The Next Four Years Will Decide the Ocean’s Future

This summer, the ocean sent us another warning. In August, global sea-surface temperatures reached their highest level on record. Days later, the most comprehensive assessment of coral reefs ever published showed that increasingly frequent marine heatwaves are leaving reefs less time to recover between bleaching events. Global hard coral cover has declined by 9.5% compared with the 1980-2009 average, driven primarily by human-induced climate change.For me, this is deeply concerning, but also a reason to act. I come from Seychelles, an archipelago of 115 islands off the coast of East Africa where the ocean is inseparable from our lives, livelihoods, and future. It supports the food we eat, the jobs people depend on, and the resilience of our economy.During my years in office, I saw what is possible when governments make ocean protection a political priority. In 2020, during my presidency, Seychelles designated 30% of its waters for protection, years before the world adopted the global goal of protecting 30% of land and ocean by 2030. That experience taught me that ambitious conservation is possible when political commitment is matched by action.With fewer than four years remaining until 2030, the international community needs to bring that same determination to protecting the global ocean.Since governments adopted the global goal in 2022, countries have made important progress. Nearly 20% of land and inland waters are now designated as protected or conserved, and existing commitments could bring terrestrial protection to around 27% by 2030.But the picture at sea is very different. Around 10% of the global ocean is currently designated as protected or conserved, and existing commitments would raise that figure to only around 12% by 2030.The next phase of this global effort must therefore put much greater emphasis on the ocean. Governments need to establish more marine protected areas, strengthen national commitments where ambition remains too low, and move rapidly from targets to protection in the water.The recent coral findings make the consequences of delay clear. Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent, leaving reefs less time to recover. Recovery is still possible, but ecosystems need time and the right conditions to recover. Climate action remains essential, but reducing pressures such as overfishing, pollution and damaging extraction can give vulnerable ecosystems a better chance of recovery. Well-designed and properly managed marine protected areas can give nature the space and time it needs.But drawing a boundary on a map is not enough. The 2026 Ocean Protection Gap Report finds that while around 10% of the global ocean is designated as protected or conserved, just 3.5% is assessed as effectively protected. A protected area cannot fulfill its purpose if damaging activities continue, management is weak, or long-term finance is missing.In Seychelles, we are confronting this challenge ourselves. Having designated more than 30% of our waters for protection, we are now undertaking the harder work of turning those protections into results in the water. Our Marine Spatial Plan Initiative is legally binding, including no-take areas where extractive activities are prohibited. But effective protection also requires management, monitoring, enforcement and long-term resources.The next four years, through the end of 2030, must therefore be about both expansion and effectiveness. Success should be judged by area on a map, and by whether biodiversity recovers and communities continue to benefit from healthy ecosystems.National action alone cannot close the ocean protection gap. The high seas account for roughly two-thirds of the global ocean, yet only a very small share is protected. Species migrate across borders, currents connect ecosystems, and damage in one part of the ocean can have consequences far beyond it.The High Seas Treaty changes what is possible. For the first time, governments have a global legal framework capable of enabling marine protected areas beyond national jurisdiction. Seychelles became the first African country to ratify the treaty because island states understand that protecting our own waters is not enough. Our future also depends on the ocean we share.Governments now need to turn this legal breakthrough into protection in the water by advancing an ambitious first generation of high seas marine protected areas, supported by strong science, effective governance, monitoring, and sufficient finance.Ambition must also be matched by resources. The new assessments estimate that around $16 billion is needed each year for marine protection under the 30% target, compared with only around $1.8 billion currently spent. Without the resources to manage them, protected areas risk remaining protected on paper rather than in practice.As leaders gather at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, ocean protection should be part of discussions about climate resilience, food security, and economic stability. COP17 next month in Armenia will soon provide another opportunity for governments to confront where progress is falling furthest behind.In 2019, I spoke from beneath the Indian Ocean because I wanted world leaders to understand that we could not leave the environmental problems we have created for another generation to solve.That warning is more urgent today. But there are also reasons for hope. Countries have shown that ambitious conservation is possible. This June, French Polynesia announced an expansion that will bring 1.4 million square kilometers—around 30% of its waters—under full protection from extractive industries once implemented. Samoa and Portugal have also made meaningful increases in effective protection over the past year.We now understand more about what effective protection requires. And with the High Seas Treaty in force, we have a powerful new means of safeguarding the ocean we all share.The years between now and 2030 must be a turning point for ocean protection. We need to protect more of the ocean, protect it well, and seize the opportunity of the High Seas Treaty. If we do, we will not only safeguard biodiversity, but strengthen food security, climate resilience, and livelihoods for generations to come.