Terence Corcoran: Carney issues ‘forward guidance’. So where are we going?

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So where are we going?Carney’s 'hinge' theories drive economic policy, not a trade deal with the U.S.Last updated 7 minutes ago Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks about the trade dispute with the United States at the Davie Shipyard in Levis on August 24, 2026. Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP via Getty ImagesBrimming with confidence and nationalist pride, Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered an online video address this week to explain how his government’s tariffs on $27-billion worth of imports from the United States was an essential retaliatory move. “This won’t be easy,” he said in words carried across all media, “and I won’t pretend otherwise.”THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountThe retaliatory tariffs amount to another escalation in a trade war launched by President Donald Trump, but Carney’s comments — filled with today’s top policy clichés — portrayed the Trump tariffs as another historic moment in Canada’s never-ending battle to maintain its independence from the ever-expansionist United States empire.In his 15.24-minute official video, titled “Forward Guidance: A Stronger Canada,” Carney promised to do “whatever it takes” with our “resilient economy” to help Canadians who have been “building strong” for more than a century. Canada is “more resilient, more independent” and ready to get “shovels in the ground” and “buy Canadian,” said Carney. One of Canada’s strangest traits: “resilience.” It is certainly one of the PM’s favourite clichés.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againThe “Forward Guidance” label on Carney’s video raises the question: Where is he taking us? Into what kind of policy future is he “guiding” the Canadian economy?At one point in his video, Carney makes familiar comments on the reasons Canada walked away from trade negotiations. But then Carney claims that it was “a shame” that Canada could not accept the proposed U.S. trade terms “because a mutually beneficial trade agreement between Canada and the United States is possible.” Such a deal, he added, would need to respect Canadian sovereignty and build “on our complementary strengths.”The desirability of a good long-term deal was echoed the next day by Royal Bank of Canada CEO Dave McKay. Speaking at a banking conference, McKay said he is worried about the expansion of the trade war. “It’s important that we get a good long-term deal for Canada. There’s enormous benefit on both sides of the border … the relationship is important for America and it’s important to Canada.”But is Carney actually guiding Canada toward a good long-term deal with the United States, an objective that is next to impossible with Trump? There is also ample reason to doubt that a trade deal is actually high on the Carney priority list. Through his Forward Guidance comments, the prospect of a mutually beneficial U.S. deal received about 40 words of attention compared with about 2,000 dedicated to putting Canada on a high-speed train away from U.S. domination via major expansion of government intervention.The full details of Carney’s grand remaking of Canada is to be spelled out in “The Hinge: Time To Build An Even Better Canada,” a book that has been rumoured and promoted for some time but has yet to be published. The Forward Guidance video comes across as a bit of summary of what one might expect in The Hinge.For now, the video is a useful summary of Carney’s plan to bring increased government involvement and management of the economy: new trade routes, less reliance on the U.S., buy-Canadian policies, the construction of major infrastructure, new ports, energy corridors, hospitals, electricity grid expansion, homebuilding subsidies, and support for artificial intelligence, mining and mineral development.This advertisement has not loaded yet.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.The Carney hinge model envisions the federal government as a manager of leftist economist Marianna Mazzucato’s vision of the “entrepreneurial state.”Next week the focus will shift to government-directed investment projects at the Canada Investment Summit, where Canada Inc., under the executive control of CEO Mark Carney, will lay out a key part of his economic plan. Co-hosted by two Canada Inc. subsidiaries — the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board — the summit will attempt to attract much of what the government hopes will ultimately deliver $1-trillion in new national and foreign investment over the next five years. A 66-page federal corporate investment document was leaked to the media this week listing 167 projects that are to be presented to a couple of hundred foreign and national institutions.The summit, backed by Canadian corporations and banks, appears as one of the vehicles for a new Canadian economic model driven first by government and secondarily (if at all) by markets. Forget real free trade and market-driven investments. The government is in control, which is one of Carney’s fundamental principles. As he argues in his many writings, free markets and free trade deliver value to investors and corporations, but fail to fulfill the values of individual citizens. In the context of Carney’s hinge mission to change the role of government and undermine the role of markets in the Canadian economy, the headline-grabbing trade war with the United States becomes little more than a distraction, a background noise that detracts from what is really planned for Canada.Carey’s position is in stark contrast with that of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Appearing on CNBC in New York on Thursday, Poilievre laid out his policy alternative. He called for free trade between Canada and the United States and free markets in general.Poilievre should bring that message home to Canada. That’s the kind of forward guidance Canadians need to hear now.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.