The Myth of ‘Stable Russia’: Why Washington Must Stop Fearing Russia’s Collapse

Daily reality for millions of Ukrainians is facing strikes by Russian kamikaze drones and ballistic missiles. Yet, amid the destruction, we are forced to confront a deeply painful paradox: the weapons raining down on our cities are heavily powered by American microelectronics. For years, Western – and particularly Washington – policymakers have been paralyzed by a phantom fear: “What happens if Russia collapses?”JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. This anxiety over a fragmented, nuclear-armed state has led to a slow, drip-feed approach to arming Ukraine. But while the West worries about preserving a stable Russia, it is blind to the fact that the so-called “Russian Bear” has devolved into a “hollow imperial machine,” propped up entirely by Western corporate negligence. The 2026 paradox Russia is incapable of manufacturing even basic circuit boards for its jet-powered drones and missiles. All these “Shaheds,” “Lancets,” and “Iskanders” fly using microchips smuggled through Central Asia. This is not a matter of old, pre-war stockpiles. According to official data from Ukraine’s Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy, recent examinations of downed “Shahed-238” drones and “Iskander-M” missiles revealed hundreds of foreign components, prominently including parts from US giants like Texas Instruments, Amphenol, and ON Semiconductor. Other Topics of Interest Kallas Rebukes Lavrov Over ‘Lies’ and Falsehoods at G20 EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas slammed Sergey Lavrov for spreading lies at the G20 in Atlanta, as Marco Rubio reaffirmed backing for Poland’s membership. Shockingly, some of these microchips were manufactured as recently as 2026. This proves that the smuggling networks are active right now. While these Western corporations may not sell directly to Russia, their products are systematically bypassing export controls, flooding through front companies in intermediary countries. How can the West fear Russian military might when that very might is entirely dependent on bypassed US export controls? The collapse is already happening Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime is a house of cards. The West must stop fearing its collapse and look at the reality on the ground. Logistics are burning: The unwritten pact between people and regime of stability in Russia is dead. Massive fires at critical logistics hubs and data-centers, like the giant Wildberries, Ozon and Yandex warehouses, are no coincidence. The regime hides military dual-use goods inside civilian supply chains, and as a result, the civilian network is crumbling. Economic and infrastructural suicide: Top Russian economists openly predict severe shortages. To sustain the military meat grinder—which consumes over 1,000 Russian lives daily – the regime is draining its economy of labor. Furthermore, domestic infrastructure is rotting away: as federal budgets are aggressively funneled into the military-industrial complex, regional utility systems and public housing infrastructure (JKH) are facing unprecedented systemic failures and physical decay, leaving ordinary citizens to freeze or suffer chronic grid collapses. The North Korea state is impossible: Some believe Putin will turn Russia into an isolated, manageable totalitarian camp. But you cannot lock down the largest landmass on Earth with people who have already tasted freedom and global integration. As Moscow tightens the screws to feed its war machine, regional elites will inevitably push back to save their populations from the Kremlin’s grinder. Ultimately, the regions will choose development and democracy over imperial ruin – things the federal center, controlled by Moscow’s mafia-like “Ozero” cooperative and security-criminal structures of the Federal Security Service (FSB), has always denied them. Military collapse: Beneath the Kremlin’s aggressive rhetoric and nuclear threats lies a hollowed-out system. Russia is no longer the military superpower it claims to be. Its defense-industrial complex, built on the legacy of the USSR (including Ukrainian factories and engineers) and now entirely dependent on stolen Western technology and components smuggled through gray markets, is facing a systemic collapse. When a regime that claims to rival NATO is reduced to begging for artillery shells from North Korea and kamikaze drones from Iran, it is a clear signal: the sanctions are working, and the Ukrainian resistance is bleeding the empire dry. The recent catastrophic failures of Russia’s prized strategic weapons, such as the Sarmat missile program, only highlight this irreversible degradation. The call to Washington As lawmakers in the US Senate and officials in the FBI and Department of Commerce debate “escalation,” American technology continues to flow into Russian weapons. The hesitation in Washington does not prevent Russia’s collapse; it merely prolongs the agony and costs countless Ukrainian lives. It is time for the West to abandon the illusion of a stable Russia. The FBI and the Department of Commerce must aggressively dismantle these gray-market supply chains. You cannot defeat an enemy if your own technology is unknowingly – or indifferently – supplying its arsenal. Stop holding back long-range capabilities, cut off the smuggled lifelines, and help Ukraine finish the job. The hollow imperial machine is already burning; it is time to let it fall:first to the side of the road of history, and then into a deep ditch. The resulting bottom line It would seem that the only real thing Russia is currently capable of is acts of terror and the genocide of Ukrainians – as well as of its own multi-ethnic population. It is time to drop the fear of Russia’s transformation and give Ukraine the full means to dismantle this aggressive machine once and for all. Stop holding back and playing it safe. Arm Ukraine decisively, so we can finally end the war that Putin is too terrified to stop. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.