Texas: The Democratic bet in the midterms to gauge Republican loss of support

Anything can happen in these midterms in Texas. In the most anticipated race, the Senate contest, the outlook is unclear for either candidate. The gap between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton falls within — or close to — the polls’ margin of error. But in the final stretch of the campaign and with the winds at their backs, it is the Democratic Party that remains hopeful of winning that seat after decades of defeats.Talarico, a rising Democratic star and state lawmaker, and Paxton, the controversial attorney general, have crisscrossed — and revisited — key Texas locations to secure votes from undecided voters, first-time voters, independents, and their core supporters.Seeking swing and disillusioned voters, Talarico, a moderate progressive with strong Christian values, has campaigned confidently in Latino-dominated border districts that voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 but are now angry over his immigration policies and weak economic performance. He has moved from there to big cities, where EL PAÍS even found African American voters casting ballots for the first time who say they will back him because they see in him someone who can raise their needs in Congress. With strong private funding, Talarico has even reached remote communities, where he campaigned at the same time as Republican candidates accompanied by Trump.Paxton, for his part, has run a turbulent campaign in which he has had to contend with controversy and with Republican disappointment at his candidacy instead of that of veteran Senator John Cornyn. And although Trump has been insistently urging voters for the past two months to support him, surprisingly the polls still do not show the three-time Texas attorney general in the lead. He hasn’t even managed to gain an edge after questioning Talarico’s religious faith at every rally or raising controversial issues that stir recurring fears among Republicans — such as his Democratic rival’s alleged support for gender transition in children.This contest — alongside the race for the state’s governorship and the House seats in districts recently redrawn by Republicans to favor their candidates — has focused all eyes on Texas. The battle has taken on national significance, not only because a Democratic win would be the first in more than three decades in a territory that traditionally dresses in red and is a Trump stronghold, but because it could give them another seat in their bid to regain control of Congress.For the first time, voters could punish the incumbent over major issues: poor economic performance — with inflation rising to 3.7% in September — tariffs, the war with Iran, and the separation of migrant families from their communities.At stake, for the first timeWhen discussing the races in Texas, some political analysts say the competition is so close in this state that it won’t be over until the polls close and the votes are counted.For Texas Governor Greg Abbott, the 2026 campaign has been his toughest fight. Since 2014, the Republican, a long-established state politician, has never lost an election for his office. He has comfortably beaten every Democratic challenger he has faced. But the margin with his opponents has narrowed election after election, and forecasts have never been as close as they are now.By any poll you look at, he leads his Democratic rival Gina Hinojosa, although — as in the Senate race — he is only ahead by about as much as the statistical margin of error. Seeing that, Democratic figures rushed to boost funding for their candidate’s campaign and the gap kept shrinking. Hinojosa, aware of her momentum, has challenged Abbott to debates in various forums and has appeared ready to face him, but the governor has not shown up, as he did in prior campaigns.Daughter of a prominent state Democratic politician, Hinojosa was born and raised in Texas border towns in the Rio Grande Valley, a territory in dispute in these midterms. She graduated as a lawyer and says on her website that she entered politics by accident after defending the closure of her son’s school when the state threatened to cut its funding. She won that fight and in 2015 became president of the Austin school district parent board. A year later she was elected state representative, a post she has held to date.Her campaign slogan is “Don’t let them tell you it can’t happen in Texas” and she promises to tackle educational issues that worry the state’s parents, but above all she has pledged to fight the corruption she says is being generated by the governor. She is also opposed to the expansion of data centers in the state and has promised to lower property taxes, the cost of living, utility costs, and healthcare expenses.The race for Texas governor is another contest that has shown 2026 is different in the political and economic climate of this traditionally red state. Analysts consulted say the omnipresence of Trump could be shifting the numbers against candidates from his own party.Looking ahead, analysts interviewed by EL PAÍS — such as Jerónimo Cortinas, director of the Center for Mexican-American and Latino Studies at the University of Houston — say that Texas could turn red, blue, or purple, depending on how elected officials respond to the needs of their constituents. But in any case, that shift in political color will take even longer.Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition