Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.comBitcoin traded near $78,250 on Thursday morning, down about 0.5% over 24 hours, as investors remained cautious ahead of two crucial US inflation releases. Bitcoin continues to struggle below $80,000, with $77,200-$78,000 providing immediate support. A break below this area could expose $74,000-$75,000. Resistance lies around $79,700-$80,500. The larger supply zone between $83,000 and $86,000 remains the next major hurdle.The latest on-chain picture is more constructive than the subdued price action suggests. Selling near recent range highs is running at less than half the pace seen at August's peak. Long-term holders have also largely stayed out of the latest selling. However, spot conviction remains weak. Momentum has fallen 30%. Meanwhile, Futures open interest has increased to $37.1 billion. Options open interest has risen to $40.1 billion. This combination suggests limited spot buying alongside rising derivatives exposure.Institutional demand has also cooled in recent sessions. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $770 million in net inflows between September 1 and 4. They then recorded $46.6 million in net outflows on September 8. Farside currently shows another $100.7 million in net outflows on September 9.Large-cap altcoins are mostly softer. Ethereum traded near $2,466 (-1.2%), BNB around $737 (-1.8%), XRP near $1.39 (-1.9%), and Solana around $101.4 (-1.9%). TRON was relatively resilient near $0.339, up about 0.4%.Macro remains the key driver. Markets price about a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, although a Reuters poll shows most economists still expect rates to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. US PPI is due today and CPI tomorrow, ahead of the September 15-16 Fed meeting. Brent crude near $101.4 and the US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.84% are adding to inflation concerns.Our advice: Investors should remain measured ahead of inflation data. Excessive leverage should be avoided. The $77,200-$78,000 range is the key support zone. Immediate resistance lies around $79,700-$80,500. Bitcoin needs to clear this area for momentum to improve.
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