Stock market today: Will Sensex and Nifty open higher ahead of RBI MPC decision?

Benchmark indices are set for a positive start on Wednesday as investors await the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision later in the day, with markets widely expecting the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged while closely watching its commentary on inflation, growth and liquidity.GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 24,733.50 at 8:28 am, indicating a higher opening for the Nifty 50 after it closed at 24,614.90 in the previous session.The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce its decision at 10 am. According to a Reuters poll, the central bank is expected to leave the repo rate unchanged, while Governor Sanjay Malhotra is likely to maintain a slightly hawkish stance due to inflation risks arising from volatile crude oil prices and a weaker-than-normal monsoon."The RBI is likely to hold the repo rate at 5.25% and retain a neutral stance. But this should not be interpreted as policy inertia. Rather, it would represent a deliberate choice to preserve optionality," said Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings. "The August policy, therefore, is likely to be less about the headline rate and more about the RBI’s assessment of the durability of inflation, the resilience of domestic demand, the trajectory of crude prices, liquidity conditions and the rupee," he added. Markets have rallied strongly since the RBI's last policy meeting on June 5. The Nifty has gained 5.1% during this period, helped by measures aimed at stabilising the rupee and reviving foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. According to Jefferies, the RBI's concessional swap facility has attracted $40.8 billion in forex inflows through July 31, primarily through FCNR(B) deposits and other channels. The brokerage estimates total inflows under the scheme could reach $80 billion to $100 billion before the facility closes for FCNR(B) deposits on September 30.Global cues also remained supportive. Brent crude edged up 0.5% to around $80 a barrel after falling sharply over the previous two sessions, as investors tracked developments in efforts to end the US-Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the positive undertone, traders are expected to remain cautious after the introduction of the new Closing Auction Session (CAS) mechanism for futures and options stocks led to unusual divergence between the Nifty and Sensex over the past two trading sessions, increasing volatility around market close.Investors will also closely monitor Governor Malhotra's post-policy commentary for any guidance on inflation, liquidity conditions and the central bank's outlook for interest rates over the coming months.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- EndsPublished On: Aug 5, 2026 08:54 IST