The Opportunity Party could decide next government, new poll shows

The Opportunity Party has the numbers to enter Parliament - and act as kingmaker - according to the latest 1 News Verian poll.The poll, which was taken in the days leading up to the prime minister's confidence vote, has Labour in the lead, and National riding steady.It suggests a left bloc that includes Opportunity could form a government, after Christopher Luxon ruled out working with the party.The results of the poll:Labour: 30 percent, down 2 (38 seats)National: 29 percent, no change (36 seats)Green Party: 12 percent, down 1 (15 seats)ACT: 9 percent, up 3 (11 seats)New Zealand First: 8 percent, down 3 (10 seats)Opportunity: 9 percent, up 3 (9 seats)Te Pāti Māori: 1 percent, down 1 point (6 seats)11 percent of people said they did not know, or refused to answer.The 1 News Verian poll assumes the current Māori electorate incumbents hold their seats, meaning the poll has a 125-seat Parliament.It means neither current bloc would have enough seats to form a majority, with Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori on 59, and National, ACT and New Zealand First on 57.With Opportunity, the left bloc would have 68 seats - enough to govern. If Luxon changed his mind about working with Opportunity, the right bloc would have 66 seats.Luxon ruled out working with Opportunity near the end of July, while Chris Hipkins officially ruled out New Zealand First earlier this week - earning a rebuke from Winston Peters.The new poll comes after a bruising day for Christopher Luxon's premiership.RNZ / Zach CornelisenThe poll was conducted from August 8 to 11, with a sample size of 847.Earlier on Wednesday, the poll revealed a further 1 point drop for Luxon in the preferred prime minister ratings, putting him on 17 percent.That was still ahead of Chris Hipkins, who was on 15 percent, also down one point.Rounding out the top three, Winston Peters was on 7 percent, down 3 points.Chlöe Swarbrick was steady on 6 percent, David Seymour was up 1 point to 5 percent, Erica Stanford was up 1 point to 2 percent, and Kieran McAnulty was also up 1 point to 2 percent.Another difficult day for LuxonLuxon held an abrupt press conference on Wednesday afternoon, where he confirmed he had survived that confidence vote.He said he had the "full support" of the National Party caucus, and was focused on the election."Chris Penk launched a leadership challenge this week, which resulted in today's confidence vote. This makes his role untenable and as such I have removed his portfolios," Luxon said earlier on Wednesday.Paul Goldsmith is taking up the Defence, Veterans, Space, GCSB, and NZSIS portfolios.Simon Watts will become Minister for Building and Construction.