The future of the Māori seats includes the Greens

Te Pati Māori is celebrating its win in five of the seven Māori electorates, but the convincing result hides the party's narrowing margins.Associate professor in politics at Victoria University, Lara Greaves, said the margins for the leading candidates have "decreased hugely" compared to last election.But Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer suggested 2023 was an outlier, and margins have historically been close in the Māori seats.It comes as the Greens' candidate and party vote support increases significantly in the Māori electorates, with one MP dubbing it a "green wave."The contest for the Māori seats was one to watch this election, due to a candidate only strategy from Te Pāti Māori as well as the allegations against its leadership, internal conflict and legal challenges in 2025.Te Tai Tokerau was particularly fascinating given Te Pāti Māori, Labour, the Greens and expelled-then-former Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi were all vying for the seat.Kapa-Kingi, in fourth place, told RNZ she was "disappointed but not done."Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. (File photo)RNZ / Peter de GraafShe still planned to grow the capacity for "bigger and more enduring change", but won't be returned to Parliament after her drawn out battle with Te Pāti Māori to remain.Ahead of the election, broadcaster and commentator Julian Wilcox told RNZ's Caucus podcast the real reason behind Te Pāti Māori's candidate only strategy - while not a new or unusual one, it was the first time it was stated so explicitly - was because they knew they were going to get "stung" on the party vote."One of the reasons why Te Pāti Māori is doing it is because of what happened last year," he said, referring to the internal turmoil and later split within the party.Wilcox said people lost faith and trust in the party itself, "so that party vote was always going to plunge."Speaking to RNZ after election day, Greaves said she was surprised Te Pāti Māori retained five of the electorate seats.Lara Greaves. (File photo)Mata ReportsDrilling into the numbers, she pointed out that both Rawiri Waititi in Waiariki and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer had significantly smaller leads over the runner up than they did in the 2023 election.Waititi has a lead of 2,274 to the Greens' Tania Waikato, in second place. His final majority over Labour candidate Toni Boynton in 2023 was 15,891.Ngarewa-Packer remains ahead in Te Tai Hauāuru by 3841 votes, compared with her 9162-vote majority in 2023."The margins for the leaders have decreased hugely. That's a massive difference," Greaves said.She said Māori voters acknowledged the strategic vote, but were also punishing Te Pāti Māori, "it's not as convincing of a win as it looks like on the surface."But Ngarewa-Packer told RNZ "you can never take for granted that you're always going to have these great results that we had in 2023."Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. (File photo)RNZ / Baz MacdonaldShe pointed to 2020 and 2017 where the margins between the Te Pāti Māori and Labour candidates were more consistently in the low thousands."Historically, there's always been really close margins, nowhere near as easy as what 2023 looked like. That was a post-COVID environment."She didn't see the lower margins this year as a signal Te Pāti Māori was losing its hold on the Māori seats."No one cycle is in isolation, or the norm."She acknowledged some people would have been disappointed in the party's conflict last term, but maintained the party performed strongly in comparison with "what the difference and gaps had been in the past."The most resounding victories for Te Pāti Māori were in Hauraki-Waikato and in Tāmaki Makaurau - two candidates who openly displayed loyalties to the two MPs Te Pāti Māori expelled.Labour has retained Ikaroa-Rawhiti with Cushla Tangaere-Manuel ahead by 3,132 votes, and the only other seat it managed to claw back was Te Tai Tonga, with Mananui Ramsden ahead by 2,773.The Greens' Hūhana Lyndon had been a strong contender for the Te Tai Tokerau seat.Hūhana Lyndon. (File photo)RNZ / Peter de GraafIt remains the closest Māori electorate race, with Te Pāti Māori's Aperahama Edwards leading Lyndon by 436 votes - 8484 to 8048.Lyndon told RNZ it was "absolutely disappointing" given how hard she'd campaigned, but was hoping the special votes would turn the seat.Across every electorate though, the Greens share of the party vote has risen - from below 10 percent in 2023, to above 30 percent in this election. Either Te Pāti Māori's strategy worked in suggesting their voters give the party vote to Labour or the Greens, or Māori voters see a real option of representation in the Green Party.Lyndon said it was because the Greens' had a plan, and the turnout showed Māori wanted to see Green options in those electorates."You can look at what's happening in terms of the green wave that we've seen across the motu with Māori voters, and I see the fact that our people value the Green Party and our kaupapa."With that momentum behind me and us, we will continue to demonstrate that we are that Tiriti party in Parliament and we will continue to fight for Tino Rangatiratanga for te iwi Māori."Māori voters have often strategically voted between Labour and Te Pāti Māori since the Foreshore and Seabed legislation saw the Māori Party's formation - now, they have another strong option.