The Bab el-Mandeb Problem

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the fight for control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, record-high global temperatures, and Ukraine’s request for more foreign aid. The Fall of Mokha Houthi rebels in Yemen seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha on Thursday in their quest to eventually control the vital Bab el-Mandeb strait. The sweeping ground offensive—which pushed out forces allied with the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized Yemeni government—raised concerns that the two sides’ fragile 2022 truce may officially be over and that Yemen has returned to all-out war. Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the fight for control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, record-high global temperatures, and Ukraine’s request for more foreign aid. The Fall of Mokha Houthi rebels in Yemen seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha on Thursday in their quest to eventually control the vital Bab el-Mandeb strait. The sweeping ground offensive—which pushed out forces allied with the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized Yemeni government—raised concerns that the two sides’ fragile 2022 truce may officially be over and that Yemen has returned to all-out war. Renewed fighting between the Houthis and Yemeni forces erupted in July, after the Saudi-led military coalition tried to prevent a plane bringing Houthis back from Tehran from landing at Sanaa International Airport. Since then, the two sides have exchanged heavy fire, including a Saudi attack on a Houthi-run prison on Monday, which killed at least 23 people, and a Houthi operation across Saudi Arabia that same day, which injured more than 70 people. Fierce battles around Mokha in recent days have particularly drawn the international community’s attention, as many worry that Houthi control of the port brings Iran one step closer to claiming another critical waterway. For months, Iranian forces have effectively stopped most commercial traffic from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas previously passed. That has forced vessels to rely more heavily on Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. However, if the Houthis—an Iranian-backed proxy group—were to transform Bab el-Mandeb into a second choke point, then Tehran would likely turn the strait into another war front, further strangling the already volatile global energy market. Mokha is less than 50 miles from Bab el-Mandeb. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate oil prices both exceeded $100 per barrel on Thursday in response to the Houthis’ assault. “This is a potentially major strategic shift,” Maged al-Madhaji, the co-founder of a Yemen-based think tank, the Sanaa Center, told FP’s Keith Johnson. “The fall of Mokha—and, increasingly, the prospect of Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb—would allow them to turn intermittent pressure on shipping into a sustained threat at much lower operational cost.” What comes next remains unclear. Some experts suggest that the Houthis may try to seize Perim Island, a Yemeni territory that sits at the strait’s narrowest point, making it a crucial hub for controlling the flow of maritime traffic; already, the proxy group has reached the Red Sea islands of Hanish. Taking Perim, though, would grant the Houthis a similar position to Iran’s control of Larak Island, which Tehran uses to monitor global shipping and host military activity. On Wednesday, Pakistan warned Iran to rein in the Houthis’ actions or risk triggering a joint defense arrangement involving Riyadh, Ankara, and Islamabad. Today’s Most Read How to Survive in a World Without Rules by Hal Brands The World’s Only Real Hope of Maintaining Order by Charles A. Kupchan Trump’s Venezuela Oil Deal Is a Farce by Keith Johnson What We’re Following Turn up the AC. August marked one of the world’s hottest months in recorded history, according to a new report by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service on Thursday. With an average global surface air temperature of 1.65 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, August 2026 tied with July 2023 for Earth’s hottest period. Last month also saw the highest daily sea surface temperature over the extra-polar ocean (the band of ocean located between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north latitude) ever recorded, and it wrapped up Europe’s warmest summer in recent history. Copernicus cited the burning of fossil fuels and a strong El Niño climate pattern for the rise in air and sea temperatures. Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.7 percent globally last year to hit a record 54 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the European Commission said on Monday. The world’s top two emitters—China and the United States—each saw their climate pollution rates increase in 2025. These figures lend support to last week’s damning United Nations report, which warned that humanity has lost its chance to prevent some of the worst consequences of climate change, as the world has failed to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Zelensky seeks support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Calgary on Thursday to discuss opportunities for greater foreign aid and collaboration. “The main focus will be on supporting Ukraine in protecting our skies and preparing for the winter,” Zelensky wrote on X, referring to Russia’s repeated strategy of targeting civilian energy infrastructure during Ukraine’s coldest months. “We will discuss how to strengthen our resilience, support our people, and ensure that Ukraine has the capabilities it needs to defend itself.” Carney reaffirmed that sentiment on Thursday, adding that Canada “remains steadfast in our commitment to support Ukraine’s defense, recovery, and reconstruction.” He vowed to deepen defense, economic, and energy cooperation, and he unveiled another critical air defense package that adds to the billions of dollars that Ottawa has already given Kyiv since the war began in February 2022. Zelensky’s trip to Canada concludes a week of foreign travel marred by difficulties. In a trip to Oslo on Tuesday for the funeral of Norwegian King Harald V, Zelensky’s connection at Moldova’s Chisinau International Airport was delayed due to a drone threat. It is unclear who launched the drone or how close it came to Zelensky’s plane, but Moldovan President Maia Sandu claimed on Wednesday that “a Russian drone forced us to close our airspace temporarily.” Economic woes. The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate by a quarter point on Thursday, bringing it to 2.5 percent—the highest level in more than a year. This was the bank’s second increase since the Iran war erupted in late February, and it signals growing concerns that the global energy crisis will keep inflation in Europe above its original 2 percent target through 2028. “The conflict in the Middle ​East continues ​to ⁠generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to ​remain well above target for ​an ⁠extended period,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, adding that the economic outlook going into next year remains “highly uncertain.” Still, Thursday’s increase was not a shock to economists, who expected a rate hike to coincide with recent skyrocketing global oil prices. Renewed fighting in the Middle East has put central banks under greater pressure, threatened critical global supply chains, and worsened bond market volatility. Next week, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the U.S. Federal Reserve will separately meet to determine their own interest rates. Traders are predicting that all three banks will increase their rates. Odds and Ends Two men, two shovels, and one pit of dirt. Nineteen teams of two gathered in the northern Hungarian town of Nyergesujfalu on Saturday for a grave-digging competition. Organized by the Hungarian Association of Cemetery Maintainers and Operators, the contest for the quickest-dug and most stylish grave aimed to show off this vital trade skill and counter taboos surrounding death. Diggers Robert Nagy and Laszlo Kiss took first place with a winning time of 1 hour and 21 minutes, receiving a cash prize of roughly $640.