The 10 House seats most likely to flip in 2026

This is part of a recurring Washington Examiner series ranking the House seats most likely to flip in the 2026 midterm elections. The rankings will be updated as the political landscape shifts, with new editions planned for Oct. 1 and one week before Election Day.Democrats need to flip just three seats to regain the House majority, and with fewer than 50 days until Election Day, they look poised to win the chamber for the first time since 2020.But the battlefield is small, thanks to a frenzy of nationwide redistricting in 2025 and 2026, and a handful of races are poised to shape the fight for the House majority. Republicans are on the defense in several races, as the party tries to convince voters to give them another two years to finish their work despite significant headwinds created by the rise in prices due to the war in Iran. Democrats, meanwhile, faced significant electoral setbacks due to a redistricting war, which saw Republicans get the upper hand in several races across the 2026 battlefield, but the momentum appears to be on their side as Republicans face a difficult political environment.These rankings are based on meetings with party committees, as well as analysis of the latest polling and fundraising numbers. The list considers each race on its individual merits, rather than a total assessment of which party might win the majority. The list is also not meant to be declarative but instead a snapshot in time of where the most competitive races in the House stand roughly a month and a half from Election Day. 1. Florida’s 9th District, Democratic seat Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) is seeking another term in Florida‘s 9th District, an Orlando-area seat that has become more competitive as Republicans have gained ground in Central Florida.Soto won reelection in 2024 with 55.1% of the vote and outperformed then-Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by roughly 8 points in the district. However, Soto is also facing a new electorate after Florida’s GOP-led legislature passed a new congressional map. Under the new map, Soto’s left-leaning 9th District is dramatically reshaped.As previously drawn, the district has a large Hispanic and Puerto Rican population, containing Orange, Osceola, and Polk counties, that voted for Harris by 4 points in 2024 and reelected Soto by a 12.5-point margin.But under the newly drawn map, the district would swing 21 points in Republicans’ favor and would have gone to President Donald Trump by 18 points.2. Alabama’s 2nd District, Democratic seat Freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D-AL) is defending one of the most Republican-leaning districts held by a Democrat after midsummer redistricting transformed this safe blue Mobile-area seat.Figures won Alabama‘s 2nd District in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, becoming one of the first Democrats to represent the district under its new lines.Republicans are targeting Figures in 2026, with state Rep. Rhett Marques as their nominee. Trump carried the district by 14.3 points in 2024, making the seat a tough lift for Figures, but a favorable political environment is likely to make it competitive.Cook Political Report currently rates the race as likely Republican, and the National Republican Congressional Committee has placed the district on its target list.3. Nebraska’s 2nd District, open Republican seat Nebraska’s 2nd District is one of the few competitive open-seat contests on the House battlefield after Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) announced he would not seek reelection.The district was won by Harris in 2024 by 4.6 percentage points, making it a prime flip opportunity for Democrats this cycle. Democrats have long tried to defeat the centrist Bacon, all to no avail, but get their best opportunity in years to flip the seat with it vacant.Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha city councilman, is facing Democrat Denise Powell in the general election. Powell narrowly won the Democratic nomination.Powell has sought to tie Harding to Trump, arguing that the Republican candidate would be a “rubber stamp” for the president’s policies if elected. Harding, meanwhile, has accused Powell of receiving “dark money” from super PACs to fund her campaign. 4. North Carolina’s 1st District, Democratic seat Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) is defending his seat against Republican Laurie Buckhout in a rematch of their 2024 contest.Davis won that race by about 1.7 points, but the district has since been redrawn. Under the new boundaries, Trump would have won the district by more than 11 points in 2024.The race is therefore taking place on significantly different political terrain than the one Davis won two years ago. Cook Political Report currently rates the contest as lean Republican.5. Maine’s 2nd District, Democratic seat Maine’s 2nd Congressional District will be an open-seat contest after Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) decided not to seek reelection.Democrat Matt Dunlap, the current Maine auditor, is facing former Republican Gov. Paul LePage.Golden has held the seat since 2019, and his retirement creates a major opening in a district that has repeatedly been competitive in recent elections. The district voted for Trump in the 2024 presidential election by 9 points.6. Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Republican seat Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA) is considered one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents this fall.Mackenzie represents Pennsylvania’s 7th District, having flipped the seat from Democratic control in 2024 from then-Rep. Susan Wild by roughly 1 percentage point.Trump carried the district by about 3 points in 2024, making it one of the most competitive seats in the country. Democratic nominee Bob Brooks, a former firefighter and union leader, is challenging Mackenzie in November.Brooks has sought to paint Mackenzie as a “lapdog” for Trump as he tries to flip the seat from GOP control, while the Pennsylvania Republican has hit Brooks over a financial settlement with his own family and for taking money from lobbyists for artificial intelligence. 7. Iowa’s 1st District, Republican seat Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) is no stranger to tough races, having won her first term in 2020 to Iowa‘s 1st Congressional District by just 6 votes.But this cycle could prove to be her toughest race yet, as backlash over the rise in gas and diesel prices threatens her reelection campaign. Seeking to distance herself from the war, Miller-Meeks was one of two Iowa Republicans, joined by Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA), to support a resolution directing Trump to end the war last week.The Iowa congresswoman also issued a dire statement on Monday, saying, “When a patient is hurt, you stop the bleeding first. Then you fix what caused it.”Trump won Iowa’s 1st District by almost 9 points in 2024, while Miller-Meeks narrowly defeated former state Rep. Christina Bohannan — who’s back for round three against Miller-Meeks — by just 799 votes.8. Colorado’s 8th District, Republican seat Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) is defending one of the narrowest Republican victories from the 2024 election, having only won the election by less than 2,500 votes.Trump won the district in 2024 by less than 2 percentage points. Evans defeated then-Rep. Yadira Caraveo, flipping Colorado’s 8th District, which includes parts of the northern Denver suburbs and Greeley. State Rep. Manny Rutinel, a Democrat, is facing Evans in the general election. Republicans have tried to paint Rutinel as too progressive for the district after he knocked off an establishment-backed opponent in the primary.9. Pennsylvania’s 8th District, Republican seat Another Pennsylvania Republican, Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-PA), has only been in Congress for one term, having won in 2024 when he narrowly defeated longtime Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright.Bresnahan represents the Scranton-area 8th District and won his first term by roughly 2 points. Democratic nominee Paige Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton, is seeking to flip the seat back to Democrats.Trump won the district by roughly 8.5 percentage points in 2024, with the district having trended toward Republicans in recent cycles. However, the freshman Republican has been dogged by questions over his stock trading while in Congress, after he was found to be one of Congress’s most frequent traders in the first year of his term.Cognetti and Democrats have repeatedly hit Bresnahan over his stock trades, accusing the Republican of breaking public trust, after he campaigned on banning congressional stock trading in 2024. Bresnahan, meanwhile, has hit Cognetti over her mayoral record.10. New Jersey’s 7th District, Republican seat Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) flipped this north-central New Jersey seat — one of the wealthiest in the country — in 2022 before holding on to it again in 2024. This year, he faces tougher terrain.Kean disappeared from Congress for more than 100 days during the summer before returning to Capitol Hill and announcing he was battling depression. The fallout made national headlines, and Democrats are arguing that he’s not a reliable representative for not disclosing where he was.Democrats are running Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy pilot, against Kean and they’ve dinged him for making stock trades during his absence.COOK POLITICAL REPORT PROJECTS DEMOCRATS WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE HOUSE AS RACES SHIFTRepublicans are comparing Bennett to Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and are attacking her for her career in healthcare, which the GOP declares is “shady.”Suburban districts have moved increasingly away from Republicans since Trump was first elected in 2016, and, despite Kean’s popular family name, the unique circumstances of this race makes it one of the marquee contests down the stretch.