Texas vs. Missouri prediction, pick, odds, spread: Longhorns, Tigers face off with CFP hopes on the line

Two former Big 12 foes are set to clash for the first time as members of the SEC on Saturday Nov 5, 2026 at 3:40 pm ET • 3 min read No. 7 Texas and No. 18 Missouri will square off as SEC foes for the first time on Saturday in a clash between two-loss teams seeking traction in the College Football Playoff picture. The Tigers (6-2, 3-2 SEC) have already blown out league foes Florida and Texas A&M at home this season and are 13-3 at Faurot Field against league opposition since 2023.Taking on Texas (6-2, 3-2) represents an uptick in competition, but the Tigers shouldn't be lacking confidence. Florida was No. 8 in the AP poll when it arrived at Mizzou on Oct. 3. It left with a 45-17 loss that legitimized Missouri and showed its full potential.Since then, we've also seen Missouri's floor, which was found in a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss on Oct. 17. But after a bye week and a 34-10 "get right" win over Arkansas in Week 9, the Tigers appear to be back on track. The Longhorns are entering off wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State, but their vaunted offense is still falling short of expectations.Is this the point when everything will start to click for quarterback Arch Manning? If a Texas team that spent four weeks at No. 1 earlier this season is going to meet expectations, a breakthrough needs to come soon. Texas vs. Missouri: Need to know Injuries mount for Texas: Injuries are adding up for the Longhorns, who enter this matchup with star receivers Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman listed as questionable. Wingo is dealing with a quad injury while Coleman is working through a shoulder issue. Both have appeared in all eight games for Texas up to this point while combining to catch 11 of Arch Manning's 15 touchdown passes. Star edge rusher Collin Simmons is also questionable after missing Texas' past two games because of an ankle injury. That's a lot of star power in the "questionable" category for Texas. By contrast, Missouri's injury report is nearly clean.Welcome back, Ahmad: Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy made his 2026 debut last week, carrying the football twice in the Tigers' win over Arkansas. The 2025 All-American has been on the mend from a gunshot wound, and his return adds to a running back room that already features the SEC's leading rusher. Jamal Roberts became the conference's first back to surpass 1,000 yards for the season while rushing for 138 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in a win over Arkansas. Roberts surpassed 200 yards in wins over Florida and Texas A&M last month. Gaining traction against Texas will be tough. No team has averaged more than four yards per rush attempt against Texas.College Football playoff implications: Texas' chance to reach the College Football Playoff will improve to 67.5% with a win, according to the CBS Sports CFB Forecaster. They will drop to 22.8% with a loss. If the Longhorns lose, they would need to win out against LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M in order to potentially reach the 12-team field as a three-loss team. Missouri's chances to make the CFP will improve to 16.1% with a win. Those hopes would crater to 1.6% with a loss. The Tigers close with Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma. Where to watch Texas vs. Missouri live Date: Saturday, November 7 | Time: 12 p.m. ET Location: Faurot Field -- Columbia, Missouri TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (try free) Texas vs. Missouri prediction, picks The best unit on this field is the Texas defense. Regardless of the health status of star edge rusher Collin Simmons, the Longhorns should be able to slow down a Missouri offense that hasn't faced a swarming unit of this caliber. If Arch Manning can just take care of the football like he did last week, Texas can lean on its defense, win the field position battle and put stress on a Missouri defense that showed real vulnerability in losses to Mississippi State and Ole Miss. The Tigers have been great at home the last few years, but they are a rung below Texas in overall talent level. Pick: Texas -2.5SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 10 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's 80-77 on top-rated CFB picks this season.