Stock Market LIVE Updates, Sensex Today: Markets Likely To Open Lower As Oil Tops $90 Amid US-Iran War

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.comBitcoin's return to about $64,600 on July 20 marks a recovery from the sub-$58,000 levels seen earlier in the month. However, it does not yet amount to a decisive change in market direction. The price has spent 307 days within the broad $60,000-$70,000 range. The latest rebound remains another move inside that structure until buyers overcome the supply above $65,000.The recovery nevertheless rests on firmer ground than the headline price suggests because nearly 6% of Bitcoin's circulating supply last moved between $58,000 and $64,000. This concentration creates a large base of holders whose acquisition costs are close to the current market price of $64,600. This reduced the likelihood of indiscriminate selling at the first sign of weakness.The same cost base also explains why the advance could slow near $65,000-$68,000. Investors who endured the fall below $58,000 may use the recovery to reduce exposure without booking a large loss. This leaves Bitcoin caught between improving support below $64,000 and insufficient conviction above $65,500.ETF flows illustrate this tension more clearly than the price chart because the $424.7 million withdrawal on July 13 was followed by 4 consecutive sessions of inflows. The turnaround brought in $500.2 million between July 14 and July 17. This helped Bitcoin recover after softer US inflation data encouraged investors to return to risk assets.The quality of those flows, however, remains uneven because BlackRock's IBIT received $136.5 million on July 17 while Fidelity's FBTC lost $4.2 million. July's available sessions produced a net inflow of only $200.4 million through July 17, showing that the strong final 4 days largely repaired damage from earlier withdrawals.The macroeconomic backdrop explains why investors are still reluctant to make that commitment despite June headline inflation easing to 3.5%. Core inflation at 2.6% gave the US Federal Reserve room to avoid an immediate increase from its present 3.5%-3.75% policy range. That relief is being challenged by Brent crude trading above $80 a barrel as renewed tensions involving Iran threaten to push energy costs higher again. The July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting will consequently be judged not only on the interest-rate decision but also on how the central bank assesses the conflict between softer June inflation and renewed oil pressure. The US Q2 growth estimate on July 30 will add another layer because Q1 growth was revised to an annualised 2.1%. Bitcoin's position above its 200-week moving average near $62,873 shows that the long-term structure has not broken under these competing pressures.The altcoin market reinforces the same assessment because 4 of the 5 largest non-stablecoin altcoins advanced on July 20, yet none gained even 1%. Ethereum rose 0.64% to about $1,879, XRP gained 0.52% to $1.10, and TRON added 0.29% to trade near $0.3267. Solana led the group with a 0.94% increase to approximately $76.78, while BNB declined 0.36% to about $569. These limited moves, alongside Bitcoin dominance of 58.65%, show that investors are not yet rotating aggressively from Bitcoin into higher-risk assets. The market is therefore recovering through selective institutional buying rather than through the broad speculative participation normally visible during an altcoin-led expansion.Our advice: For investors, $62,800 and $65,500 now define the immediate decision area rather than offering automatic entry or exit signals. A sustained close above $65,500, supported by ETF inflows above $100 million a day, would improve the case for a move towards $68,000 and eventually $70,000. A fall below the $62,873 long-term average would weaken the recovery and place $60,000 at risk, with the deeper cost-basis support near $58,000 becoming relevant again.