The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026

This is part of a recurring Washington Examiner series ranking the Senate seats most likely to flip in the 2026 midterm elections. The rankings will be updated as the political landscape shifts, with new editions planned for Oct. 1 and one week before Election Day.Democrats are leaving no stone unturned in their quest to flip four Senate seats and, with it, take back control of the upper chamber from Republicans.But with the GOP’s 53-47 majority, anything short of a four-seat net gain for Democrats will still mean a slim Republican majority or even a Biden-era split Senate scenario, with Vice President JD Vance acting as a tiebreaker. If there’s one thing political operatives, candidates, and nonpartisan election forecasters can agree on, it’s that the midterm elections are a virtual toss-up for the Senate. Or as a national Republican operative described the current map: As many as eight races could swing one way or the other.“We’ve got a lot of jump balls right now, and when you consider margin of error in a lot of these races, Republicans could end up winning all eight battlegrounds or losing all eight battlegrounds,” the operative told the Washington Examiner. “That is how close a lot of these contests are going to be.”These rankings are based on meetings with party committees, as well as analysis of the latest polling and fundraising numbers. The list considers each race on its individual merits, rather than a total assessment of which party might win the majority. The list is also not meant to be declarative but instead a snapshot in time of where the most competitive races in the Senate stand roughly two months from Election Day.Graphic featuring Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), left, President Donald Trump, center, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), right. (Christine Valora/Washington Examiner) 1. North Carolina, open Republican seat Nonpartisan election forecasters believe the open seat, being vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), currently leans Democrat. It is so far the only one this cycle in which the party that does not control the seat is projected to win. The rest of the battlegrounds are either toss-ups or Democratic seats that lean in the party’s favor.Former Gov. Roy Cooper is an establishment-backed Democrat who has won four statewide elections. GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, is essentially an untested candidate who has not won elected office but rose through the ranks of the GOP over a decadeslong career between politics and private-sector lobbying.2. Michigan, open Democratic seat Michigan presents the ultimate swing-state scenario. GOP nominee Mike Rogers lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) by just 0.3 percentage points in 2024, or only 19,000 votes. The race is to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), a more centrist member who once ran Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.But Democrats have a candidate quality issue with nominee Abdul el Sayed, who is bleeding support among Jewish Democrats for his anti-Israel positions and association with left-wing Twitch streamer Hasan Piker. He also aligns with the progressive insurgent wing of candidates this cycle, many of them socialists, who have triumphed over more centrist establishment-backed figures considered stronger general-election opponents.In the primary, el Sayed bested Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), whom Democratic leaders in Washington felt was a greater challenge to Rogers. Republicans believe the state’s governor’s race at the top of the ticket could also aid Rogers.But the good news for Democrats: Michigan is the only toss-up state controlled by the party. The rest are held by Republicans, marking more pickup opportunities in their bid to take back the Senate.3. Maine, Republican seat Maine is a blue state when it comes to presidential elections, but centrist Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has, for decades, proven herself a formidable force not to be underestimated.Collins has held the swing seat since 1997, and Democrats fumbled the political football on their first nominee this year with Graham Platner. After Platner’s exit from the contest over rape and sexual assault allegations from past girlfriends, which he vehemently denied, Maine Democrats settled on former state Sen. Troy Jackson. The race is rated a toss-up.4. Ohio, Republican seat Although a perennial battleground for the Senate, the Buckeye State has become a relatively safe place for Republicans in presidential elections, much like Florida. Still, Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) is up against Democrat Sherrod Brown, a more centrist figure with statewide name recognition from his decades in state and federal politics. Most recently, Brown served three Senate terms that began in 2007 until he was ousted from his seat in 2024 by now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH). Ohio is also among the states where blowback to data centers has threatened to hurt incumbent Republicans. The race, a special election for a full six-year term to the seat vacated by now-Vice President JD Vance, is a toss-up.“Ohio is statistically tied and extremely competitive,” the national GOP operative said. “Husted has the advantage, electorally speaking. Financially speaking, Democrats are committed here, so more resources are going to be needed in Ohio. They’re dumping more and more money into it, and we’re going to have to keep pace.”5. Alaska, Republican seat Both leading candidates — Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and Democrat Mary Peltola — enjoy broad name recognition. Sullivan is a two-term incumbent, and Peltola is the former at-large congresswoman.Peltola is a centrist who has distanced herself from the national party and placed first in the all-party primary, leading Sullivan by 8 points. Dan J. Sullivan Jr., a former Democrat running as a Republican, is among the four candidates to advance to the November general election and threatens to confuse voters at the ballot box. But Sen. Dan Sullivan will be labeled as the incumbent for added clarity, and he successfully fended off a challenger in 2020 by double digits. The state is a toss-up.6. New Hampshire, open Democratic seat Republicans are especially bullish about New Hampshire’s open seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). John E. Sununu, the brother of former centrist Gov. Chris Sununu, has an independent streak of his own and enjoys broad name recognition, presenting a formidable challenge to Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH).However, the Granite State has a track record of electing Republican governors while going blue in presidential races, and it has a gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket this year. Still, the seat “leans” in Democrats’ favor.7. Texas, open Republican seat Democrats are bullish that they have a solid opportunity to flip what has been a longtime GOP seat. But the party has been optimistic for several cycles, only to be let down on Election Day after diverting large sums of money from other races.Now, GOP nominee Ken Paxton, who successfully primaried Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), is once again giving Democrats renewed optimism. Paxton has a checkered past, including a messy divorce and a state impeachment for bribery and abuse of office as attorney general, for which he was later acquitted by the Texas Senate. Republicans will have to spend big to keep the seat, siphoning money they’d prefer to spend elsewhere. Democratic nominee James Talarico is a strong fundraiser but faces attacks that his record in the state legislature is far too liberal for the Lone Star State. Also working in the GOP’s favor is Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) up for reelection at the top of the ticket.“Everyone continues to believe Texas is going to be just fine. It’s going to take money. It’s going to take resources,” the national GOP operative warned. “But Talarico ultimately has a very long record of woke, anti-Texas policies that are going to be difficult for him to explain.”8. Georgia, Democratic seat Another purple state, Georgia, is a top target for Republicans to oust Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). He has not moderated his positions and anti-Trump rhetoric like other battleground Democrats have, and Republicans feel the gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket will buoy their efforts to flip the seat.But the GOP nominee, Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), has faced a series of negative headlines about family and former staff involved in white supremacist social media posts. Ossoff, a possible 2028 presidential candidate with national name recognition, is also a fundraising juggernaut. The race leans in Ossoff’s favor, according to nonpartisan election forecasters.9. Iowa, open Republican seat Two-term Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) is not seeking reelection, creating another open seat that forecasters say is either a toss-up or leans for Republicans with Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek.Trump carried Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Still, it too has a gubernatorial race, only this time it could spell bad downballot news for Republicans. The governor’s mansion, being vacated by retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), leans in Democrats’ favor. The mixture of Ernst’s retirement and a general midterm headway against the incumbent party means Republicans have yet another competitive statewide contest in the Hawkeye State.10. Minnesota, open Democratic seat With Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic nominee, and former TV sports reporter Michele Tafoya, the Republican, are facing off for the open seat. It leans in Democrats’ favor the most out of any race on this list, with forecasters predicting it as a “likely” Democratic seat.Still, Republicans see a path to elect a GOP senator in a state that has not done so since 2002, thanks to a prized GOP recruit and Democrats opting for the more progressive Flanagan over the establishment-backed Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN). Republicans see Flanagan as vulnerable to Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN) administration’s handling of state government fraud scandals. Tafoya stands out as an abortion-rights Republican in a party that is almost entirely anti-abortion, a representation of how some of her moderated policy stances could be appealing in a blue-leaning state.