The $130 Billion Oil Boom Fueled by the Iran War

Several oil and gas companies in the United States have benefited from increased trade following the war in Iran that began in February, and from subsequent restrictions on international energy trade. Many countries have been forced to turn to alternative suppliers due to restrictions on movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, a shift that has allowed U.S. oil majors to help fill the gap.The Strait of Hormuz has faced severe, ongoing restrictions and a functional blockade since late February 2026, following attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, which led Tehran to respond by limiting movement through the waterway. Prior to the trade restrictions, the Strait of Hormuz was used to transport around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).In 2025, roughly 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the waterway every day, equivalent to almost $600 billion in energy trade per year, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). As Iran continues to impose trade restrictions, several countries have been forced to halt energy exports, particularly in the Persian Gulf, resulting in a severe negative impact on certain economies.Uncertainties about how and when the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, and what energy trade might look like going forward, have led many countries around the globe to rapidly seek new fuel suppliers. The recent trade restrictions have exposed vulnerabilities in global energy trade and demonstrated the importance of diversification – both in energy exports and in expanding production beyond fossil fuels to renewable alternatives.A recent New York Times analysis suggests (conservatively) that U.S. oil firms have earned over $130 billion in profit this year, owing to higher fuel prices and increased demand for certain products. This assessment is based on the performance of over 50 major U.S. oil and gas companies, mainly producers and refiners, between April and September. By contrast, these companies earned less than $47 billion between them in the same period last year.Some companies are seeing higher profits than others, particularly those in the U.S. refining industry. Several Middle Eastern and Russian refining facilities have been damaged in recent years due to ongoing conflicts, threatening the world’s refining capacity and allowing U.S. oil companies to step in to fill the gap.U.S. companies can continue to operate safely and securely while several Middle Eastern refining companies must operate under dangerous conditions due to the ongoing conflict. In addition, U.S. oil and gas companies are largely sheltered from the high costs of shipping, as much of the oil they process is transported via pipeline.Geoffrey Miller, a geopolitical analyst and editor of the Gulf States Insights newsletter, explained that the war in Iran “created a risk premium that U.S.-based operators are structurally well placed to monetise,” whereas Gulf producers were “hit hard by both higher costs and risks, along with physical damage, which makes their ability to benefit from the higher prices much more difficult.”The largest U.S. oil and gas companies, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, have been two of the firms to profit most from the war, reporting sky-high third-quarter earnings in October. Exxon’s third-quarter profit more than doubled, while Chevron’s nearly tripled.Nevertheless, the profits seen so far this year remain below those of 2022, directly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent introduction of sanctions on various Russian energy products. In 2022, oil prices rose to an average of $100 a barrel, compared with around $90 a barrel between April and September this year.As U.S. oil and gas companies continue to profit, consumers across the U.S. have been forced to pay more for energy and gasoline in recent months as constraints on international fuel supplies drive prices ever higher. Estimates suggest that U.S. consumers have spent an additional $147 billion – over $1,100 per household – on gasoline and diesel since the beginning of the war in Iran. The disparity has driven a political debate over who profits and who pays the price for the war.The United States is not the only country to experience higher oil and gas profits in response to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with several European oil majors reporting higher-than-average earnings. Shell reported $12.06 billion in third-quarter earnings, roughly double what it earned in the same period last year. Meanwhile, France’s TotalEnergies more than doubled its third-quarter profit compared to 2025, at $8.26 billion.As several oil and gas companies across the Middle East and Asia continue to see restrictions on energy production and trade due to ongoing conflict, damage to infrastructure, and restrictions on movement through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. and European fossil fuel companies are expected to continue profiting from both the higher demand for fuel from these markets and elevated oil and gas prices. 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