The most spectacular midterms swings against Trump – in charts

Democrats’ decisive victory in the midterm elections saw them make gains in 99 per cent of US counties as part of a historic sweep that caused Republican strongholds to crumble. The party increased its vote share among almost all measured demographics in age, gender, income, and ethnicity, and currently leads the national popular vote by a 13-point margin, the largest for either party in decades. With dozens of House races still uncalled, Democrats are on course to secure their largest majority in Congress in more than three decades, while the party’s map of Senate seats will expand to new locations such as Kansas, Texas, and North and South Carolina. But even on such a successful night for the party, some standout victories shone through, with some notable double-digit swings since the last time the seats were contested: generally 2020 for Senate seats, 2024 for House seats, and 2022 for the governor races – apart from a few specific exceptions. North Carolina Senate, 23-point swing Democrats were strongly tipped to take the swing state of North Carolina but candidate Roy Cooper delivered a landslide for the party’s first Senate flip of election night. Cooper faced an untested opponent after the previous incumbent, Thom Tillis, retired. But his long career in local politics – including as state governor until 2025 – was also a factor in a standout victory. Dr David Andersen, a professor of US politics at Durham University, said: “Cooper is a very popular official in the state – he’s a very well-liked and respected former governor with widespread name recognition.” With anti-Trump anger and other national factors also playing in his favour, Cooper was able to rack up huge margins across the state. Texas Senate, 21-point swing James Talarico has rocketed to national prominence as the first Democrat this century to win a Senate seat in Texas. He won plaudits for a stellar campaign that mobilised youth voters while also reaching out to the state’s traditional constituents. But he was also fortunate to have scandal-plagued Ken Paxton as his opponent, Andersen believes. “Ken Paxton will go down as one of the worst Republican candidates in history,” said Andersen, noting that he was impeached by his own party over corruption allegations. Paxton was endorsed by President Donald Trump in his primary victory over the longtime incumbent John Corbyn, who many analysts believe could have kept the seat Red. Kansas Senate, 16-point swing The Midwestern state of Kansas sending a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 94 years ranked among the biggest shocks of the night, and it depended on one of the largest swings. The winning candidate, Pastor Adam Hamilton, proved a more effective campaigner than his Republican rival, Roger Marshall, a doctor tainted by a record of suing patients over medical bills. Louis Bromfield, a political researcher at Swansea University and founder of the forecasting site Horse Race Politics, suggested that “placing faith strongly at the heart of his campaign” – like Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian – in Texas – “helped in a state where faith is at the forefront of many communities”. Andersen also pointed to the economic damage of Trump’s policies in the largely rural state, with tariffs hitting farmers’ exports, and ICE raids targeting undocumented migrants that provide labour for many farms. South Carolina Senate, 15-point swing Darline Graham lasted less than six months in a Senate seat her brother Lindsey, who passed away in July, held for more than 20 years. Bromfield believes Trump’s fingerprints are all over the shock defeat. “She was appointed to finish her brother’s term, and Trump himself pushed heavily for her to run again, despite a lack of political experience,” he said. “She also aligned herself with Trump’s tariffs, which is second only to backing his war in Iran when it comes to ways to anger voters in your constituency.” Andersen also believes that choosing Graham was a decisive factor. “South Carolina should never be competitive, you really should not see a Democrat win there,” he said. “But in this electoral environment, when you put up a bad candidate – on the debate stage, she admitted not knowing a lot about foreign policy – you have the unlikely scenario of a Democrat winning.” Biggest swings in House and Governor races Some of the largest House swings were recorded after Republican gerrymandering redrew the borders of congressional districts. Democrats still won seats in areas designed to reinforce Republicans, and ran up huge scores in other parts of states that were not, such as Texas’ 15th district, where the singer Bobby Pulido won by 25 points in a previously red seat. Andersen points to the Latino population turning on Trump over issues such as deportations, after swinging behind him in 2024. Democrats scored a 36-point swing in deep-red Kentucky after the sixth district Republican incumbent Andy Barr vacated his seat to a new candidate in order to run for the state’s Senate seat. The Democrats also flipped Indiana’s fifth district with a massive 22-point turnaround over the three-term veteran Victoria Spartz. The blue wave also saw massive swings to hand governor races to Democrats. Amy Acton engineered a 33-point swing to defeat Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio, with analysts pointing to a controversial ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother as one of several failings in his campaign. “This form of gutter politics from Ramaswamy, coupled with a few utterly bizarre moments – like saying ‘my generation will be fine’ when discussing the cost of living – really exposed him as a terrible candidate,” said Bromfield. By contrast, Democrat Rob Sand won praise for his successful campaign for governor in Iowa in a 29-point turnaround, after resisting Republican waves to win down-ballot races in previous elections in the state. “He was a one-of-a-kind candidate,” said Andersen. “People knew him and liked him, and he was always going to do well in this contest.” Shorts