Sweden’s rightwing government bets on economic growth to win next weekend’s election — will it work?

Sweden will hold general elections next Sunday (13 September), a vote that will decide the political direction of the country after four years of the Tidö Agreement – the existing four-party rightwing coalition agreement. As the date approaches, prime minister Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right coalition is banking heavily on macroeconomic optimism to secure a second term. Sweden changed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 27 August – contrasting sharply with the broader European Union average of around 1.1 percent. With inflation slowing below one percent, the government insists its policies to boost households and businesses will allow Sweden’s economy to outpace European rivals over the coming four years. But will this optimistic message be enough? On paper, a 2.5 percent growth rate and promises of free kindergarten and tax cuts should be a winning re-election ticket. However, despite this economic narrative, Swedish households remain gloomy, particularly those on lower incomes who are still recovering from the post-pandemic cost-of-living crisis. Recent polls demonstrate that the centre-left opposition is firmly in the lead at 52.4 percent, leaving the ruling coalition plus the far-right Sweden Democrats trailing at 45.6 percent. However, voters are balancing the coalition’s economic successes against deep-rooted structural challenges. The welfare paradox For decades, Sweden has served as the prime model of a robust European welfare state. Today, however, structural flaws are emerging, and voters face the consequences in their daily lives. Healthcare is a prime example of this paradox. Despite a tax-funded system with a strong international reputation, Sweden is currently grappling with severe staffing shortages, including a deficit of approximately 2,400 nurses. According to the OECD’s 2025 Sweden health profile, around three-in-ten patients in specialist care wait longer than the guaranteed 90-day period. A rising GDP offers little comfort to patients stuck on long medical waiting lists. Education offers a similarly complex story. While Swedish 15-year-olds scored above the OECD average in mathematics, reading and science in PISA 2022, performance in mathematics and reading had declined compared with 2018. The domestic debate is heavily consumed by the controversy surrounding profit-driven independent schools, known as friskolor. Critics argue that tax-funded education has become overly commercialised, leading to a system where school companies profit from public money. Public patience is wearing thin, with 65 percent of respondents in a 2025 survey supporting a ban on profit-driven school operators. Law and order Beyond the welfare state, the election is heavily shadowed by debates on crime and integration, issues that have been the central focus for the Tidö parties since 2022. Kristersson’s minority government, combining the Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, has relied heavily on the far-right Sweden Democrats to shape policy on migration and law enforcement. While deadly violence has seen a statistical decline, homicides dropped to 84 in 2025, down from 124 in 2020, the emotional weight of gang violence remains a potent political force. Criminal networks have increasingly weaponised youth, leading to an alarming reality where 52 children under the age of 15 faced court in 2025 for murder or attempted murder. On immigration, the Tidö parties claim their strict policies are successfully changing the country's direction. Asylum applications plummeted by 30 percent in 2025 to their lowest levels since 1985, and the government recently passed a law allowing authorities to revoke residence permits for "bad behaviour". The opposition Social Democrats have also adopted stricter language on integration, though they argue that punitive measures must be paired with job access, housing policy, and functional schools. Volatile electoral arithmetic As Sweden approaches the 13 September vote, the political arithmetic remains highly volatile. The right bloc’s survival relies not only on the Sweden Democrats but also on the struggling Liberal Party. If the Liberals fall below the four-percent parliamentary threshold, the right bloc could lose critical seats even if the other three parties perform reasonably well, effectively handing a significant advantage to a Social Democratic-led alternative. Furthermore, the Sweden Democrats are aiming to transition from providing outside support to holding formal cabinet positions. SD’s entering the cabinet would transform Swedish politics and give the opposition a strong campaign argument. While the 2.5 percent growth forecast may inject some economic optimism into the ruling coalition's campaign, the overarching question is will it be enough? With pressing concerns over healthcare, education, and gang violence dominating the public debate, macroeconomic figures alone might not sway voters who feel the social contract is fraying. Coupled with the precarious position of the Liberal Party hovering around the four-percent threshold, the right-wing bloc faces a complex path to victory.