Swedish opinion polls show tightening race between left and right flanks

Sweden’s Social Democrats embrace tougher immigration and crime policies as the right wing seeks to close the gap ahead of the election.MALMÖ, Sweden (CN) — Sweden’s political parties entered the final sprint to persuade voters to join their political flanks on Saturday, just a day before the national election.A total of 349 parliamentary seats are up for grabs, and whoever secures majority support will become Sweden’s next prime minister.In Malmö, Sweden’s third-largest city, Sven-Erik Rasmusson is making a final push for the Social Democrats at Gustav Adolfs Square. He remains optimistic that a new government is on the horizon.“We have prioritized knocking on doors, and in Malmö I believe we have had up to 25 thousand conversations. My local organization resides in a housing area right outside Malmö, and here we had 1.200 conversations. 1.150 of them, good ones,” said Rasmusson.Different media organizations and analysts show varying polls, but most point to a close race between Sweden’s two political blocs, a sharp change from just weeks ago.Polls had long projected a comfortable win for the left. Friday’s numbers still put the bloc ahead with 50.8% of the vote, but its lead has narrowed to 3.2 percentage points, with the right at 47.6%.Sweden’s current government is its first right-wing coalition in more than a decade. Backed by the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, which has neo-Nazi roots, the coalition has introduced tough measures aimed at crime and immigration, two major issues in Swedish politics.In the 2018 election, the Sweden Democrats won 17.5% of the vote, becoming a major force in Swedish politics. Four years later, they won 20.6%, making the once political outcast Sweden’s second-largest party. This year, they want ministerial posts.“We haven’t announced who we will work with. We can cooperate with anyone but the Sweden Democrats,” said Rasmusson.Sweden’s center-left Social Democrats have been the country’s largest party for more than a century, and 2026 is unlikely to change that. The once immigration-friendly party has largely embraced the new political status quo.That approach could return it to power, as it did for its sister party in neighboring Denmark, where Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has drawn international attention for her tough stance on non-European refugees.Swedish observers say leaders of the eight parties in parliament have turned some debates into uncharacteristically bitter clashes marked by personal attacks.At Thursday’s party leaders’ debate, Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson asked Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson, “Why are you always so angry?”Andersson, a key candidate to retake the prime minister’s office for the left, criticized Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, leader of the center-right Moderates, calling his behavior “unworthy of a prime minister” after he criticized the Social Democrats’ crime policy as “betraying crime victims.”“Åkesson said in a debate that he finds it terrible that Muslim votes can decide an election outcome. Stuff like that gives goosebumps. That’s how a true racist talks,” said Rasmusson.Sweden Democrats in Malmö taking time to converse with voters, the right-wing party would like to receive dot from on Sunday's national election., Saturday, Sep. 12, 2026. (Lasse Sørensen/Courthouse News)Across the square, Niklas Röhr campaigns for the Sweden Democrats. He supports continuing the current coalition, but with Sweden Democrats serving as ministers, and believes the right’s momentum will hold through Sunday.“I think it’s like this: once the voters are in a voting booth, they will know exactly what one side represents, and they will know exactly who is going to govern,” said Röhr.Röhr also said the Sweden Democrats have shown they are ready for greater responsibility.“There is no government constellation in Swedish history that has delivered so much in such a short time in relation to what it went out and promised,” he said.Alfred Arnborg, a Swede living in Denmark who works in analytics for the think tank Europe and specializes in Swedish politics, told Courthouse News in an email that the Social Democrats have openly acknowledged drawing inspiration from Denmark to gain support.“Sweden’s Social Democrats have, on a broad range of topics, leaned towards the current government’s tough line on migration and criminality, and by doing so, neutralized some of the right wing’s political standpoints. But Sweden has not yet gone as far as Denmark. Sweden does not currently have the same debate about challenging international human rights conventions,” said Arnborg.Courthouse News correspondent Lasse Sørensen is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads