on Orikhiv slowed sharply, and Russian command was forced to redeploy forces to its northern flank. However, Ukrainian forces never managed to cut the “East” group’s supply lines or force it to retreat, and Ukrainian command is now being forced to gradually dismantle its strike grouping at the junction of the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.Russian forces have also attempted to storm Orikhiv. So far, only forces from the “Dnipro” group are directly involved, since Ukrainian attacks on the northern flank have delayed the “East” group from reaching Orikhiv from the east.About a month ago, Russian forces captured Novodanylivka south of Orikhiv, as well as the now-famous village of Mala Tokmachka to the east. Airborne forces redeployed to the area from the reserve simultaneously launched an offensive southwest of Orikhiv, reaching Novoandriivka and Novopavlivka.Ukrainian forces have responded with counterattacks. Russian airborne units reportedly may have been pushed out of Novopavlivka, west of Orikhiv, though there is no visual confirmation yet.At the same time, east of Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces again attacked Mala Tokmachka from several directions. Published videos show Russian forces holding only part of the village’s center and its southeastern outskirts, including the area around a penal colony whose ruins have already changed hands many times.The situation around Orikhiv continues to worsen for Ukrainian forces, however: Russia’s “East” group has resumed its offensive on a broad front toward Orikhiv and the Orikhiv–Novomykhailivka road, previously one of the main Ukrainian supply routes in the area.Troops from the “East” group have already infiltrated Omelnyk, north of Mala Tokmachka and 10 kilometers (6 miles) northeast of Orikhiv. Russian forces are advancing not only on Orikhiv itself and its supply routes, but also on Novomykhailivka to the north.So far, there are not many Russian assault troops along the Orikhiv–Novomykhailivka road. Ukrainian forces, however, are busy repelling the “Dnipro” group’s attempted storm of the city and apparently lack the strength to dislodge the Russian troops from their positions.Interactive mapAt Meduza, we are committed to transparency about our use of artificial intelligence in the newsroom. The story you’re reading was written by one of our living, breathing journalists and translated from Russian using an AI model configured to follow our strict editorial standards. This translation process is the result of extensive testing and refinements to ensure our English-language coverage is timely and accurate. A Meduza editor reviews every draft before publication.If you find any errors in this translation, please contact us at [email protected].To read Meduza’s exclusive content in English, please subscribe to our newsletter.Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team