Texas vs. Texas State prediction, odds, time: Week 1 college football picks from proven model

This page may contain affiliate links. If you click and sign up, make a deposit, or place a wager, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its Saturday best bets for the Texas State Bobcats vs. Arch Manning and the No. 4-ranked Texas Longhorns Sep 4, 2026 at 7:52 am ET • 2 min read The Texas Longhorns entered the 2025 college football season as the nation's top-ranked team in the preseason polls. They finished outside the College Football Playoff field. Arch Manning and the Longhorns aim to clear that CFP hurdles in 2026, as fourth-ranked Texas hosts the Texas State Bobcats to begin a new season. It's also an exciting time for the Bobcats, who will be part of a revamped Pac-12 Conference and coached by former Longhorns quarterback G.J. Kinne. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $200 in bonus bets as a new user after $5+ in wagers here:Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The Longhorns are 29.5-point favorites in the latest Texas State vs. Texas odds, while the over/under is 59.5. Before making any Texas vs. Texas State picks, check out the Texas vs. Texas State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to even better factor in the transfer portal to help nail college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites.Now, the model has set its sights on Texas State vs. Texas. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Texas vs. Texas State:Texas vs. Texas State spreadTexas -29.5Texas vs. Texas State over/under59.5 pointsTexas vs. Texas State money line Texas -10000, Texas State +2450Texas vs. Texas State picksSee picks at SportsLineTexas vs. Texas State streaming Fubo (Try for free) New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $25 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS:Top Texas vs. Texas State predictionsAnyone looking for Texas prediction markets should know that after 10,000 simulations of Texas State vs. Texas, the SportsLine model is going Under (59.5 points) on the total. Texas State ranked 12th in the nation in scoring last year and returns starting QB Brad Jackson, who threw 21 TDs as as a freshman. The Bobcats were the only FBC team to have two 1,000-yard receivers, and both of them are back, too. But the Texas' defense is supposed to be top-tier, with new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp taking over. The squad allowed only 20 ppg last year and has playmakers at each level. The advanced model calls for 52 combined points to be scored, well under the posted total. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.How to make Texas State vs. Texas picksSportsLine's model has simulated Texas State vs. Texas 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. So who wins Texas State vs. Texas, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas State vs. Texas spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks, and find out.