The Iran conflict is escalating and Tehran is in no rush to end it

Last weekend, Donald Trump ruled out a return to full-scale war. But as he seeks an exit from a conflict he started, Iran has shown itself to be a determined adversary.On Tuesday evening, Iran launched multiple missiles at US bases in Jordan. The US military intercepted the projectiles with apparent ease, but the attack nevertheless pulled Trump back into the military confrontation.The US responded on Wednesday evening after Trump told reporters: “We’re going to be hitting them very hard, because it’s our turn to hit them.”The exchanges came amid a rapid expansion of the conflict. READ MORESaudi Arabia joined US operations against Iranian militias in Iraq, a US tanker in Egypt was set ablaze in what appeared to be a drone strike, and tensions between Ukraine and Iran continue to rise.The war, which Trump has sought to steer toward a diplomatic resolution since April, now risks escalating further at precisely the moment he hopes to move beyond it.Iran, however, is in no rush to end the conflict.It has refused to back down in the belief the US cannot continue a war opposed by 62 per cent of its citizens and sustain attacks that are depleting stocks of drones and ballistic missiles. Its leadership wants to inflict as much damage on the US and its allies as it can to deter a future war against their country.The US and its allies now face a choice between accommodating some Iranian demands or risking prolonged attacks on Gulf shipping and energy facilities and disrupting trade routes. Gulf rulers want an early end to the war as oil exports have fallen, reducing revenues. Foreign investments and earnings of billions of dollars from Emirati tourism have been cut by an estimated 30 per cent. Dubai’s role as a hub of east-west air travel has been hit by cancelled flights and disrupted schedules. While denying any intention of joining the war, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday mounted strikes on pro-Iranian Iraqi militias in retaliation for their attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Cargo ships and other commercial vessels remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Photograph: Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP [ US launches ‘heavy wave’ of strikes on Iran after pause in attacksOpens in new window ]A 60-day ceasefire agreed in June was meant to lead to progress on a range of issues, notably reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied gas are exported, and kicking to touch issues of who will control it.For Trump, his single most important goal is reopening the strait and doing so in a way that does not look like a loss for the US.But unless traffic can begin to flow through the waterway, without being cut off by Iranian attacks on tankers or insurance companies’ doubts about safety, oil prices will rise, not drop.As long as issues such as who controls the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, it seems certain the cycle of hostilities and temporary pauses will continue. [ How Iran has adapted its missile war and given the US a strategic dilemmaOpens in new window ]