The four scenarios facing Trump’s war with Iran, according to experts and insiders

The threat of Donald Trump launching a major new US military assault on Iran in the wake of the Republicans’ historic midterm mauling has sparked concerns among intelligence and defence sources over the potential fallout for the UK. The US President has claimed he is close to making a decision on whether he will end the war, but warned on Friday he may “destroy what is left of the country” after months of negotiations have failed to provide a ceasefire. A tactical nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground facility linked to Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, are among the scenarios now being discussed with Iran distributing iodine tablets to protect people living nearby from radiation, according to reports. But while a nuclear strike is an unlikely scenario, the fact it is being talked about highlights concerns about Trump’s unpredictability. A senior military source told The i Paper: “Trump has never graciously lost an election in his life. “The chatter in intelligence circles is that he will not slip into retirement gracefully and could seek to create a security crisis of such magnitude that he cannot possibly step down in two year’s time.” Risk to the UK? Matthew Dunn, a former MI6 intelligence officer, said British security services would be hugely concerned about the domestic security ramifications if Trump hits Iran after his midterms humiliation. He said: “We’re now into a very very dangerous, uncertain phase as a result of that, very much dependent upon the actions that Trump decides to do in terms of flexing muscle.“The blowback to the UK from the likes of Iran is an obvious massive danger as a result of that, for many reasons. “We know that Iran has significantly targeted the UK in recent years and before that. “There is every possibility that anything that Trump now does overseas, Britain, as a result of that, can be the easier target for Iran.” Armed police officers on a road outside RAF Fairford, after police declared a major incident at the base (Photo: Toby Shepheard/Reuters) Although the UK did not directly take part in bombing Iran, the US has used RAF bases such as Fairford to house its bombers which are then dispatched to Iran. In October, a court heard how a group of men were ordered to drive vans loaded with petrol to RAF Fairford by a handler known as ‘Ali’ who police believe was working on behalf of Iran. MI5 chief Sir Ken McCallum warned last month about an increase in Iran-linked aggression against Jewish sites and military bases, with the potential for more plots on UK soil if Trump strikes. “MI5 in particular, but also in partnership with GCHQ and MI6 – this will be a massive, massive concern,” said Dunn. Nuclear strikes on Pickaxe Mountain Former CIA agent John Kiriakou says White House sources have told him Trump is considering a tactical nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain to destroy everything that is underground. Kiriakou said this week Trump “wants to break that final taboo” on using nuclear weapons “so that future presidents would feel empowered to use a nuclear weapon”. But Alastair Crooke, a former MI6 officer previously posted to the Middle East, said a tactical nuclear strike on the site “will be a performative act”. Pickaxe Mountain is said to be a potential US target (Photo: Mehmet Yaren Bozgun/Anadolu via Getty) “A tactical nuclear weapon is not a deep penetrating weapon, and it certainly isn’t a deep penetrating weapon against a mountain made of granite,” he said on a recent podcast. “It won’t be effective at all. It will probably mostly sort of bounce off the granite wall.” Earth-penetrating weapons such as the US B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb have not undergone a full explosive nuclear detonation test. Israel, widely believed to have nuclear weapons, could also launch nuclear missiles from submarines, Crooke added. But if Israel or the US were to launch a nuclear strike it could dramatically escalate the risk of a broader global conflict as well as retaliatory attacks. The possible strike also comes at a time when Israel is trying to form a new government with Benjamin Netanyahu fighting to stay in power after his coalition lost its majority in the 27 October election. If Israel and the US did restart strikes, especially with a nuclear bomb, it could prove to be highly controversial with anti-war sentiment growing. Limited strikes on military targets Another option would be to launch massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure or expand the scope and scale of strikes to threaten the security of the regime. Trump could choose to hit Iran’s coastal and air defence radar sites as a precursor to air strikes on key military targets. An explosion in Tehran during US-Israeli attacks in March 2026 (Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty) But Benjamin Jensen, a director of defence at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said if Tehran launched an immediate response as threatened, the benefits of a limited strike would be low. “Limited strikes support negotiations but risk changing the risk calculus for Tehran and encouraging the regime to expand the conflict,” he said. Brian Haggerty, a former senior analyst at the CIA, said Trump could launch “defensive strikes” while continuing the US naval blockade to restrict the flow of Iranian oil to the global market. Bradley Bowman, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said: “We can try to end the war, but what do we do if the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz?” Special forces raid A raid by special operations forces could target Isfahan, the underground facilities where Iran is believed to store enriched uranium, but such an operation would be extremely complex and risky. In 2024, some 120 Israeli commandos from the specialist Unit 669 and Shaldag teams, raided an underground missile production facility in Syria to take out an Iranian-run missile manufacturing site. In April, US special forces carried out rescue missions inside Iran to extract two downed pilots in April after their F-15 fighter jet was shot down. US special forces also captured Venezuelan president, Nicolas Maduro. But military assessments suggest extracting the estimated 440kg of 60 percent-enriched uranium Iran has would require more than 1,000 personnel, heavy excavation machinery, makeshift airfield establishments, and airborne support from regular units like the 82nd Airborne Division. Jensen said such a mission would take days rather than hours, with a significantly larger force required to secure the outer cordon and carry out constant airstrikes against enemy troops. “Iran could even use ballistic missiles to target its own sites where US special forces teams were extracting uranium, creating significant risk to force and mission,” he added. A full-scale invasion There is virtually no political will in Washington, particularly within Donald Trump’s MAGA base, for another costly ground war in the Middle East. Many in Israel see regime change in Iran is the best way of removing the threat from Tehran, but in March, Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the limits of airpower as a means of overthrowing the Iranian government. “You can’t do it only from the air. There has to be a ground component,” he said. However, Israel, which does not share a border with Iran, does not have enough troops to carry out a ground invasion on its own, meaning the US troops would have to be deploy tens of thousands of its own military personnel. A more limited ground operation could be attempted to free up the Strait of Hormuz and ensure free passage of ships through the key stretch of water, which is effectively closed to commercial shipping. But Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has warned of a war “without geographical limitation” if the country was attacked again.