Stubb: Every Russian Threat Should Bring More Support for Ukraine

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Friday that Russia’s escalating hybrid campaign against Europe should trigger the opposite of what Moscow seeks – more support for Ukraine – as the leaders of Finland, Moldova and Ukraine delivered stark warnings in Helsinki about the long-term threat posed by Russia. “The more you intimidate, the more you threaten, the more we’re going to end up supporting Ukraine,” Stubb told the fifth annual Helsinki Security Forum.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “I do think that’s the right approach.” Speaking alongside Moldovan President Maia Sandu, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky joining the forum remotely, Stubb argued that Europe must stop viewing cyberattacks, sabotage and information operations as isolated incidents. “What we have to understand is that these are not one-off attempts from the Russian side, but they are actually a campaign,” Stubb said. “The aim of that campaign is to destabilize us mentally and otherwise, to make sure that we don’t support Ukraine.” The Helsinki Security Forum, held Oct. 2–4 under the theme “Layers of Security,” brings together European policymakers and security experts against the backdrop of Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine and growing concern over hybrid operations elsewhere in Europe. Stubb described the dividing line between war and peace in Europe as increasingly blurred. Other Topics of Interest Russian Drone Strikes Fire-Rescue Unit in Zaporizhzhia Region, Wounding Rescuer A Russian drone hit a fire-rescue unit in Zaporizhzhia region as crews prepared to respond to a call, wounding one rescuer. “The warfare that Russia is conducting in Ukraine is kinetic, traditional warfare, but what it’s conducting in Europe is hybrid,” he said. That campaign, Stubb said, includes daily cyberattacks, sabotage attempts and information warfare. He pointed to recent incidents in Germany and Estonia, where authorities have attributed suspected sabotage operations to Russia or Russian-linked actors. Stubb said governments cannot protect themselves completely against such attacks, particularly because Moscow frequently relies on proxies. The answer, he argued, is attribution, resilience and consequences. Some responses can be public, while others should be delivered privately through diplomatic channels, he said. But the broader message to Moscow should remain unmistakable: increased pressure against Europe will translate into stronger backing for Kyiv. Stubb: Putin’s war achieved the opposite of its objectives Looking beyond the immediate conflict, Stubb argued that Russia’s full-scale invasion has already produced strategic consequences directly opposed to Moscow’s original goals. “The aim of Putin and Russia? The aim was to deny the independence of Ukraine and make it Russian. Well, it became European,” Stubb said. “The aim was to prevent NATO from enlarging. Well, Finland and Sweden would have never joined had the full-blown attack not taken place.” Finland joined NATO in 2023 and Sweden followed in 2024 after both countries abandoned decades of military non-alignment following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Stubb also pointed to rapidly rising European defense expenditure. “The aim was to reduce the defense budgets of European states. And look what’s happened. We’re moving towards 5%,” he said. The cumulative result, according to Stubb, will be a fundamentally altered European security balance after the war. “I think the power balance in Europe will be very different after the war is over to what it is now,” he said. Central to that new balance will be Ukraine. “And on top of that, we have the most modern and effective and experienced army in Ukraine,” Stubb said. “So that means that the whole security scene of Europe will have changed, probably in a way in which Russia did not want.” Stubb cautioned, however, against assuming that Russia will emerge from the war militarily weakened or incapable of presenting another threat. “The Russian military was not capable of modern warfare when this war began, but now they are,” he said. “They are also going to be much stronger when they regroup after the war.” Europe will therefore have to preserve a favorable balance of power while deciding what form any eventual relationship with Moscow might take. Stubb said some future dialogue with Russia would ultimately be necessary, particularly for Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer border with its eastern neighbor. But he stressed that any future engagement with Russia would depend on what kind of Russia emerges after the war, with trust shattered by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Zelensky: Putin wants all of Ukraine Zelensky warned that Putin’s ambitions go far beyond Donbas, saying Moscow still seeks control over all of Ukraine and wants to restore the influence once wielded by the Soviet Union. “His goal is not the east of Ukraine. His goal is not Donbas. His goal is the occupation of our entire country,” Zelensky said. He warned that such ambitions also threaten the Baltic states and other countries bordering Russia, and rejected attempts to seek a neutral middle ground between Moscow and Kyiv. “The role of the experts, with all due respect, is not to be in the middle between good and evil, between the occupier and the victim,” Zelensky said. “Nobody needs mediation between life and death, between those who want to live in democracy and autocracy.”