The Labour leader Farage should really fear

Those colleagues at Westminster who remember Andy Burnham as an MP and minister have a less ecstatic view of his powers than the citizens of Greater Manchester who have elected him their Mayor three times running. “A Blairite, a Brownite and a Corbynite walk into a pub, and the barman says, ‘What’ll you have, Mr Burnham?’” is a popular gag muttered between Labour veterans. But in a parliamentary party with a majority first elected in 2024, there are only a few cynics left who remember his careerist shape-shifting. Since 2017 Burnham has boldly reinvented himself in Manchester as a leader. Now the “charismatic chameleon” faces the challenge of his life, with the greatest potential prize in British politics. Burnham stood twice for the Labour leadership without success, in 2010 and 2015, and botched a move against Keir Starmer at last year’s conference. This time there is no doubt that he intends to become Labour leader and prime minister – and, he hopes, save the party. First he has to become an MP. That challenge is massive and much greater than it would have been had he been allowed to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Starmer and Labour’s National Executive Committee blocked him then, but they are too enfeebled now to do it again. The Green candidate, plumber Hannah Spencer, won that Gorton seat instead. Next Reform and the Greens hammered Labour in the local elections. Reform UK took 50.5 per cent of the vote this month in the Makerfield constituency, which has been made available so Burnham can run, compared to 22.7 per cent for Labour, 10.9 per cent for the Greens and 9.9 per cent for the Conservatives. Burnham is probably the only Labour candidate with a prayer of holding the seat, which is being given up by Josh Simons, who had a majority of 5,000 in 2024. But the experts – ranging from Professor Rob Ford of Manchester university to the pollster Luke Tryl of More in Common – believe Burnham enjoys phenomenal local personal popularity. The bookies agree. The early odds in the race put Burnham at 53 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Reform UK and two per cent for the Greens, who promise to “throw everything” at the upcoming contest but who do not have anything like the base they had in Gorton. He will still need all the help he can get. Burnham is the King of the North. There is also the Red Queen: Angela Rayner. Together they can be a formidable Northern duo to push back against Reform, who are the main challengers in Makerfield. Farage should fear them – he wants to make the Red Wall his territory and has done so with little scrutiny of who his candidates are. In truth, if examined more closely, his MPs smack more of the South, whether the saloon bar, House of Commons watering holes or college canteens. Former professor Matt Goodwin was a disastrous selection in Gorton, who comprehensively failed to deliver on his boasts in spite of some local links. When the voters are watching closely, authenticity matters. The contradiction between Sir Keir Starmer’s status and his bleats in support of “working people” have been central to his unpopularity. Winning the by-election against the insurgent parties will be tricky. It is made all the more delicate by the sensitivities within the Labour Party and the need for Burnham to appeal beyond the North if he is to go on and lead the recovery of Labour’s fortunes across the nation. Rayner, the former deputy leader of the Labour Party and MP for Ashton-under-Lyne, is now back in play after being cleared by HMRC – a finding which would seem to invalidate her sacking from government for breaching the ministerial code. Rayner has the northern working class authenticity which some may feel is lacking in Burnham, a Cambridge university graduate in English literature. Rayner and Burnham will need to work together harmoniously during the by-election campaign and afterwards. Her support will strengthen him. Rayner is not Burnham’s closest ally in the Labour hierarchy; she is a rival with her own power base and ambitions. Were she to turn on Burnham – perhaps hinting that he is a bit of a phoney – it could be fatal to his chances, while not necessarily advancing her own for the top job. The indications are that Ange is on board with Andy. During the by-election, canvassers face the delicate task of asking the electorate to vote Labour and to remove the Labour Prime Minister. Rayner’s somewhat unguided star power and her shrewder judgement of her audience will be invaluable in papering over those cracks. If Burnham is elected MP, she would be able to share in that victory. She is “not expected” to run against him in a leadership election, increasing the likelihood of a quick coronation. Once again the beleaguered and stubborn Starmer could be the biggest obstacle, if a vindication of Burnham as a proven vote winner in Makerfield has not finally knocked him out. Should Burnham fail in Makerfield, Labour will be certain to lose the by-election for his old job as Mayor of Greater Manchester. Starmer may still be in Downing Street. And it will be the Red Queen’s move.