The attack ad election: Inside the parties' Facebook campaigns

Negative campaigning has surged since 2020, with National and Labour each devoting more than half their Facebook posts to attacks, new research shows.An analysis of 2222 posts made by political parties and their leaders between 5 October and 1 November deemed National to be the most negative campaigner.National published 371 negative posts, about 66 percent of its total, followed by Labour with 214, or about 51 percent of its total.Victoria University of Wellington political scientist Dr Mona Krewel said that was a "massive increase" since 2020, when about 13 percent of the posts analysed were negative.New Zealand First, ACT, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori were all below 40 percent this election, with Te Pāti Māori the lowest at 16 percent.The research, by the university's Internet, Social Media and Politics Research Lab, also revealed differences in who the two major parties were attacking.Labour's criticism was almost "exclusively focused" on Christopher Luxon and National, with less than 4 percent of posts dedicated to the minor coalition partners, ACT and NZ First.National's main target was the Labour Party, but it directed 100 negative posts at Greens' co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick, compared with 87 aimed at Labour leader Chris Hipkins.'They have made her the bogeyman of the election' - KrewelKrewel said National's intense focus on Swarbrick was unusual for a governing party."Chlöe Swarbrick should not be their go-to target."She said incumbent governments usually ran more positive campaigns and focused their attacks on their main political rival.Instead, National had repeatedly warned Swarbrick could become finance minister under a Labour-led government, despite Hipkins insisting Barbara Edmonds would get the job.Krewel described the attacks as largely "fearmongering", more reminiscent of American political rhetoric - though not to the same degree."They have made her the boogeyman of the election."She queried whether the strategy was working given posts targeting the Greens' co-leader attracted, on average, more angry emoji reactions than posts targeting Hipkins.National finance spokesperson Nicola Willis is defending the targeting of Chlöe Swarbrick.RNZ/Nick MonroSwarbrick accused National on Monday of effectively cyber-bullying her, but National finance spokesperson Nicola Willis defended the party's approach.In a post on social media, Willis said the Greens' polling strength would give them "huge leverage" in coalition negotiations with Labour."In other words, Labour cannot form a government without giving the Greens what they want," Willis wrote.Long-time National campaigner and volunteer Brigitte Morten agreed the historically low combined support for Labour and National had changed the dynamic between major and minor parties.Morten, managing director of Franks Ogilvie, said Hipkins would therefore find it harder to reject the Greens' more "radical" demands in coalition talks.She said negative campaigning attracted more attention: "No campaign can avoid putting out those negative messages."But former National government press secretary and political commentator Ben Thomas was sceptical whether the attacks were helping the party.He described the intense focus on Swarbrick as "bewildering" in the final stretch of the campaign."There is a sense that National are kind of throwing things at the wall."Thomas said National was clearly trying to "scare or unnerve" centrist voters who might be considering Labour, but he doubted Swarbrick was a particularly frightening figure to middle New Zealand.